Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Tom Jarvis]

if the set up is like an USA sort of storm set up anyone in Sussex going to chase? If they are would they want an spotter and map person to join them would be willing to split cost of fuel. 

[Summer Sun]

Ahead of the potential main even next week the met office have a thunderstorm warning out for Sunday afternoon and all of Monday

15:00 Sun 23 to 23:59 Mon 24

Thunderstorms may develop bringing torrential rain and lightning, with possible flooding and disruption to travel.

What to expect

• There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds
• There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost
• Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures

Spells of rain are expected to affect many areas at times from Sunday afternoon and into Monday, moving north-northeastward and perhaps turning thundery at times in some places. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms may also develop between bands of rain, particularly on Monday afternoon. Where thunderstorms do develop, 20 to 30 mm rain may fall locally in an hour, and close to 40 mm of rain may fall in two or three hours.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-23&id=747b8a63-0bcf-45b7-a2f2-ca667f339f58&details

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

From Tuesday night (looking toward Firle)

Edited June 20, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[A.J]

It will be interesting how this all evolves......current modelling infers a set up similar to June 2012 (subject to change though)

[Harry]

OMG - the Oracle has changed in a MASSIVE way for next week! Look at those temperatures - big increase on just last night 

[SalopWatcher]

13 minutes ago, A.J said:

It will be interesting how this all evolves......current modelling infers a set up similar to June 2012 (subject to change though)

The day a storm out  in the East Midlands caused the Olympic Torch relay to be paused (28th June) 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-england-nottinghamshire-18629401/olympic-torch-relay-halted-by-lightning-in-mansfield

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

4 hours ago, TomW said:

The main reason I didn’t bother chasing Tuesday night but would have been a good view over the Brighton coast!

Please don't remind me, I got to the Brighton Coast half an hour too late

[oliverek7]

46 minutes ago, Harry said:

OMG - the Oracle has changed in a MASSIVE way for next week! Look at those temperatures - big increase on just last night 

Look how quickly those temperatures fall away though! Massive storms incoming

[Storm mad]

Hi all hope everyone is well and not storm starved... Can anyone explain how sunday/Mondays event will differ from Tuesday night action... If at all... Thanks

 

 

[Hodgheg]

I'm actually getting a little concerned for Tuesday evening now. As I said before i'm flying back from Toulouse into Heathrow. While ideally I would get a nice view of storms from the air there would no doubt there would be delays and cancellations. 

[Spikecollie]

9 minutes ago, John90 said:

I'm actually getting a little concerned for Tuesday evening now. As I said before i'm flying back from Toulouse into Heathrow. While ideally I would get a nice view of storms from the air there would no doubt there would be delays and cancellations. 

Nothing significant progged for Toulouse next week other than scorching heat although that can change quickly and locally.

http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-france/toulouse/31000

Whatever happens you'll be well looked after and any delay/cancellation is for your safety. As they say - sit back, relax and enjoy your short flight...

[Supacell]

8 minutes ago, Storm mad said:

Hi all hope everyone is well and not storm starved... Can anyone explain how sunday/Mondays event will differ from Tuesday night action... If at all... Thanks

 

 

Tuesday nights action was all elevated within an elevated plume off the continent and was moving in a SW to NE direction, clipping only the south east of the UK. Sunday nights storms may be similar in that they would be elevated but may affect more of us with a more S to N movement. With increasing heat and humidity from Monday day time onwards, any storms that develop by day are likely to be surface based with CAPE right down to the surface as opposed to being only elevated. We are likely to get home grown storms in addition to those moving up from France.

A surface based storm brings a higher risk of severe weather than elevated (although elevated storms can still bring severe weather). It is unlikely that the CAPE being shown on GFS/NMM will be released to that extent, but even half of that CAPE with the jet stream overhead would be able to produce severe thunderstorms that are not often seen in the UK. Think 28th June 2012.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Tom Jarvis said:

if the set up is like an USA sort of storm set up anyone in Sussex going to chase? If they are would they want an spotter and map person to join them would be willing to split cost of fuel. 

I can let you know nearer the time?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Back to today - interesting skies

 

[Wilxy]

47 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Please don't remind me, I got to the Brighton Coast half an hour too late

Hopefully won't be to long before we see some more storms!

[A.J]

11 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Tuesday nights action was all elevated within an elevated plume off the continent and was moving in a SW to NE direction, clipping only the south east of the UK. Sunday nights storms may be similar in that they would be elevated but may affect more of us with a more S to N movement. With increasing heat and humidity from Monday day time onwards, any storms that develop by day are likely to be surface based with CAPE right down to the surface as opposed to being only elevated. We are likely to get home grown storms in addition to those moving up from France.

A surface based storm brings a higher risk of severe weather than elevated (although elevated storms can still bring severe weather). It is unlikely that the CAPE being shown on GFS/NMM will be released to that extent, but even half of that CAPE with the jet stream overhead would be able to produce severe thunderstorms that are not often seen in the UK. Think 28th June 2012.

