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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
6 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

I have a question that I haven't seen anyone ask or answer, and I don't even know whether it can really happen, but somewhere I heard that if storms are strong enough e.g. a supercell/MCS, they can move a completely different direction to the steering wind making it quite irrelevant, if this is true some people possibly may have a few surprises tonight, but like I said I don't know if it is true.

Any facts, opinions or thoughts about this? 

They often move East of the steering flow (right mover) due to clockwise rotation in the northern hemisphere, so they would move even further away from the SE in that case unfortunately.

Edited by Azazel
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
4 minutes ago, Azazel said:

They often move East of the steering flow (right mover) due to clockwise rotation in the northern hemisphere, so they would move even further away from the SE in that case unfortunately.

Don't flows associated with depressions in the northern hemisphere spin anticlockwise? 

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Just now, PerfectStorm said:

Don't flows associated with depressions in the northern hemisphere spin anticlockwise? 

whoops yep, other way around.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Wrong quote

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
8 minutes ago, Azazel said:

whoops yep, other way around.

 I think you are right it is clockwise. Pretty sure. The Coriolis force. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The cloud over us today will make no difference to tonights storm risk. These are not "home grown" storms. They'll initiate and build across N France and then move across the channel. Still some uncertainty exactly "where" the highest risk zone will be, but based on a blend of high res models (discounting GFS/all over low res models) & past experience in these situations, I've created this.

Twitter.thumb.png.75058cd4214d5b5139cfbf787aa83515.png

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Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I think you are right it is clockwise. Pretty sure. The Coriolis force. 

Yes... 

Cyclone - Clockwise

Anticyclone - Anticlockwise

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
6 minutes ago, Selliso said:

Yes... 

Cyclone - Clockwise

Anticyclone - Anticlockwise

 No it is the other way around. Cyclones spinning anticlockwise  is therefor opposite to the Coriolis force but they’re a special case. All air is flowing towards the centre of the low, and this gets deflected to the right causing anticlockwise spin. The Coriolis force on its own is always clockwise. 

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I think you are right it is clockwise. Pretty sure. The Coriolis force. 

That's the phrase I was looking for. In that case then yes it's correct. As the broad movement is spinning anti-clockwise, any smaller features tend to spin off to the right - a bit like being on a children's roundabout and flying off it in the opposite direction (I should know). 

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I have to say the environment west of Paris around Caen, Le Mans, Rennes etc doesn't currently appear to be overly conducive to explosive convection. The flow is NNE so anything firing east of Le Mans will miss the UK but west of here where we should be looking for developments its currently only 20-24C with some showery rain and cloud. To exploit the massive amounts of MUCAPE you'd need to get to 28-30C to see it pop? 

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 No it is the other way around. Cyclones do spin anticlockwise but they’re a special case. All air is flowing towards the centre of the low, and this gets deflected to the right causing anticlockwise spin. The Coriolis force on its own is always clockwise 

A coople of cells over NE Wales, maybe heading into the Merseyside area. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

A very imby post but I hope these track in a more northerly or even in a slightly northwesterly direction. 

Worst case scenario I can think of is it tracking too far east resulting in it being (yet another) Kent Clipper/SE event.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

I need storms to initiate around Rennes to have any kind of chance I think. Sferics to the west of Le Mans would put current developments on a course for Brighton/Kent.

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Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex

Estofex giving Level 2 more hope for storms now for here

 

CB96CD2B-B073-462D-8EBE-BDF1EC5B1C58.jpeg

Edited by JK1
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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
2 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

A very imby post but I hope these track in a more northerly or even in a slightly northwesterly direction. 

Worst case scenario I can think of is it tracking too far east resulting in it being (yet another) Kent Clipper/SE event.

I agree! Westward shift!

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Yep a cell coming towards me now. Don’t hold out much hope with the current wind profile but we’ll see. 

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

I dont know the accuracy of this but this website is displaying a much more different model to the reset of the forcasts, your point of views on this please storm.thumb.png.c1c1cdd4ac4c9714ba61ece3d3c101df.png

It isn't.

It's saying the likelihood of severe storms is strongest in the south eastern corner up to London, decreasing the further west you go, which is what all models are pretty much saying.

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Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs

Ah okay. Was just a bit confused as media like met office, bbc weather etc on there video forcasts were displaying the storm to be more towards the west than east, was just confused from the two, thankyou for the information

 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
5 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

I dont know the accuracy of this but this website is displaying a much more different model to the reset of the forcasts, your point of views on this please storm.thumb.png.c1c1cdd4ac4c9714ba61ece3d3c101df.png

Very good & reputable organisation. Rare to see a level 2 issued for the UK too.

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