Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Mapantz]

9 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Here's something you don't see every day...

Right in @A.J's back garden! 

[Dorsetbred]

6 hours ago, ChezWeather said:

Here's something you don't see every day...

Well at least the cars wont get damaged from hail, according to that forecast!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

8 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Burst mode on phones is a very handy feature to have. I have captured a few good ones in the past. 

Took this on an LG G5 back in 2016:

Also on mobiles, particularly at night, I like to take 4K 60FPS video, then extract a high quality image if there's any successful lightning.

Wow - love that photo!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

8 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

 

 

Anybody want to buy an SLR

SLRs wipe the floor with phone cameras for cloud and daytime photography - the light really plays havoc with the contrast in any pics I try and take from the iPhone and usually waters out any of the lighter areas of the image.

HDR kind of compensates but it slows down the burst time and I personally feel like it’s returning a dishonest picture - because it layers two photos together. I guess you could argue long exposure does the same thing...

[Harry]

GFS and ECMWF fairly well aligned this morning. Recent GFS runs wavering somewhat on extent and duration of plume. 

 

[Dami]

Ever so surprised that my phone has beeped to tell me yet another thunderstorm warning has been issued- be it for most of the country for Sunday/Monday.  Very Surprised. 

 

[Polar Maritime]

13 minutes ago, Dami said:

Ever so surprised that my phone has beeped to tell me yet another thunderstorm warning has been issued- be it for most of the country for Sunday/Monday.  Very Surprised. 

 

Scope certainly there Dami, Being the start of something that could escalate with severe thunderstorms into Tue/Wed.

Cape charts for Tue/Wed.

Edited June 20, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[TJS1998Tom]

13 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Scope certainly there Dami, Being the start of something that could escalate with severe thunderstorms into Tue/Wed.

Cape charts for Tue/Wed.

Ooo yes please that high Cape is right over us if this verifies 

[Dami]

Wow really. Lovely charts. I certainly do hope these do verify. The reason I was surprised was because nothing was being hinted at- apart from potential heat. So im a happy bunny.  (even if at the range it is showing light rain for me then)

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Amazing how quickly we go from a situation with nothing of note on the horizon to this - in the space of a fortnight!

Curious to see that the moment the models stopped giving signals of something in FI it begins to get interesting in the reliable. Maybe it’s just happenstance  

Trying to get Tues, Weds and Thurs off. Have family in the midlands, mum lives near Blackpool and my Dad lives in the south-west - so chasing is definately an option!

Hoping everyone gets a bite of the pie this time

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Looking so far like:

• Monday EA and London area

• Tuesday risk moves up north to the west

• Weds clearer day but risk later on in the midlands across to South Wales and into south western areas

@tomdewey Looking good for warminister in Wiltshire next week - keep an eye on developments - next week might just be your week!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

More chances follow on Thursday and possibly late into the evening, too.

... but will it all be downgraded to nothing?  

[Azazel]

11 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Looking so far like:

• Monday EA and London area

• Tuesday risk moves up north to the west

• Weds clearer day but risk later on in the midlands across to South Wales and into south western areas

@tomdewey Looking good for warminister in Wiltshire next week - keep an eye on developments - next week might just be your week!

haha I know you're not making an accurate forecast, but I will be gutted if i'm from the only part of the country that sees nothing at all.

[tomp456]

I can predict the models will weaken the storm potential for the UK next week, and most of it will be reserved for the usual places, aka France, Belgium. etc 

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

I can predict the models will weaken the storm potential for the UK next week, and most of it will be reserved for the usual places, aka France, Belgium. etc 

Did a good job with the storms a couple of days ago!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

17 minutes ago, Azazel said:

haha I know you're not making an accurate forecast, but I will be gutted if i'm from the only part of the country that sees nothing at all.

I think out of everyone here Tom deserves his Warminister humdinger most

In all honesty Ventusky seems to colour in practically everywhere except maybe the very western tip of wales and Scotland next week so you can rest easy

Edited June 20, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Azazel]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I think out of everyone here Tom deserves his Warminister humdinger most

In all honesty Ventusky seems to colour in practically everywhere except maybe the very western tip of wales and Scotland next week so you can rest easy

Good:)

My ideal scenario would be for beastly homegrowns to fire off to the SW of here and travel NE reaching maturity as they pass me. The best storms I've seen down here (structurally) have all been like that. Imports from France are great and all, especially for after-dark lightshows, but they're elevated with no defined structure and I want me a saucer shaped mothership with ground hanging gust-front please.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Great viewing spots all over the CS and south-west - with a lot of unobstructed views.

Shame we don’t get storms there more regularly - there’s too many hedgerows in Kent

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

34 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

I can predict the models will weaken the storm potential for the UK next week, and most of it will be reserved for the usual places, aka France, Belgium. etc 

I’m thinking otherwise with this one. The 500hpa winds are directly from the South, which will steer French thundery lows right over us. 

A lot more chance of being in the game when storm motion from France heads directly N, without westerly elements 

[Wilxy]

15 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Great viewing spots all over the CS and south-west - with a lot of unobstructed views.

Shame we don’t get storms there more regularly - there’s too many hedgerows in Kent

The main reason I didn’t bother chasing Tuesday night but would have been a good view over the Brighton coast!

[Mapantz]

Extended skew-t for here at 156 hours:

Possibly over the top dew points, but shows a capping inversion. One could possibly call it a 'loaded gun'?!

 

[ChezWeather]

I hope we see some 28th June 2012 style surface based monsters, with some massive hail thrown in as well.

It's been a while since we've seen really severe home grown storms 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I’m thinking otherwise with this one. The 500hpa winds are directly from the South, which will steer French thundery lows right over us. 

A lot more chance of being in the game when storm motion from France heads directly N, without westerly elements 

They get fat on energy as they cross from south (east) to north (west) France, then the channel gives them a bit more moisture and invigorate into monsters as they hit the south coast. #idealsituation

[WillinGlossop]

Heading to Krakow on train...looking forward to some storms in Poland over weekend

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Can’t wait to see an Estofex level 2 or 3 over the UK

Only a few days to go to find out....