Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Swansonson69]

What's with all the Pessimistic attitude here. Talk about killing the mood. As far as I'm concerned, anyone in any risk area has the chance to see severe weather. Come on be more optimistic here. Just because that rain mess is more east then forecast, doesn't mean the storms tonight will be. 

Good luck to all of you and I hope everyone gets a storm in the risk area, including myself. 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Azazel]

I think i'm gonna set my camera up on it's tripod and leave it in the kitchen so if anything wakes me up this far west, I can run into the street in my pants and try to snap some shots.

[Harry]

This might cheer some people up! Although I am a little surprised by it as I would not have put any part of Kent (especially the EAST) as low risk. This is from Metcheck.

[BrickFielder]

 I looked out the window this morning and saw high level cloud cover and birds circling on thermals and thought if the sun breaks through then convection could initiate today. Then I looked at the modelling,Satellite images an Forecast SkewT's and thought maybe not.
 Looking at the Satellite Imagery gives a bit of a different picture to what I was Expecting. It looks like the surface low over the north of France is beginning to decay with not much convection along the trailing front across France. What is left is not much more than a trough at the triple point which has given some heavy rain across the channel islands. This I think can re invigorate a little as it crosses the south east tip of the UK during the afternoon. The wind dynamics are good enough for a moderate storm, but I rather think temperatures will mean storms will struggle to root into the boundary. You can also see the warm air convection beginning to stall across Spain on the Eumetsat real time images.
 The second low which is still of the coast of North Spain and has much better upper air dynamics is  beginning to fill. This has developed an area of MCS at the junction of the fronts out to Sea. This is forecast to lift out and cross the south east of the UK in the early hours of tomorrow morning (I think it might be a bit later looking at the Satellite imagery). We do have an elevated mixed layer across the UK and France which is making it rather humid but I think the low will have a mix of maritime air in it as it crosses the UK (EML. Still across France). So the south east might see some elevated storms over night but it is looking less certain in my view, however there is a chance of some moderately severe storms for the south east corner during the morning tomorrow depending on timing. Other southern parts of the UK may see some outflow dominant stormy rainfall  (Just wet not really electrical) as well.

  Still not convinced I understand the dynamics here and will wait and see.

[Lu.]

Lots of rain throughout the morning & currently throwing it down. Its rather warm outside too, So I am looking forward to later -

[tomdewey]

It feel warm and humid in Warminster in Wiltshire to day as it been on off rain

[Swansonson69]

Incredibly humid in east Midlands. Pretty warm as well.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Harry]

37 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

 I looked out the window this morning and saw high level cloud cover and birds circling on thermals and thought if the sun breaks through then convection could initiate today. Then I looked at the modelling,Satellite images an Forecast SkewT's and thought maybe not.
 Looking at the Satellite Imagery gives a bit of a different picture to what I was Expecting. It looks like the surface low over the north of France is beginning to decay with not much convection along the trailing front across France. What is left is not much more than a trough at the triple point which has given some heavy rain across the channel islands. This I think can re invigorate a little as it crosses the south east tip of the UK during the afternoon. The wind dynamics are good enough for a moderate storm, but I rather think temperatures will mean storms will struggle to root into the boundary. You can also see the warm air convection beginning to stall across Spain on the Eumetsat real time images.
 The second low which is still of the coast of North Spain and has much better upper air dynamics is  beginning to fill. This has developed an area of MCS at the junction of the fronts out to Sea. This is forecast to lift out and cross the south east of the UK in the early hours of tomorrow morning (I think it might be a bit later looking at the Satellite imagery). We do have an elevated mixed layer across the UK and France which is making it rather humid but I think the low will have a mix of maritime air in it as it crosses the UK (EML. Still across France). So the south east might see some elevated storms over night but it is looking less certain in my view, however there is a chance of some moderately severe storms for the south east corner during the morning tomorrow depending on timing. Other southern parts of the UK may see some outflow dominant stormy rainfall  (Just wet not really electrical) as well.

