Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Zak M]

Well, today could be the day...

[Guest]

And they’ve died.......

[stainesbloke]

Looks fairly promising for ‘something’ to happen today, especially in SE Britain. Fingers crossed for much more than the usual boring Kent Clipper!

[Stormhog]

11 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Come on, SUSSEX! first real storm potential of the year today! Could get quite the channel light show later! Good job it came AFTER my exams, eh?

I'll be at Pevensey Bay tonight, hopefully the first decent catch since May last year.

[Stormhog]

First of the rain headed in. Still some sporadic lightning.

[Guest]

Initial warm front English Channel further east than earlier ancipations. This will likely have the effect of shifting the whole system further east later today and overnight. Probably a Brighton eastwards only event, Estofex not interested at all in any notable activity over the UK for the forecast period. Standard let down....

Still some new cells a popping on approach to the south east coast, as usual a big wet mass of decaying rain now heading for Dorset.

[Paul]

Updated Storm Forecast from @Nick F

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

[Bolt from the Blue]

We need the sun to come out here and warm up the ground. 8/8 and cool here and I can’t see that changing looking at the sat image. 

[tomdewey]

South and west has got yellow for thunderstorms 

[tomdewey]

Met office 

UK weather warnings

Tue

Yellow weather warning

Wed

Yellow weather warning

 

yellow

Yellow warning

Thunderstorm

18:00

Today

UTC+1

21:00

Tomorrow

© OpenMapTiles | © OpenStreetMap contributors

See all UK weather warnings 

Thunderstorms may develop bringing torrential rain, hail and lightning to a few places, with potential disruption to travel and flooding.

What to expect

There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds

Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services

Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures

There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost

What should I do?

Stay safe in thunder and lightning

Travelling in storms, rain and heavy wind

Further details

Issued: 10:58 (UTC+1) on Sun 16 Jun 2019

Through Tuesday evening there is potential for thunderstorms to break out, initially across parts of southern England, before developing more widely overnight and then clearing through Wednesday morning. The thunderstorms may merge into areas of more prolonged and widespread rain for a time on Tuesday night and at first on Wednesday. Widely 15-30 mm of rain may fall, with up to 50 mm in a few locations. After a drier interlude, further thunderstorms may develop in a few places during Wednesday afternoon, mainly southeastern parts of England. Whilst rain and flooding is likely to be the largest impact, hail, lightning and gusty winds will be additional hazards.

Warning impact matrix

Very
likely

Unlikely

Very low
impactHigh
impact

Impact matrix guide

Regions and local authorities affected:

East Midlands

Derby

Derbyshire

Leicester

Leicestershire

Lincolnshire

Northamptonshire

Nottingham

Nottinghamshire

Rutland

East of England

Bedford

Cambridgeshire

Central Bedfordshire

Essex

Hertfordshire

Luton

Norfolk

Peterborough

Southend-on-Sea

Suffolk

Thurrock

London & South East England

Bracknell Forest

Brighton and Hove

Buckinghamshire

East Sussex

Greater London

Hampshire

Isle of Wight

Kent

Medway

Milton Keynes

Oxfordshire

Portsmouth

Reading

Slough

Southampton

Surrey

West Berkshire

West Sussex

Windsor and Maidenhead

Wokingham

South West England

Bath and North East Somerset

Bournemouth

Dorset

Gloucestershire

Poole

Somerset

South Gloucestershire

Swindon

Wiltshire

West Midlands

Staffordshire

Warwickshire

West Midlands Conurbation

Worcestershire

Yorkshire & Humber

East Riding of Yorkshire

Kingston upon Hull

North East Lincolnshire

North Lincolnshire

South Yorkshire

[A.J]

42 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Initial warm front English Channel further east than earlier ancipations. This will likely have the effect of shifting the whole system further east later today and overnight. Probably a Brighton eastwards only event, Estofex not interested at all in any notable activity over the UK for the forecast period. Standard let down....

Still some new cells a popping on approach to the south east coast, as usual a big wet mass of decaying rain now heading for Dorset.

Do you ever post anything positive?....or is it some kind of insane reverse psychology?....lol

some elevated convection breaking out over Devon, South Somerset & Dorset, worth keeping an eye on

 

[Azazel]

Arome showing the bulk of activity well to my east - however, this might not be the worst thing. Sometimes it's better to not be underneath the storms as night falls - if I can find somewhere with a good view to the east, I should be able to see a good light show (IF anything happens).

[tomdewey]

Met office has issues a yellow warning for thunderstorms wiltshire and Swindon and Somerset and Gloucestershire and North East Somerset Bath and Poole 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Saw a lightning flash in my peripheral vision about 20 mins ago. It was the inland strike just east of Brighton - must have been just under it

[Andy Pepler]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Saw a lightning flash in my peripheral vision about 20 mins ago. It was the inland strike just east of Brighton - must have been just under it

few strikes off the coast from you .could of been one of them ':)

[A.J]

5 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Arome showing the bulk of activity well to my east - however, this might not be the worst thing. Sometimes it's better to not be underneath the storms as night falls - if I can find somewhere with a good view to the east, I should be able to see a good light show (IF anything happens).

Likewise, I'm south of Swindon, so hopefully might see a distant light show to my east tonight.....Sometimes a distant light show can be just as good as an overhead storm IMO

[Azazel]

Just now, A.J said:

Likewise, I'm south of Swindon, so hopefully might see a distant light show to my east tonight.....Sometimes a distant light show can be just as good as an overhead storm IMO

For sure. The Bournemouth "supercell" of 2014 (or was it 15?) skirted just past here and I was under the anvil at the edge. Didn't have to worry about getting soaked and was less worried about getting struck by lightning(though it can still happen of course) - It was an amazing view for the duration.

[tomdewey]

2 minutes ago, A.J said:

Likewise, I'm south of Swindon, so hopefully might see a distant light show to my east tonight.....Sometimes a distant light show can be just as good as an overhead storm IMO

Swindon is In the yellow warning for thunderstorms 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, Andy Pepler said:

few strikes off the coast from you .could of been one of them ':)

It was the one near Lewes, i’d Taken a detour to get some photos of the skies and over the rain hitting the van roof I’m sure I heard the rumble

[tomdewey]

Warminster in Wiltshire  weather forecast picture has a yellow warning for thunderstorms 

Edited June 18, 2019 by tomdewey

[Andy Pepler]

6 minutes ago, A.J said:

Likewise, I'm south of Swindon, so hopefully might see a distant light show to my east tonight.....Sometimes a distant light show can be just as good as an overhead storm IMO

gettt offf myyy land ..hello AJ  

 

[Luke Best]

5 minutes ago, Azazel said:

For sure. The Bournemouth "supercell" of 2014 (or was it 15?) skirted just past here and I was under the anvil at the edge. Didn't have to worry about getting soaked and was less worried about getting struck by lightning(though it can still happen of course) - It was an amazing view for the duration.

Friday 3rd July 2015 - will never forget it! 

[tomdewey]

Met office rain full rader 

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, tomdewey said:

Swindon is In the yellow warning for thunderstorms 

yes it is, but in view of what I read over on UKWW this morning, it seems that east of this region (London, Kent, Sussex, Essex etc) are in a prime spot.....The steering flow has too much of an easterly component to keep Wilts in play....That's not to rule out of rogue storm though

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, Andy Pepler said:

gettt offf myyy land ..hello AJ  

 

Morning Andy, long time no speak......after a throughly miserable start to summer, it's nice to be able to get into a 'elevated plume storm' mindset again'