Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[cheese]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I remember that event. Missed me completely. Storms took a sharp right turn into the Midlands and eastwards before they got as far N as here.

Was gutted.

Gutted is an understatement. I was in the middle of NW’s severe warning. Didn’t get a drop of rain. 

7 years later and I’m still bitter.

Edited June 20, 2019 by cheese

[Mapantz]

Was bored, wanted to post something amusing:

[Stormhog]

26 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Was bored, wanted to post something amusing:

You beat me to it  Was about to post this. I know it's early days and all, but I've never seen a chart like it.

[Another Kent clipper]

31 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Was bored, wanted to post something amusing:

I'm working mon-sat next week till late. This means these graphics are as real as.. something real.  I'm not selfish but drizzle please!

Edited June 20, 2019 by Another Kent clipper

[Norfolk Sheep]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

Oh yes this night was absolutely immense! And it kick started 4 days of back to back intense thunderstorms for me!

I’ve attached the vid from the 27th only as I can’t squeeze the other ones on sadly (apologies for the angle!!)

33F0F914-51BC-41E1-9B8C-2867739BE798.MOV

Yet another event which was notable for its absence in eastern regions. Things have certainly changed over the past 20yrs.......

[Norfolk Sheep]

15 minutes ago, Stormhog said:

You beat me to it  Was about to post this. I know it's early days and all, but I've never seen a chart like it.

OMG, I scrape -3. My cup hath runneth over.......(but we all know it's not size that matters )

[Chris.R]

 And it’s all still there on the 00Z. I’m speechless looking at some of these parameters. The longevity is amazing as well. 

[Mike Poole]

GFS at T162:

Bonkers!

[Harry]

I noticed on the charts the other day LIs of -14 and -15 over France and remarked to a colleague that I’ve never seen that before (I think -11 or -12 was the highest I’d seen). I’ve certainly never seen it over the UK even in fantasy land charts!! 

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

9 minutes ago, Harry said:

I noticed on the charts the other day LIs of -14 and -15 over France and remarked to a colleague that I’ve never seen that before (I think -11 or -12 was the highest I’d seen). I’ve certainly never seen it over the UK even in fantasy land charts!! 

 

Surely with lift like that people are going to have to anchor themselves to the ground?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I know it's early days.. But the south east thus far escapes worst of the stroms if any at all Sunday Monday and Tuesday.. If its clear skies.. Then we are seriously going to bake! 

[Zak M]

CAPE values for Saturday next week are really high as well.

[Eskimo]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS at T162:

Bonkers!

I'll be honest, I've seen these 'black hole' CAPE charts modelled before. Exciting to look at, however they do moderate significantly within the 96h timeframe. 

[matty40s]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS at T162:

Bonkers!

It's the whale in the middle I am worried about, I'm based under the fin!!

[stripeyfox]

1 minute ago, matty40s said:

It's the whale in the middle I am worried about, I'm based under the fin!!

holy crap - don't let Nathan Rao from the Express see that.!

"Britain to be DESTROYED by GIANT WHALE attack. Next week will bring UNPRECEDENTED TORRENTIAL RAIN and KILLER WHALES falling from the SKY."

 

 

[matty40s]

15 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Hinckley Hail!

 

A friend of mine was steering a canal boat on the Ashby that day, hid under the A5 road bridge by the Lime Kilns pub as the hail storm passed. 

At one point, he didnt realise he was slowly drifting backwards until his tiller hand got cut as he left protection, soon moved forward again!!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

It’s a lot of images sorry - but I am really excited and admittedly quite unnerved by the potential for the coming week. I don’t think we’ve had this much sustained storm potential for a long, long time - if ever since I’ve been interested in severe weather.

It really is something else entirely

 

[stripeyfox]

3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It’s a lot of images sorry - but I am really excited and admittedly quite unnerved by the potential for the coming week. I don’t think we’ve had this much sustained storm potential for a long, long time - if ever since I’ve been interested in severe weather.

