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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull

Bloody typical. Storms forecast the one night I'm away. Flying out of Heathrow at 8 tonight. Thankfully storms look to be much later so hopefully no delays. 

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Posted
  • Location: Calne, Wiltshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Storms
  • Location: Calne, Wiltshire

MO app suggesting the sun will come out this afternoon. Does that improve my chances of a thunderstorm later? Was expecting grey skies all day

95008093-21CA-4089-A4C8-A8F6E921205C.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex

Any chances of storms in Worthing area today or tonight

I wait 

31FB0C25-F38B-419D-A4AB-A6FC9271D81F.gif

Edited by JK1
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I'm a bit busy to  make a better assessment at the moment but the UKV has shifted slightly West, not by much. It shows a larger area too, but I fear the emphasis is more towards rainfall.

(For tonight in the South)

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Latest ICON showing at least heavy showers (possibly thunderstorms) across the West Midlands, as well as that cluster of more organized storms up through the London area. 

 

image.thumb.png.8ec1e8b271818258e87e0f902c4e24ce.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Met Office radar forecasts for today:

image.thumb.png.fb8a357877831d3f92a0813ce0b2b29d.png  image.thumb.png.0ad5a5c62bc4304c2808c0d2f5ec7b7f.pngimage.thumb.png.c2bc8ffa58710b84c5dc49f7e2a42ef0.pngimage.thumb.png.77a35f966c5ddd8a882df2083c85a67f.png   

Then for the main event tonight...
image.thumb.png.0457e82fdcf4fb339793297960414b85.pngimage.thumb.png.513f6feebaa764344a096c684b8eb2bb.pngimage.thumb.png.cfd721562c416b0962a92ac5d67e63ca.pngimage.thumb.png.df27d176b3186ffa706b0b74f403718d.png   

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Met Office radar forecasts for today:

image.thumb.png.fb8a357877831d3f92a0813ce0b2b29d.png  image.thumb.png.0ad5a5c62bc4304c2808c0d2f5ec7b7f.pngimage.thumb.png.c2bc8ffa58710b84c5dc49f7e2a42ef0.pngimage.thumb.png.77a35f966c5ddd8a882df2083c85a67f.png   

Then for the main event tonight...
image.thumb.png.0457e82fdcf4fb339793297960414b85.pngimage.thumb.png.513f6feebaa764344a096c684b8eb2bb.pngimage.thumb.png.cfd721562c416b0962a92ac5d67e63ca.pngimage.thumb.png.df27d176b3186ffa706b0b74f403718d.png   

Thanks, having doubts whether tonight will be just a mass of heavy rain and nothing that will light up the sky!

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5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

....................but I fear the emphasis is more towards rainfall......

Rain Rain Rain in Spain.

Looking at the radar, we see that the only lightening on the horizon is north of the Scottish border. The celtic deities are dualing up there on the Grampians.

Further south, we see a slow moving area of humid drizzle moving across the South East and across the home counties. 

Across the Channel, just reaching across the Channel Islands now, we see a large area of rain. In most cases whereby the South East benefits from migrating continental storms, these are already highly active prior the crossing the English Channel. At present we ses just large, disorganised rain. That being said, with sufficient heating and decent convection during the day today, by the time this area of rain reaches the South coast, we might have a different picture.

For Tuesday , some models show the likelyhood of storms highest across Cambridgeshire into north-western East Anglia and the Boston area. That is probably the best bet for Tuesday while today, the South East looks as good as anywhere

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SDC10900.thumb.JPG.8ec8c15f3dd5df720ed0818814c7c32c.JPG

Just an old photo from 2014 stormy sky near Heywood, Bury. Sometimes neat stuff comes to you. Lawnchairs and a flask of tea

Edited by Guest
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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
32 minutes ago, Calneee said:

MO app suggesting the sun will come out this afternoon. Does that improve my chances of a thunderstorm later? Was expecting grey skies all day

95008093-21CA-4089-A4C8-A8F6E921205C.jpeg

You have raised a good point there, sunshine, 24C in this type of humid airmass would trigger off local thundery showers.

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Latest GFS puts the highest risk (at least going by the highest rainfall totals) across the heart of England (I.e. Oxford to Leicester). Looks more like an area of thundery rain. 

image.thumb.png.0bba55192e70fa6d897457b6a236d2fb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Feels muggy outside although it’s been misty all morning and it doesn’t look like it will lift anytime soon. 

 

Im doubtful the sun will even make an appearance in these parts today. 

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Latest GFS puts the highest risk (at least going by the highest rainfall totals) across the heart of England (I.e. Oxford to Leicester). Looks more like an area of thundery rain. 

image.thumb.png.0bba55192e70fa6d897457b6a236d2fb.png

I'm inclined to agree - unless we are of course on the cusp of an absolutely monstrous MCS.

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

Morning all, certainly potential for storms today but alas not for mby, forecast has now got us down for a light shower this afternoon, maybe a bit of heavier rain overnight but nothing thundery or noteworthy, very cool and cloudy here at the mo and breeze starting to pick up. 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Metoffice rainfall radar and gfs now put most of the action across the midlands!!ridiculous move west compared to this time yesterday!!east anglia and south east look to miss out!!could be just thundery rain and nothing more though!!

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Sun is coming out at last. 19.9°C. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Shame tonight's storms don't arrive earlier as here we miss out on lightning during the night. Might be case of getting up at 4/5am

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
1 hour ago, Harry said:

I was just about to post @BrickFielder - while there seems to be a lot of consensus on storms tonight, I am struggling to find a model which actually shows any instability. Most models show the arrival of intense precipitation around 0z to 06z tomorrow however GFS and WRF (which give us MUCAPE models) do lot have any instability arriving until after this period. This is despite MetO, Estofex and ConvectiveWeather all suggesting thunderstorms.

Help!?!?!? 

Edit - Euro4 (which I know many members rely on as a good model in the short term) favouring a more westerly track (C/S England) but not arriving until circa 03z.

Hi Harry, I'm not quite sure what you mean - nearly all models have reasonable CAPE over the English Channel, SE England and East Anglia tonight?

viewimage.pbx.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Metoffice rainfall radar and gfs now put most of the action across the midlands!!ridiculous move west compared to this time yesterday!!east anglia and south east look to miss out!!could be just thundery rain and nothing more though!!

I think that would relate to the warming up of the atmosphere in the Midlands, like a pan warming popcorn.  Other locaitons, N England/ East, SE have had rain last night, and today that will hamper that solar energy , although elevated. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

I'll take a punt and say that those further West will see a more dynamic area of heavy rain - of course this may include embedded thunderstorms with the main threat being high rainfall totals leading to flooding. More pronounced, scattered thunderstorms may develop to the east of the main band which could cluster into an MCS (but really who knows!). 
 

image.thumb.png.67f469ce873adb477958aed6c91e530a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
6 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Hi Harry, I'm not quite sure what you mean - nearly all models have reasonable CAPE over the English Channel, SE England and East Anglia tonight?

viewimage.pbx.png

Indeed, the MUCAPE has been modelled further towards N.France/BELUX during the weekend but has been slowly drifting west over the past runs. But just one of many other ingredients

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Sferics kicked off in Lancashire. 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
29 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Latest GFS puts the highest risk (at least going by the highest rainfall totals) across the heart of England (I.e. Oxford to Leicester). Looks more like an area of thundery rain. 

image.thumb.png.0bba55192e70fa6d897457b6a236d2fb.png

I wouldn’t pay too much attention to GFS, it’s too low resolution to pick out storms, it will just show a mass of precip. Stick to the High res models 

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