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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Convective Weathers thoughts for tomorrow and tomorrow night!

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

ConvectiveWeather update for the NW...

A second area of interest would then be Wales, perhaps the W Midlands, moving NW-wards across the Irish Sea towards eastern Ireland - perhaps expanding across to NW England later in the night. Given the magnitude of CAPE/shear, lightning will tend to be very frequent with any thunderstorms that do develop, accompanied by the threat of hail, gusty winds and locally very heavy rain.

Given the large uncertainty about storm placement at present, it is difficult to highlight specific areas for a MDT. We have issued one where there is better multi-model consensus, but it is acknowledged that scattered thunderstorms will develop elsewhere as well. It may well be that two main clusters evolve within the MDT, with a relative minima lightning activity in the middle. We will continue to monitor trends throughout the day, and may issue further updates if necessary.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Yes!!!! I'm in Convective wx's MDT zone!! Always a great sign!

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Posted
  • Location: oxford, uk
  • Location: oxford, uk
1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

That seems a little too Far East for initiation  

i think so too, but it shows there's instability now moving northwards 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
Just now, LightningLover said:

Yes!!!! I'm in Convective wx's MDT zone!! Always a great sign!

I was today but it's been cancelled

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Just to add that ConvectiveWeather hasn't downgraded the MDT zone for tonight, they're just withholding issuing it on the updated forecast until there's a better idea of where the likeliest impact/s is going to be. 

Edited by SNOW_JOKE
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, high teens to low 20's,sunny and convective
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset.
2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Noticeable cells now popping up North of Northampton... might not be a bust just yet?

just had some spots of rain here in rugby

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I have a banging headache all of a sudden.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

I like to think that the ‘Bordeaux Ascent’ is a meeting of trollied French meteorologists trying to climb the steps leading up to the office to review the latest data

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I have a banging headache all of a sudden.

Good sign 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
11 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

ConvectiveWeather update for the NW...

A second area of interest would then be Wales, perhaps the W Midlands, moving NW-wards across the Irish Sea towards eastern Ireland - perhaps expanding across to NW England later in the night. Given the magnitude of CAPE/shear, lightning will tend to be very frequent with any thunderstorms that do develop, accompanied by the threat of hail, gusty winds and locally very heavy rain.

Given the large uncertainty about storm placement at present, it is difficult to highlight specific areas for a MDT. We have issued one where there is better multi-model consensus, but it is acknowledged that scattered thunderstorms will develop elsewhere as well. It may well be that two main clusters evolve within the MDT, with a relative minima lightning activity in the middle. We will continue to monitor trends throughout the day, and may issue further updates if necessary.

 Is this still valid though? I hope so .

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, high teens to low 20's,sunny and convective
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset.

deffo raining here now

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Sferics!

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

Could be the dribs and drabs of the leftovers of the rain band moving North. I'd be looking to bristol or Cardiff somewhere to pop off the odd sharp red/purple echo.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

Sferics!

NW Wales,not where we want them.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Now that the (I can promise you) very warm and humid air has arrived, the grey skies have broken into swathes of what appear to me (in the dusky light) Ac with some hints of AcCas. As this trundles north perhaps we’ll see something a bit more electric sparking off...visually its going in the right direction for you further north. Let’s see!

edit - so I see it’s started for some. Good luck and enjoy (and stay safe!)

Edited by Harry
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