Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[LionKingGamer]

Just now, Harry said:

40-50% I reckon. It’s about now casting at the moment and looking at what’s going on France/Channel. Models are really struggling (as usual with this kind of setup) so its down to a lot of guesswork.

Yeah it seems like the London Rain Shield is fully activated currently based on the pathways of the storms

[Dean E]

Storms developing now on the outflow of the main line to the west. These will be varied in intensity if they move too far away from the outflow.

[StormChaseUK]

Rather hooky

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

From a hill in Lewes I can see this

 

White dot in the center is the nearest cell

Edited June 18, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[TJS1998Tom]

Possible supercell in the making? Just exploded again recently

[Biggin]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

40-50% I reckon. It’s about now casting at the moment and looking at what’s going on France/Channel. Models are really struggling (as usual with this kind of setup) so its down to a lot of guesswork.

Hey Harry. Sorry mods.

[Guest]

Ping Pong hail from the storm near Caen. 

[Sun & Tanned]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The problem is nobody can say with more than a vague degree of certainty that it won’t affect your area, but I would say to your boy that where you live is probably one of the more ideal places to be as any lightning/thunder you do get will probably be very distant.

It’s an interesting one actually because I nearly wrote ‘prefers’ (as in the lightning ‘would rather not’ or ‘choose not’ to do a certain thing).

I used to be petriified of storms, and my parents would try to anthropomorphise or personify the lightning and/or thunder. They obviously thought this would make it sound in some way nicer or friendlier, I guess - but in actual fact I think it was the discovery of the science behind the phenomenon that turned my fear into an addiction (same happened with beer but the other way around - “beer is your friend...” )

Maybe getting him interested in the science behind why it’s unlikely he will see or hear anything from these storms will help his realise it’s an amazing thing, or at least that he has a friend in the Synoptics, which can give a warning as to the likelihood of a storm approaching?

The situation today is a rather messy one so I don’t think anyone can say for sure what will happen but if I was still scared of storms enough to travel away from them I’d consider Aylesbury tonight, as it could be a perfect place to watch distant lightning in the cloud-tops without being in any real danger of hearing any thunder or being near any potential ground strikes*

(*Disclaimer: bolts from the blue do happen but are extremely, extremely rare. If either of you even sees one you’ve probably also won the lottery )

 

Thank you for your help 

I agree I will get him used to the science and I appreciate your input.

[ChezWeather]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Ping Pong hail from the storm near Caen. 

Post a link if you see stuff like this (on twitter i assume) 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

@Spikecollie,storm firing west of Bordeaux now,may have your name on it.

[tomdewey]

One cell in near Brest and with a bit of lightning as saw on lighting maps 

[Norfolk Sheep]

Captured by Leiston resident Clare Middleditch earlier this evening!

[StormChaseUK]

If you want to know what the Caen cell looks like close up, this was taken an hour or so ago. 

From twitter 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Anyone at Firle?

edit: I’m not actually there but I can see it

Edited June 18, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[StormLoser]

Incoming that passed over Littlehampton looks like it's heading Reigate way. It does not seem electrically active (couple of pops). Good for the pond.

[Tom Jarvis]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Anyone at Firle?

edit: I’m not actually there but I can see it

Might be about to head out there 

[ChezWeather]

 

[Spikecollie]

6 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Post a link if you see stuff like this (on twitter i assume) 

Bloody hail! That's good if not completely unprecedented for nothern France. P.S. big P.S. I don't want any. My fruit and veg crops don't need that. I'v e got nets on but nothing will withstand that. Méteo France have been spot on with their forecasts so far though.

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Might be about to head out there 

Wondering whether to head over, can’t see the sea from here - Firle is in the way

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

 

Is that a tornado i see there!

[Mapantz]

That's a hail shaft, Si.

[tomdewey]

One cell out side of Brest in France is poking out on the met office rain full rader 

[tomp456]

 

Look at what else is on the end of worthing pier ;] 

 

 

[StormLoser]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is that a tornado i see there!

Good spot. Surely that's too big? Signs of rotation from Anvil down.

[Tom Jarvis]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Wondering whether to head over, can’t see the sea from here - Firle is in the way

Good views to the north and south from car park from the beacon