Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Stormstalker]

Gone very dark in Stourbridge very humid too

[Azazel]

22 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

12Z UKV shows the IoW/Portsmouth/Bognor to be in a reasonable place. Usual caveats apply, probably more so due to many changes already today.

Almost there.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I’m hearing a convective zone is likely to be present around Birmingham from approximately 6pm.

Nocturnal fun and games not until later - 11pm approx

[tomp456]

23 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

12Z UKV shows the IoW/Portsmouth/Bognor to be in a reasonable place. Usual caveats apply, probably more so due to many changes already today.

Oooo. 

Perfect!

[Arnie Pie]

Begining to see through the lower level clouds ( which, oddly... are moving towards the west),

to the higher clouds which are showing convection....It will be an interesting few hours...by that i mean Week

Edited June 23, 2019 by Arnie Pie

[Hirudine]

Just started raining here, nice smell of petrichor.

[Josh Rubio]

Looks particularly dull outside, for this time of the year and time of day. Clouds have a blue and yellow tinge to them. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Do I try and head north to intercept... or can I really be bothered

[The PIT]

Downgrades continuing we're now down to one warning on Tuesday not that the warnings are very reliable in regards to Thundery activity.

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Downgrades continuing we're now down to one warning on Tuesday not that the warnings are very reliable in regards to Thundery activity.

The warning for your area is on Monday. It was actually one warning before, it's just that the starting time was later on today, overlapping in to tomorrow morning. Now that timings have changed, it arrives tomorrow instead.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Mapantz

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Downgrades continuing we're now down to one warning on Tuesday not that the warnings are very reliable in regards to Thundery activity.

That’s quite an IMBY statement - it looks like there have been a lot of upgrades for the London area in particular

[Harry]

Interesting developments with the 06z WRF-NMM.

It wants to start initial developments tonight much further south than the 00z run then (as we know) it all swings north.

This screen grab is for 22:00 tonight.

[The PIT]

7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The warning for your area is on Monday. It was actually one warning before, it's just that the starting time was later on today, overlapping in to tomorrow morning. Now that timings have changed, it arrives tomorrow instead.

Nope three warnings Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday. Although the local forecast with the warning banner contradicted the warnings which i always find amusing.

[Tim Bland]

55 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

12Z UKV shows the IoW/Portsmouth/Bognor to be in a reasonable place. Usual caveats apply, probably more so due to many changes already today.

Is this for tomorrow night?

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Interesting developments with the 06z WRF-NMM.

It wants to start initial developments tonight much further south than the 00z run then (as we know) it all swings north.

This screen grab is for 22:00 tonight.

How  much trust would you put in that though? At 5pm, it doesn't match the radar very well.

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Nope three warnings Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday. Although the local forecast with the warning banner contradicted the warnings which i always find amusing.

The warnings overlapped, they aren't separate warnings.

[TJS1998Tom]

Clouding over a bit now 

[sparky1972]

1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Clouding over a bit now 

been cloudy down here most of the day, temp currently 18.2c according to my weather station, dropped about 3c in the last hour or so.

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is this for tomorrow night?

Yap. It does show showers flirting with Southern coasts earlier on in the day. We shall see!

[Harry]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

How  much trust would you put in that though? At 5pm, it doesn't match the radar very well.

Not a huge amount especially given it’s the 06z run. It is however my model of choice at short range and usually not far off the mark. The latest Euro4 model also has initial outbreaks further south though not quite as south as WRF. 

Breeze definitely picking up here and very leaden skies. Real juice not expected for another 5 - 6 hours yet (which interestingly is what I think the WRF is picking up on - the leading edge of the plume destabilising as it wafts in from France.

[The PIT]

Plenty of false echoes on the radar today which is making it difficult to see what further developments if any are happening. We've had several echoes pass overhead but nothing at ground level.

[Zak M]

Does anyone have any thoughts on where Monday's nighttime storms are going to take place?

[Gord]

Everything is going as forecasted so far here. Some heavy rain pushing through now. We may see some thundery activity here overnight? Forecast says no right now but I think it might still be worth looking out for.

Maybe better chances with some freshly developed ones tomorrow morning before we hand the baton over to the south east.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Gord

[Snowyowl9]

3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Plenty of false echoes on the radar today which is making it difficult to see what further developments if any are happening. We've had several echoes pass overhead but nothing at ground level.

Virga.

[staplehurst]

43 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Begining to see through the lower level clouds ( which, oddly... are moving towards the west),

to the higher clouds which are showing convection....It will be an interesting few hours...by that i mean Week

a good example of the directional shear present right now - easterly at the surface, turning to a southerly aloft.