Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, TomW said:

Isn't this related to the surface based storms, I thought it still looked good for elevated storms sunday night into monday

Monday night is the better risk for Southern areas. Sunday night doesn't show anything particularly noteworthy across the Southwest of England.

[kold weather]

Have to say the profile of air coming up has more than a whiff of central US early summer about it. Models suggesting some huge cape present.

Normally I'd be very sceptical as dews as high as forecast usually is a fallacy...but the profile looks so extreme that we may get air that genuinely resembles the tropics next week. Of course it will be much more moderated compared to down there thanks to the far cooler says, but impressive either way!

[Thunder and Lightning]

Insane Charts for Thursday on 6z GFS across the south of England (that's me!  ). Lots of Helicity, Bulk shear and High Cape! 

[Harry]

13 minutes ago, MetWeather said:

Insane Charts for Thursday on 6z GFS across the south of England (that's me!  ). Lots of Helicity, Bulk shear and High Cape! 

And it can all evaporate in a run or two. I’m optimistic about the coming week but trying to keep expectations in check 

[Thunder and Lightning]

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

And it can all evaporate in a run or two. I’m optimistic about the coming week but trying to keep expectations in check 

I know. I don't want to jinx it or something but Thursday does have some consistency with helicity and bulk shear.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Google weather have downgraded to pleasant warm and sunny with a little rain but no storms at all, albeit isolated ones (possibly) on Tuesday.

That said it’s one of the worst forecasting models I know, but it’s quite good for working out temperature trends for the coming week

[ChezWeather]

Well looking a current models/warnings I think I may be slightly too far SE here, probably going to head up into the Peak District to a high vantage point such as Stanage Edge or Holme Moss

Although Euro4 does look promising for the Midlands/North in general

 

 

[Azazel]

3 hours ago, LightningLover said:

It's funny that you say that; One of my friends from school, who lives in Ticehurst, says he saw something similar. He described it as 'A bright blue ball that raced across our field after a big bolt of lightning'. So he's not alone, then!

I’ve seen ball lighting.

it was late at night, I have a feeling it may have been 2002-2003.

i had college in the morning but was woken up by my room lighting up and the grumbling sound of thunder.

it was about 2am I think. I decided to get up and have a cheeky cigarette out of my bedroom window (parents didn’t know I smoked) and watch the light show for a bit.

the storm was a little way off to the east, so not directly overhead, and was lighting up every few seconds.

suddenly, there was a particularly bright flash which felt very close and when it had gone, a ball of light was hovering in my neighbours garden about a foot above the ground. It was white/blueish in colour, about the size of a football and swayed side to side in a very smooth and natural motion. The underside of it looked like it was ‘dripping’ molten light. It made no sound and probably stayed there for about 20 seconds before it quickly shrunk and disappeared. 

[LightningLover]

3 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I’ve seen ball lighting.

it was late at night, I have a feeling it may have been 2002-2003.

i had college in the morning but was woken up by my room lighting up and the grumbling sound of thunder.

it was about 2am I think. I decided to get up and have a cheeky cigarette out of my bedroom window (parents didn’t know I smoked) and watch the light show for a bit.

the storm was a little way off to the east, so not directly overhead, and was lighting up every few seconds.

suddenly, there was a particularly bright flash which felt very close and when it had gone, a ball of light was hovering in my neighbours garden about a foot above the ground. It was white/blueish in colour, about the size of a football and swayed side to side in a very smooth and natural motion. The underside of it looked like it was ‘dripping’ molten light. It made no sound and probably stayed there for about 20 seconds before it quickly shrunk and disappeared. 

Wow... That sounds incredibly interesting, and a unique Thunderstorm experience, to say the least!

[Arnie Pie]

2 hours ago, StormChaseUK said:

I will find the archive charts, the 2014 July storms, formed over Hereford/Brecon location then drifted up over the Welsh Marches to Shrewsbury/Telford. 

Would that be the 19 July 2014...which from memory could well be

 

[Thunder and Lightning]

Pivotal weather sounding suggesting PDS Tornadoes for Thursday in areas North West of London??!!!!! Hope this isn't an anomaly

[Thunder and Lightning]

Waiting for 12z GFS run

[Met4Cast]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

It looks like the Met Office feel as the overall thunderstorm risk has reduced and therefore the warning has been restricted to parts of North Wales and Northern England on Sunday night. This ties in with the UKV model.

I think the first lot of warnings were ridiculous anyway. They were basically generic countrywide warnings until models firmed up/confidence rose where they could be more precise. Thundery weather never looked that likely in the South during the day on Sunday, Met Office have taken an odd route with the warnings lately IMO

[Met4Cast]

Here's my take. 

Black circle - Most likely to see scattered storms during Sunday afternoon. Little risk if any elsewhere

Sunday evening/night/into the early hours of Monday, the rest of the risk areas come into effect, storms moving in from the SW north-eastwards into Wales, Western Midlands, NW England and later NE England

[AnvilCrawlers]

22 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Here's my take. 

Black circle - Most likely to see scattered storms during Sunday afternoon. Little risk if any elsewhere

Sunday evening/night/into the early hours of Monday, the rest of the risk areas come into effect, storms moving in from the SW north-eastwards into Wales, Western Midlands, NW England and later NE England

Was meant to be going to a concert sunday night,willing to cancel if storms look promising.coventry/rugby area

Edited June 22, 2019 by Ndc Ozzie

[Chris.R]

Well it’s already approaching 24°C now here and it’s not even started. WRF underestimating temperature by some 3°C. Come on, I don’t live in the sea!

