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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
2 minutes ago, MetWeather said:

All the models just keep pushing main severe risk further and further back, now its Saturday and I feel like it will never happen. The UK weather is terrible. 

Hot weather here has seemingly failed to result in an explosive breakdown since about 2015. It just gets shunted away to the east and replaced with drizzle it’s weird.

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London
2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Hot weather here has seemingly failed to result in an explosive breakdown since about 2015. It just gets shunted away to the east and replaced with drizzle it’s weird.

Yep. We finally thought we would get something interesting and the moment it started to materialise, it disappeared. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Hot weather here has seemingly failed to result in an explosive breakdown since about 2015. It just gets shunted away to the east and replaced with drizzle it’s weird.

I think some selective memory is going on here, been plenty of times where hot weather leads to a thundery breakdown but it's perhaps not always too widespread so not always memorable. 

As for today, then I know you shouldn't read too much into the forecasts and graphics but any potential seems to of dampened down somewhat, as ever it's a wait and see type of process. 

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

What a complicated set up over the next couple of days. I will try and post my thoughts later today, but at present the models are all over the place, even for within the next 24 hours. However, don't let GFS CAPE charts fool you, there will still be a lot of energy available later today onwards. MUCAPE chart for 3am tomorrow morning. No, it is not the 3000j/kg that was being forecast a few days ago, but still widely over 1000j/kg. Granted storms would be elevated, but I do not think storm lovers in Eastbourne on Tuesday night would have been complaining that the storms weren't surface based .

MUCAPE.thumb.png.0628c4fbeabdf42792e16f4c5614f226.png

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
6 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think some selective memory is going on here, been plenty of times where hot weather leads to a thundery breakdown but it's perhaps not always too widespread so not always memorable. 

As for today, then I know you shouldn't read too much into the forecasts and graphics but any potential seems to of dampened down somewhat, as ever it's a wait and see type of process. 

Yes, sorry I should’ve added IMBY. 

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London

I remember when I was little, probably 5 or 6, (I can't remember what year) It was a summers day and suddenly it got dark, I remember seeing the tree in my garden bending all over the place. Suddenly the sky went black (I remember it was summer) and there was loads of lightning, pink, blue, white. It was pouring and I thought there was a tornado. I remember looking at the side of the road and seeing water streaming into the drains. I hope I see that again this Thursday or This week!!

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
3 minutes ago, MetWeather said:

I remember when I was little, probably 5 or 6, (I can't remember what year) It was a summers day and suddenly it got dark, I remember seeing the tree in my garden bending all over the place. Suddenly the sky went black (I remember it was summer) and there was loads of lightning, pink, blue, white. It was pouring and I thought there was a tornado. I remember looking at the side of the road and seeing water streaming into the drains. I hope I see that again this Thursday or This week!!

Wizard of Oz was a childhood staple on Christmas Day afternoon.....

Edited by matty40s
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
1 hour ago, P-M said:

Well I've got me fingers and toes crossed. In Washington I'm covered under the slight and literally just outside of the moderate. If storms develop as close as that moderate zone then it's not much of a push for my neck of the woods. Either way some potential interest for many this evening as long as storms initiate! 

 

Happy hunting / radar tracking! 

I am just inside the MDT zone so hopefully I will get a sleepless night 

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Meto have updated their yellow advisories for the beginning of the week. 

A notable shift towards favouring the Eastern half of the UK now with large parts of Wales and SW England warning free. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Updated warning for Tuesday has removed northern England

00:00 Tue 25 to 23:59 Tue 25

Further thunderstorms are likely, these potentially severe, bringing a risk of flooding and disruption to travel.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds
  • There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost

Reason for update

Warning updated to reflect where thunderstorms considered most likely.

Thunderstorms are expected across parts of England at times on Tuesday. Storms are likely to spread north from France during the early hours, before most likely clearing into the North Sea by day. During the day there is then a small risk of potentially severe thunderstorms developing over land. Whilst most locations will miss storms altogether, where they do develop, 20-30 mm of rain could fall in one hour, with a few spots perhaps seeing as much as 40-60 mm in one hour, which is very unusual for the UK. Large hail, lightning and gusty winds are also likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-06-25&id=807af5ca-ef2a-4445-a269-0e4c33498f60&details

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Can anyone confirm this:

If the lightning activity tends toward the RHS (eastern edge) of theta-e elevated storms would a better place be around the Peterborough area for more electrical action later this evening?

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

A SE England event on Tuesday early hours according to the update.

For the second Tuesday in a row Eastbourne could be the sweet spot for viewings.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Oh dear

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
30 minutes ago, AWD said:

Meto have updated their yellow advisories for the beginning of the week. 

A notable shift towards favouring the Eastern half of the UK now with large parts of Wales and SW England warning free. 

Ye looks pretty disappointing for the SW and W country now. Although we won't really know until it all appears on radar etc, the first round of storms seem to initiate North of us and then anything that develop in the channel goes on a NE trajectory through C/E England.

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

and they removed the yellow warning for today, for the north of England, and north wales.

south-west not under any warnings any longer

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Posted
  • Location: SUNDERLAND TYNE & WEAR
  • Weather Preferences: not fussed
  • Location: SUNDERLAND TYNE & WEAR
Quote

 

I was looking for info about lightening and the camping out risk (my son is a scout leader) and he will camping out for a few days ... well I know you have more chance of winning the lottery jackpot than being struck! Well, I come across informative this pdf article 'Lightning Risk Management'

(attached). It a interesting read for for the less informed ( learners like myself ) - so apologies to more knowledgeable or if it has been posted before! 

Lightning-Risk-Management.pdf

Edited by Mercury Rising
inserted quote box not sure how to delete it
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Posted
  • Location: warminster Wiltshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: warminster Wiltshire

There gose my summer not seeing a thunderstorm in South West this year in Warminster in Wiltshire at the moment

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
3 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I think Wales, West Midlands could see big storms this evening , tonight.

I hope so but it seems the MO think the main risk is further north across Northern England and North Wales. Although the AROME as someone mentioned earlier is further south.

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Posted
  • Location: warminster Wiltshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: warminster Wiltshire

It looks I have went see when will get a thunderstorm this in South and West England and I will went to July and August. 

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
6 minutes ago, tomdewey said:

It looks I have went see when will get a thunderstorm this in South and West England and I will went to July and August. 

Are best chance might be next weekend when the heat breaks down but again its to far out so could all change again.

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Posted
  • Location: warminster Wiltshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: warminster Wiltshire

I just look at Warminster picture weather forecast and no yellow warning for thunderstorms on there and but Salisbury picture weather forecast has a yellow warning for thunderstorms

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

If I’m correct, there’s an absolutely tiny chance something might pop up this far south this afternoon. Clutching at straws but it’s all I’ve got.

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