28th june 2012 was a truly remarkable day.....the previous evening elevated thunderstorms erupted over SW England and Eire as a negatively tilted shortwave trough destabilized....early the following morning (28th) Elevated convection fired wuickly (around 7am) in the Welsh Marches which quickly became severe moving NE to affect the west midlands around mid morning (My village where Ilived at the time was subject to flash flooding)...This multicell cluster maintained strength to pass through Yorks and exited the NE coast early afternoon.....Meanwhile in the clearence behind, elevated storms firing further south (midlands) quickly rooted into the boundary layer became surface based, severe and then supercellular giving fist sized hail and several tornadoes through Leicestershire and Lincolnshire. This spectacular weather was realised with about 2000j/kg of both SB & MLCAPE to tap into, something more akin to tornadic outbreaks in the mid-west....Meanwhile in the SE of England, with plenty of SBCAPE in place but a strong inversion in place, it remained dry IIRC

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

More video footage from Tuesday night, this is as it made landfall beween Eastbourne and Brighton and apparently split. Storm became pretty ferocious at that point - the flickering lightning seems to be a things reserved for supercellular storms, I rarely see this sort of lightning in the UK. Anyone know anything about why this happens?

[stripeyfox]

1 hour ago, SalopWatcher said:

The day a storm out  in the East Midlands caused the Olympic Torch relay to be paused (28th June) 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-england-nottinghamshire-18629401/olympic-torch-relay-halted-by-lightning-in-mansfield

 

Remember it well. Here in Leicestershire, the sky darkened so much that the street lights came on and we then had a biblical hailstorm which damaged cars, caravans etc. My son was 3 at the time and is still traumatized by it!
 

[Thunder and Lightning]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Can’t wait to see an Estofex level 2 or 3 over the UK

Only a few days to go to find out....

Yep! Level 3 might be stretch though. Also I feel a bit depressed because I don't feel like London will get any severe thunderstorms. Help Me!

[Thunder and Lightning]

Anyone thinking we could get worse than Thunder Thursday? Its a thought in the back of my mind but i just know it will be across western Britain. Everyone says the South - East is the best for thunderstorms but they always happen elsewhere or weaken by the time they get to me!   

[Harry]

17 minutes ago, A.J said:

28th june 2012 was a truly remarkable day.....the previous evening elevated thunderstorms erupted over SW England and Eire as a negatively tilted shortwave trough destabilized....early the following morning (28th) Elevated convection fired wuickly (around 7am) in the Welsh Marches which quickly became severe moving NE to affect the west midlands around mid morning (My village where Ilived at the time was subject to flash flooding)...This multicell cluster maintained strength to pass through Yorks and exited the NE coast early afternoon.....Meanwhile in the clearence behind, elevated storms firing further south (midlands) quickly rooted into the boundary layer became surface based, severe and then supercellular giving fist sized hail and several tornadoes through Leicestershire and Lincolnshire. This spectacular weather was realised with about 2000j/kg of both SB & MLCAPE to tap into, something more akin to tornadic outbreaks in the mid-west....Meanwhile in the SE of England, with plenty of SBCAPE in place but a strong inversion in place, it remained dry IIRC

You are very right in your recollections @A.J - I remember that day vividly. The storms fired early on across the Welsh borders, quickly moving NE all the while, followed by a fresh batch of severe storms later. Meanwhile, here in the SE, it stayed clear, hot (33C) and humid all day and then a sultry night. 

Edited June 20, 2019 by Harry

[ChezWeather]

Here's a good couple of sites with info on June 28th 2012 for anyone interested, to me this day is THE benchmark for UK storms.

https://www.stratusdeck.co.uk/28th-june-2012

https://hinckleyweatherblog.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/leicestershire-supercell-storms-of-28th-june-2012/

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Here's a good couple of sites with info on June 28th 2012 for anyone interested, to me this day is THE benchmark for UK storms.

https://www.stratusdeck.co.uk/28th-june-2012

https://hinckleyweatherblog.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/leicestershire-supercell-storms-of-28th-june-2012/

Thanks! The 2nd link down has a brilliant write-up and video links.

[Chris.R]

Sunday in to Monday looks really really interesting, and that’s before the rest of the week. 

[Storm mad]

1 hour ago, Supacell said:

Tuesday nights action was all elevated within an elevated plume off the continent and was moving in a SW to NE direction, clipping only the south east of the UK. Sunday nights storms may be similar in that they would be elevated but may affect more of us with a more S to N movement. With increasing heat and humidity from Monday day time onwards, any storms that develop by day are likely to be surface based with CAPE right down to the surface as opposed to being only elevated. We are likely to get home grown storms in addition to those moving up from France.

A surface based storm brings a higher risk of severe weather than elevated (although elevated storms can still bring severe weather). It is unlikely that the CAPE being shown on GFS/NMM will be released to that extent, but even half of that CAPE with the jet stream overhead would be able to produce severe thunderstorms that are not often seen in the UK. Think 28th June 2012.

OK thanks for the explanation sounds like it could be memorable.