Won’t be able to sleep this week even when I’m trying to it’s going to be so hot at night. 

 WRF still not really interested yet imby for Sunday night on 6Z although a little bit better. Hopefully will catch up on 12Z. 

Edited June 22, 2019 by Chris.R

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, Azazel said:

I’ve seen ball lighting.

it was late at night, I have a feeling it may have been 2002-2003.

i had college in the morning but was woken up by my room lighting up and the grumbling sound of thunder.

it was about 2am I think. I decided to get up and have a cheeky cigarette out of my bedroom window (parents didn’t know I smoked) and watch the light show for a bit.

the storm was a little way off to the east, so not directly overhead, and was lighting up every few seconds.

suddenly, there was a particularly bright flash which felt very close and when it had gone, a ball of light was hovering in my neighbours garden about a foot above the ground. It was white/blueish in colour, about the size of a football and swayed side to side in a very smooth and natural motion. The underside of it looked like it was ‘dripping’ molten light. It made no sound and probably stayed there for about 20 seconds before it quickly shrunk and disappeared. 

My neighbor had ball lightning going round their living room after the the house had a indirect strike. Blew the electrics and knackered the burglar alarm.

Apparently my mother had sparks fly across her glasses and the Davis weather station recorded a max temperature of 1000c degrees plus at the same time.

 

[Barbmac]

2 hours ago, Azazel said:

I’ve seen ball lighting.

it was late at night, I have a feeling it may have been 2002-2003.

i had college in the morning but was woken up by my room lighting up and the grumbling sound of thunder.

it was about 2am I think. I decided to get up and have a cheeky cigarette out of my bedroom window (parents didn’t know I smoked) and watch the light show for a bit.

the storm was a little way off to the east, so not directly overhead, and was lighting up every few seconds.

suddenly, there was a particularly bright flash which felt very close and when it had gone, a ball of light was hovering in my neighbours garden about a foot above the ground. It was white/blueish in colour, about the size of a football and swayed side to side in a very smooth and natural motion. The underside of it looked like it was ‘dripping’ molten light. It made no sound and probably stayed there for about 20 seconds before it quickly shrunk and disappeared. 

I've seen ball lightning too, a very long time ago, when I was a mid teen living in Australia. It was probably around 10 - 11 p.m. in summer time as it was dark, I'd gotten into bed and the lights were all out, when I became aware it was becoming light outside my window. Curious as to what it was, I got up and peered out. I saw a pale pink, brightly glowing ball of light which was appeared to be floating downwards and diagonally from my viewpoint. It was in my neighbour's paddock (we lived rurally). It really lit up the area, and then it vanished or disappeared behind something, perhaps, as there was a fence and stables. I hadn't heard of ball lightning back then so had no idea what the strange light was! It's only years later that I believe it was ball lightning. Where I lived (outside Melbourne) we often had severe storms in summer time, but there was no thunder and lightning at the time (however as it was dark, could have been a storm brewing in the vicinity). I expect I recorded it in my diary at the time, I still have them up in our loft, I should search for it! 

[10 Days Away]

Three of us saw ball lightning at Dymchurch 4 years ago while watching an MCS coming in from France. 

"Did you see what I saw?" 

"Yep!"

Love being in Kent in the summer

Edited June 22, 2019 by TN26

[Harry]

Latest BBC long range forecast not too pleasing (although Sun - Tues seeming to play out as currently expected). Drawing right back on the temperatures (despite oddly opening with a big 31 symbol). Seems as if their latest models have the plume breaking down through a High pressure cutting it off rather than the Low...their latest modelling has the Low slipping further west and northwards west of Ireland rather than engaging with the plume. 

Lets hope that’s an outlier 

Edited June 22, 2019 by Harry

[Zak M]

Looks like the storm risk for the next week or so here is quite low now.

[January Snowstorm]

The 12z gfs is perfection for Southern Ireland as storms move up from the bay of biscay Wednesday evening!!

[stevofunnelcl]

maybe i'm missing something, but i remember classic Spanish plumes of the past. You first see all the storms breaking out down in Spain.

Then, Bay of Biscay and western France, and they move north. Well, right now, not even a peep of one lightning strike in any of those areas

I guess, we are focused on brewing stuff of our own

[sunnijim]

30 minutes ago, Harry said:

Latest BBC long range forecast not too pleasing (although Sun - Tues seeming to play out as currently expected). Drawing right back on the temperatures (despite oddly opening with a big 31 symbol). Seems as if their latest models have the plume breaking down through a High pressure cutting it off rather than the Low...their latest modelling has the Low slipping further west and northwards west of Ireland rather than engaging with the plume. 

Lets hope that’s an outlier 

They only have the publicly available charts that Meteogroup supply them with.

ITV and Channel 4 still use the Met Office.

Follow the Met office on social media for an idea of how the real professionals see this panning out.

[Thunder and Lightning]

Really annoyed that 12z isn't showing such a large severe outbreak across south-east on Thursday. I really feel like this event is just becoming more normal as the days go on.