It really is something else entirely

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To a layperson like myself, what are we looking at here? (I removed some of the images to avoid quoting them all again). Is it thunderstorm potential? How does it work?

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, stripeyfox said:

To a layperson like myself, what are we looking at here? (I removed some of the images to avoid quoting them all again). Is it thunderstorm potential? How does it work?

 

It’s CAPE I think, but they’ve possibly overlaid the lift and calculated a probablility of storms occurring.

The caveat is whether the initiation is there to tap into it, and obvs there’s the potential for it to get downgraded nearer the time - but we’re talking days away now.

At least three half-decent to amazing events in the south from this I reckon - notwithstanding the excellent potential for northern areas

[Dami]

Phone going mad with MetO updates. 3 in the last minute. 

Still not going to get excited.

[Robbie Garrett]

Doesn't look like anything like a multi-cell that we crave but more rather isolated imports.  

Issued: 11:02 (UTC+1) on Fri 21 Jun 2019

Thunderstorms are expected across parts of England and Wales at times on Tuesday. Storms are likely to spread north from France early in the day, before developing more widely later. Whilst some places may miss storms altogether, where they do develop 20-30 mm of rain could fall in one hour, with a few spots perhaps seeing as much as 40-60 mm in one hour, which is very unusual for the UK. Large hail, lightning and gusty winds are also likely.

[stevofunnelcl]

the 'very unusual for the Uk' comment is interesting, i notice all three days of yellow warnings, the tick is down bottom, so a lot of places probably escaping the worst, but plenty of time for the warnings to change, or get upgraded... or downgraded (but i think some kind of warm-up will happen by now)

[Eskimo]

16 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Doesn't look like anything like a multi-cell that we crave but more rather isolated imports.  

Issued: 11:02 (UTC+1) on Fri 21 Jun 2019

Thunderstorms are expected across parts of England and Wales at times on Tuesday. Storms are likely to spread north from France early in the day, before developing more widely later. Whilst some places may miss storms altogether, where they do develop 20-30 mm of rain could fall in one hour, with a few spots perhaps seeing as much as 40-60 mm in one hour, which is very unusual for the UK. Large hail, lightning and gusty winds are also likely.

I don't know, sounds pretty ominous to me. 

Edited June 21, 2019 by PerfectStorm

[Robbie Garrett]

2 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

the 'very unusual for the Uk' comment is interesting, i notice all three days of yellow warnings, the tick is down bottom, so a lot of places probably escaping the worst, but plenty of time for the warnings to change, or get upgraded... or downgraded (but i think some kind of warm-up will happen by now)

I presume it's the intensity of said storms.  It's very rare to get FL300/FL350 tops here in the UK.  The tropopause sits normally at FL280-FL330

It's maybe something to do with the fact that it's either unusually high or the storms are busting through it.   I've known of a cell that once blocked a BA Nairobi-London flight from coming in via Southampton, but instead had to route via Dover in via Lambourne (Epping forrest) due to the shear size.  Something like FL580/FL600.  60,000ft tops.

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

18 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Doesn't look like anything like a multi-cell that we crave but more rather isolated imports.  

Issued: 11:02 (UTC+1) on Fri 21 Jun 2019

Thunderstorms are expected across parts of England and Wales at times on Tuesday. Storms are likely to spread north from France early in the day, before developing more widely later. Whilst some places may miss storms altogether, where they do develop 20-30 mm of rain could fall in one hour, with a few spots perhaps seeing as much as 40-60 mm in one hour, which is very unusual for the UK. Large hail, lightning and gusty winds are also likely.

Well last tuesday the usually fairly faultless Estofex barely gave a 50% minimal contour for some of the areas of Kent which saw pretty severe weather. In reality with hindsight I think at least a 1 would have been appropriate.

At this far out a lot of the storm forecasts will be broad-brush and erring on caution. Wait until 24 hours out and I’m pretty sure certain areas will be upgraded significantly.