Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[The PIT]

Oooh odd spot of rain now. Watching England Women V Cameroon plenty of stormy weather on the pitch.

[P-M]

To everyone that posted after me with kosher discussion and points thank you. Although not guaranteed there's no need for so much pessimism this early on. 

Fingers crossed for anyone wanting to see a storm an interesting few days coming up for sure. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

A complicated picture over the next couple of days as it pertains to thunderstorm development. Outbreaks of rain are already occurring widely across SW England, Wales, the Midlands and NW England with some heavier bursts in what is currently a well capped, humid air mass. Later this evening an even more humid airmass arrives from the south along with a shortwave trough and at this point we will likely see some elevated destabilisation of the plume. As storms are expected to form above the boundary layer, CAPE charts at the surface are of no use when predicting how much energy these storms will be able to tap into. Likewise, surface conditions such as temperature and how much sunshine has occurred in the day will have no bearing either. It is the parameters higher up we need to look at. Although, this being said, tonight does not look as conducive to big storms as it previously did.

My map shows 3 main risk areas amongst a more widespread grey box which is there as in my view there is a chance a storm could pop up almost anywhere over the next couple of days.

The blue box is for tonight's heavy showers and possibly elevated storms rumbling north overnight. The first signs of thunder would probably be over mid-Wales and the West Midlands later this evening before heading into NW England by midnight to join with further heavy showers and thunder that will have by then developed across the north of the Midlands into Northern England. As these move north into Scotland towards tomorrow morning they will lose any electrical activity they do have, but still produce a lot of rain well into Monday with a flooding risk to the north of the blue box.

The purple box is for a more potent area of storms that could develop tomorrow. There is some model divergence on whether these develop but if they do then there is a risk of severe thunderstorms and these could bring the risk of large hail and gusty winds. NMM has over 2000j/kg of MUCAPE to be utilised along with 20-25 knots of deep layer shear. I have put the time on as from 00z Monday as in my opinion there is also a slightly higher risk of storms overnight across Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire than what there is in the wider blue box.

The orange box is relating to what will likely be the strongest storms of this 2 day period, which will be crossing the channel, possibly as an elevated MCS, from France later tomorrow. Please note there is still uncertainty as to where this will be and my box covers the most likely area. In reality, it could miss the UK entirely and head through the Low Countries, it could be further west which would then bring the Midlands into play too. However, it is likely that most of the thundery activity will be on the eastern side of the system whereby it engages some very high MUCAPE, but on its eastern side there could be severe storms with very frequent lightning, large hail, gusty winds and torrential rainfall of 40-60mm/hr. This will need watching tomorrow and I have already booked off Tuesday in preparation for a storm chase on Monday night.

An excellent and informative report on what is an unpredictable set of events. I was lucky enough to get Tuesday off too, plus I will be working in central London tomo so its a fairly leisurely jaunt from there to the SE

[ChezWeather]

Post Removed

Edited June 23, 2019 by ChezWeather
Off Topic for current storms

[Supacell]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

An excellent and informative report on what is an unpredictable set of events. I was lucky enough to get Tuesday off too, plus I will be working in central London tomo so its a fairly leisurely jaunt from there to the SE

Thank you. I wish the SE was a leisurely jaunt for me, but if things come off favourable then it will be worth the 400 mile round trip  

[Zak M]

Hey @Supacell Is there a chance of Bedford seeing any thunderstorms from Monday night or early Tuesday morning?

[Bangers & Flash]

Light rain here currently from what I’m guessing is mid-level cloud

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Supacell said:

Thank you. I wish the SE was a leisurely jaunt for me, but if things come off favourable then it will be worth the 400 mile round trip  

Ooof! It’s a good bit of the world when storms do turn up though - I would say it’s definately worth the effort tomo, like a turbo-charged last Tuesday if all goes well. Could be a memorable night

[viking_smb]

had 2 rumbles of low rumbling thunder at 15:35 today whilst I was on safetyboat for the club. it looked like it was coming from the barrage.

[Harry]

As a Man of Kent, somewhere south or east of Ashford is good viewing territory. Spent 20 years of summers in and around Dymchurch and it’s all flat like the US plains - but as I read quite accurately recently, lots of roads are hedge lined but a find a good gate/entry to a field and it’s flat flat flat 

[Chris.R]

 I’m not bothered about not getting big storms. Anything at or above 0.5 strikes per minute would do nicely. That’s the average strike rate in the last 10 years here. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm past the point of caring about tonight now. I'm going out in a bit so if no storms, I'd rather it stayed dry.

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

had 2 rumbles of low rumbling thunder at 15:35 today whilst I was on safetyboat for the club. it looked like it was coming from the barrage.

Are you sure? Because lightningmaps.org and blitzortung.org don't show any lightning strikes in the UK from the past 24 hours.

[viking_smb]

I was sure mate, race officer and myself both heard it as he was on the committee boat and I was on one of our ribs, might of been elevated as I couldn't find anything on the sites either.

Edited June 23, 2019 by viking_smb

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

I was sure mate, race officer and myself both heard it, might of been elevated as I couldn't find anything on the sites either.

Weird. It could of just been that the lightning detecting sites like those didn't detect it, because that can happen sometimes.

[Frosty hollows]

49 minutes ago, The PIT said:

A layer of nimbus stratus with the sun just visible and a few cumulus clouds scuttling along underneath. Wish it would rain would get those people who think everyone in the neighborhood wants to listen to their radio go inside.

One of my pet dislikes about a warm spell. Only I am allowed to open my doors and turn my radio up

[A.J]

8 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Weird. It could of just been that the lightning detecting sites like those didn't detect it, because that can happen sometimes.

it happens a lot to be honest

[Frosty hollows]

46 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There's a line in a song that goes, 'if I hadn't seen such riches, I could live with being poor'

The fact that a massive convective carrot was dangled in front of our noses for a couple of days, only for the set up to then become unfavourable, pixxes me off.

Oh sit down!

[Met4Cast]

16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm past the point of caring about tonight now. I'm going out in a bit so if no storms, I'd rather it stayed dry.

Good to see it's not just winter you're grumpy in, at least you're consistent! 

[StormChaseUK]

No thunder recorded yet today.

Very humid behind that rain band, feels tropical now. All depends if the destabilizing can take place this evening and tonight OR its just rain 

[Supacell]

25 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Hey @Supacell Is there a chance of Bedford seeing any thunderstorms from Monday night or early Tuesday morning?

Too much uncertainty to give a definite answer I am afraid. Current model output would say your chances are good provided there is no eastward shift. It may come down to radar watching and seeing where things develop over northern France tomorrow.

[TJS1998Tom]

The wind has certainly dropped compared to how it was earlier this afternoon

[The PIT]

raining mostly light now.

[Methuselah]

Here you go, guys: the latest from the Met...and a 'bonus' I can't get rid of!

 

[Sun & Tanned]

Hi everyone.

Could anyone tell me if High Wycombe and Aylesbury Bucks areas are likely to get anything tonight or next few days?

I have a child who is extremely scared of thunder and I'd love to help him get over it if we are in the firing line.

Extremely close here at present. 

Thanks for your help guy's.