Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[ChezWeather]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

I just checked their website and it doesn’t look like anything is different.

They just posted an amended forecast to Facebook, can't link it as I'm on mobile 

Edit: here's the map

 

Edited June 23, 2019 by ChezWeather

[viking_smb]

same here

[Zak M]

A little thunderstorm has developed over NW Spain, perhaps that could be a sign of something for the south?

[SarahWxm]

Absolutely piddling down here but no sign of any storms! I have a feeling in my bones this ain’t going to happen here now

[Ben Sainsbury]

Some large convective raindrops beginning to fall here from a few developing showers. Looks like this will be the focal point for later.

[Mapantz]

15Z UKV has some clonking rain rates in that zone for tomorrow night:

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

I just checked their website and it doesn’t look like anything is different.

Looks like their warnings are unchanged, they just highlighted the highest risk area.

[SP1986]

Some heavy rain now here in Northwest England, but not thundery. Touch and go as to whether thundery weather will affect western coastal parts of England. Liverpool TAF says no.

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

15Z UKV has some clonking rain rates in that zone for tomorrow night:

Yes please

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

15Z UKV has some clonking rain rates in that zone for tomorrow night:

Has that moved further west  compared to this mornings run!!the gfs has defo moved that band of heavy rain further west into the midlands where as the 00z run had it into east anglia!!thats a big shift west within 2 runs!!

[Zak M]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

15Z UKV has some clonking rain rates in that zone for tomorrow night:

Aaanndddddd I'm directly in that zone once again

[Mapantz]

Just now, shaky said:

Has that moved further west  compared to this mornings run!!the gfs has defo moved that band of heavy rain further west into the midlands where as the 00z run had it into east anglia!!thats a big shift west within 2 runs!!

UKV was slightly further East (Kent clipper) on yesterday's 21Z and last nights 00Z. It has moved slightly further West throughout today's runs, but stabilised around the area I highlighted.

[Harry]

Just gone back outside post seeing that Towering AcCas and it does feel warmer. Plume is on the way in 

[BrickFielder]

The dawn chorus this morning was fairly clear which is often a sign that the air is calm and fairly moist. I did wonder whether surface based storms would develop today but the lapse rates did not look promising and the cloud cover limited temperatures.

During tonight an area of increased lapse rates moves in across the western half of the UK. This I think could trigger one or two elevated storms. Here I am looking at an area from Bristol across eastern wales and across parts of the west midlands. There is a remote chance that tail end storms could reach down to the boundary layer. I am also looking at Lincolnshire and northwards up the east coast.

[Lu.]

Incredibly humid here on the south coast. 

BBC just updated to thunder around midnight / 1am 

big clouds are starting to appear

 

[Harry]

Just now, Lu. said:

Incredibly humid here on the south coast. 

BBC just updated to thunder around midnight / 1am 

big clouds are starting to appear

 

Whereabouts are you @Lu.?

[Mapantz]

Just now, Harry said:

Whereabouts are you @Lu.?

Rotate your phone to landscape mode. 

[BrickFielder]

Risks of elevated storms tomorrow night as well.  Looking at forecast skewT's surface based storms during tomorrow daytime are not out of the question either. The moist upper layers mean that cloud cover is likely to affect convection tomorrow as well, but it pretty touch and go whether storms develop.

[TJS1998Tom]

Could this be something brewing for later?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

11 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Aaanndddddd I'm directly in that zone once again

The rain is expected to be very heavy in that highlighted area, but the majority of the electrical activity tends to take place to the eastern side of the system.

I’m hoping to find an area outside that ridiculous rain band - had enough of heavy incessant rain spoiling the view of the action

[Lu.]

8 minutes ago, Harry said:

Whereabouts are you @Lu.?

Down in Portsmouth. We’ve barely had any sunshine today but the temp (going by the car has been 23 steady) 

[oliverek7]

17 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Aaanndddddd I'm directly in that zone once again

I’m on that boundary south of London, please hit there too

[ancientsolar]

some heavy showers forming around West and Nmid Wales 

 

[ancientsolar]

is there a bit of convergence happening in Wales?

[poseidon]

32 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

15Z UKV has some clonking rain rates in that zone for tomorrow night:

ECM is indicating same area and is also now showing very heavy rain. Big question is will this disappear East into the sea again.

Edited June 23, 2019 by poseidon