Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Well said that man...in these kinds of scenarios storms can literally appear in a rash within 10-15 minutes...I know one thing it’s that my windows will be wide open tomorrow night although I remain sceptical about how widespread storms may be as models in my view seem sparing with the MUCAPE distribution.

Like the 2014 storms that happened on the 17th of July - could feintly see the clouds in the channel but there was no activity. So I sat and waited, and remember the certainty from everyone on the forums that it was definately going to happen.

As always there were shouts of BUST, BUST! But the synoptic setup was already in place - just not activated yet.

There was a strong steady wind blowing in from the sea (was up on Buster Hill - as I often am) and it wasn’t fully dark and I remember seeing the first flashes out past IOW. Within about 15 mins on radar it was already a dense cluster and more strikes popping up in new areas all along the coast!

I remember so clearly how convinced people were that we were about to see the storm initiate. So glad they did - it was an unforgettable event!

[Andy Pepler]

its coming up to Glastonbury week ..its a tradition that something happens

[ChezWeather]

Well then folks, our first proper thunderstorm event of 2019 may be upon us! Good to see a MDT from ConvectiveWeather, along with support from Tony Gilbert over on UKWW. Picked a few of the precip runs out below, not to be taken literally of course!! Its clear that this will be a very uncertain situation! 

Euro4 has showers breaking out way far West on Tues evening 

Followed by storms moving into C/S England early Wed morning

Arome has a huge mass of precip moving into S England just after dark

Followed by another round for the far SE going into Wed morning 

Netweather SR has storms moving NE over London and into EA through Tues afternoon

Followed by a Kent Clipper scenario for the evening/night

So a pretty big variance at this stage, best advice for tomorrow would be load up the radar and hope for the best! 

 

 

[Harry]

Estofex having (pretty much) none of it.

[Andy Pepler]

5 minutes ago, Harry said:

Estofex having (pretty much) none of it.

are thay asleep over there ??

[poseidon]

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Estofex having (pretty much) none of it.

Looks like they're going with the Kent clipper option.

[Hodgheg]

7 minutes ago, Harry said:

Estofex having (pretty much) none of it.

Yea but we've seen that before haven't we? 

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, John90 said:

Yea but we've seen that before haven't we? 

To be honest @John90 I’m struggling to find a model which suggests thundery activity and more extensive than estofex forecast. Granted there’s a few models (eg Euro4) keen to throw some heavy rain across C/S/SE England but I’m not seeing much more than meagre instability across Kent and surrounding areas on any model. 

Edited June 17, 2019 by Harry

[matty40s]

39 minutes ago, Andy Pepler said:

its coming up to Glastonbury week ..its a tradition that something happens

There are some poor people still not dug themselves out of Download yet....

[Andy Pepler]

thay have left them for time team 3025 lol

[matty40s]

2 hours ago, StormChaseUK said:

Have you tried a dehumidifier?

what, in his sauna?

[Hodgheg]

17 minutes ago, Harry said:

To be honest @John90 I’m struggling to find a model which suggests thundery activity and more extensive than estofex forecast. Granted there’s a few models (eg Euro4) keen to throw some heavy rain across C/S/SE England but I’m not seeing much more than meagre instability across Kent and surrounding areas on any model. 

I'm no expert at all but would like to see more Cape this side of the channel. Are mid level Cape charts available anywhere?

Edit: Should that be mixed layer Cape?

Edited June 17, 2019 by John90

[StormLoser]

55 minutes ago, Harry said:

To be honest @John90 I’m struggling to find a model which suggests thundery activity and more extensive than estofex forecast. Granted there’s a few models (eg Euro4) keen to throw some heavy rain across C/S/SE England but I’m not seeing much more than meagre instability across Kent and surrounding areas on any model. 

I just saw the Estofex forecast. They have the later shortwave trough going through northern France and Belgium rather than pushing into the UK. It's virtually the opposite of the Met Office.

Past experience lends me to go with the Estofex forecast for now, though I'm happy to be proved wrong. 

Edited June 17, 2019 by StormLoser

[Another Kent clipper]

3 hours ago, Sun & Tanned said:

Hi everyone, hope your all well, 

I wondered if you guy's and girl's can help.

You may have seen from my previous posts I have a child with learning difficulties who hates thunder storms.

I appreciate its difficult to predict but I live in Wendover near to Aylesbury.

So I can prepare him in advance, could any of you experienced people help me to see if we are likely to have anything here? 

I've looked at so many forecasts and they all say different! 

I really do appreciate all your help.

Many thanks so much in advance it means a lot. 

I'm not an expert but from what I've read, I'd be leaning towards a yes for tomorrow.  I do hope otherwise though, so that your child doesn't hear any thunder.  I've been in that position myself back in the day, head under the pillow etc.  I also hope someone in the know can better my answer too

Edited June 18, 2019 by Another Kent clipper

[Andy Pepler]

those storms south of jersey fired up real quick ...lets see if thay make it across.. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

And we have lift off.. 

 

Going to be a longgggggg day 

 

And I'm chefing at Royal ascot all week on a bbq.. Quality 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Want this first lot to head up through East Sussex. Looking promising so far, but don’t think a lot of the electrical stuff will male it across the channel.

Temperatures should be good enough though by 11ish - so who knows

[Another Kent clipper]

Looks like thunder and toast will be on the 9am breakfast menu in Hampshire.  I don't see the channel killing this little fireball off.

 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Another Kent clipper

[Hodgheg]

Well the 00z GFS brings things a bit closer. Hopefully that trend continues this morning

[Guest]

37 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Looks like thunder and toast will be on the 9am breakfast menu in Hampshire.  I don't see the channel killing this little fireball off.

 

Looks like one for IOW with occasional sferics on the eastern side. Standard behaviour would be for them to die off about 20mes offshore

[Harry]

Biscay lighting up like a Christmas tree!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Those channel showers seem to be regenerating slightly further to the east each time

[Azazel]

Personally, I think we are in for a mass of rain with a few rumbles and flashes - I think those expecting a strobe light show are going to be disappointed. Good luck though everyone!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

Personally, I think we are in for a mass of rain with a few rumbles and flashes - I think those expecting a strobe light show are going to be disappointed. Good luck though everyone!

Conditions suggest the opposite... If things go to plan.. Which they never do 

[LightningLover]

Come on, SUSSEX! first real storm potential of the year today! Could get quite the channel light show later! Good job it came AFTER my exams, eh?