  Still not convinced I understand the dynamics here and will wait and see.

Way to burst my bubble after the exciting 6z model developments Brickfielder but thanks for your realism. I think it’s always been a bit of a  will it - won’t it scenario so will just have to keep my expectations firmly in check.

[stripeyfox]

Current observations (Melton Mowbray, Leics)

 

19.1°C 

67% humidity

 

[Zak M]

Light rain here but it is very humid. Will not be surprised if Bedfordshire gets a storm.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

Incredibly humid in east Midlands. Pretty warm as well.

Its really not, temp is 17C with a 10/11C DP.......

Sun has broken through in Kent and 21/16C there so slightly juicy and should be enough for SB storms.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Alderc

[Spikecollie]

Don't give up guys! Météo France have just produced their 16h30 forecast and they're still going for some pretty big storms for northern France, which at least folks on the coast should be able to watch, even if they don't import.

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Its really not, temp is 17C with a 10/11C DP.......

Yep  slightly warmer here   but  nothing to want me to  take my pullover off. 

Edited June 18, 2019 by weirpig

[Zak M]

Forgot to say that I had a dream last night about the thunderstorms that could happen tonight and that one happened at 5am when the sun was coming up with a strike every 20 seconds. Will be very surprised if I see something like this tonight.

[Spikecollie]

Just now, weirpig said:

Yep  slightly warmer here   but  nothing to want me take my pullover off. 

But the temperature differential is amazing - it's 30c+ in northern France,some of those progged storms have got to get to the UK...

[StormChaseUK]

 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

But the temperature differential is amazing - it's 30c+ in northern France,some of those progged storms have got to get to the UK...

Oh yes Spike  im sure some down South will see a nice show.    here at the moment its  17.9c  and Dp of  13.3    

Edited June 18, 2019 by weirpig

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please stop the off topic posts about the Moderation. Don't air them in here otherwise they will go missing and that is why they are disappearing.

Please PM the team if you have any issues. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Good luck to you guys towards the South-East. May tonight and tomorrow produce a special stormy surprise for you! ⛈️

[Swansonson69]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

This might cheer some people up! Although I am a little surprised by it as I would not have put any part of Kent (especially the EAST) as low risk. This is from Metcheck.

That's because on there the main risk is shifted west thus excluding Kent and some of the east from it. 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Swansonson69

[LionKingGamer]

Im in the red zone of the MetCheck warning area however the thunderstorms could pop up anywhere so i guess you have to be lucky to catch a big one

[Purplepixii]

So watching the current NW radar (and Sat24) - where are the cells that we're expecting to drift north to the UK at the moment? It's raining & muggy down here on the Hampshire coast but it doesn't feel like anything's gonna happen (please prove me wrong weather gods!)

[tomdewey]

South and West England Today:
Rain will quickly spread northwards from the south coast during the morning, including some heavy bursts, most likely in Dorset and Wiltshire. The rain will clear for at time in the afternoon but it will stay rather cloudy. Maximum temperature 17 °C.

Tonight:
Rain and showers will develop overnight across much of the region. The heaviest showers are likely in Dorset and Wiltshire, and here, thunder, hail and localised flooding are possible. Minimum temperature 12 °C.

Wednesday:
Early rain, perhaps still heavy during rush hour, will gradually clear eastwards during the day, to leave warm sunshine, particularly across Devon and Cornwall, where a breeze will develop. Maximum temperature 19 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:
It will be breezy and less warm on Thursday with sunshine and a few showers. Friday and Saturday will probably be dry with light winds and spells of warm sunshine.

[Mapantz]

Just now, Purplepixii said:

So watching the current NW radar (and Sat24) - where are the cells that we're expecting to drift north to the UK at the moment? 

Far too early yet. We're looking at tonight and in to the early hours.

[tomdewey]

Met office rain full rader latest