Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Sparkiee storm]

With all these Kent clippers and East England Clippers being mentioned, those are all wrong, what we do need is one almighty MCS British Isles hitter, no clippers lol.

[Swansonson69]

1 minute ago, Sparkiee storm said:

With all these Kent clippers and East England Clippers being mentioned, those are all wrong, what we do need is one almighty MCS British Isles hitter, no clippers lol.

That would be nice. So everyone gets a bit. 

[Sparkiee storm]

Just now, Swansonson69 said:

That would be nice. So everyone gets a bit. 

Yep exactly, either one big one, or several storms widespread with a lot of shear too so they last a long time. We can dream haha 

[Zak M]

@The PIT  Looks like a storm is heading your way, your first for the year 

[Swansonson69]

18 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Yep exactly, either one big one, or several storms widespread with a lot of shear too so they last a long time. We can dream haha 

One day it'll happen. It'll be one of those once in a life time things like last year on 27th July. 

[The PIT]

Surprise surprise the front has survived bouncing it down.

[Sparkiee storm]

26 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

One day it'll happen. It'll be one of those once in a life time things like last year on 27th July. 

We in the West Midlands didn't get the storms of 27th July, but we had the ones on 27th May last year which were also the biggest storms in have ever seen, flooded all streets around here, and tragically killed an elderly man in a deep flood. Bolts were hitting all over and all this continues for around 4 hours. Also this came after the night before where there was an amazing Lightning Display then too.

[The PIT]

According to netweather radar the system produced some lightning to the south of us before it passed through.

[Swansonson69]

4 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

We in the West Midlands didn't get the storms of 27th July, but we had the ones on 27th May last year which were also the biggest storms in have ever seen, flooded all streets around here, and tragically killed an elderly man in a deep flood. Bolts were hitting all over and all this continues for around 4 hours. Also this came after the night before where there was an amazing Lightning Display then too.

We in the east Midlands didn't get the may 27th storms but there was a storm that was over Aylesbury that could be seen on the south coast. That was a supercell. 

[Zak M]

A storm has sparked off around 40 miles to my west, not visible at this moment unfortunately although it is getting really convective here. Some nice cloudscapes to my west which I think could be part of the storm too.

[Sparkiee storm]

22 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

We in the east Midlands didn't get the may 27th storms but there was a storm that was over Aylesbury that could be seen on the south coast. That was a supercell. 

Yeah, there are plenty of video's of the Aylesbury storm, even seeing the lightning from distance too. I think I read somewhere that the West Midlands storm could be seem as far south as Oxford and as far North as Manchester, definite multicell but wouldn't be surprised if there was the odd supercell too as there was some pretty large hail with some of them.

 

Very Convective here right now too with some extremely large rain drops falling. 

Edit - Now just under pea sized Hail. Turning into a pretty interesting day.

Edited June 15, 2019 by Sparkiee storm

[smistry]

Just on the edge of this line of showers in Rugby and had a 10-minute spell of rain....heard distant murmurs of thunder coming from the south.

[Swansonson69]

All cells missed me but I'm not too bothered. 

[Zak M]

Another storm over NNE Birmingham.

[Harry]

Latest 06z and 12z GFS runs not looking good for next week unfortunately - delays the arrival of the plume then shunts it east too quickly. 

Still time for a swing back in our favour but not amazing at the moment sadly.

[Polar Maritime]

Very heavy rain and a big crack of thunder and lightning just 

[The PIT]

Looks like Chesterfield and Clay Cross may get lucky.

[Swansonson69]

30 minutes ago, Harry said:

Latest 06z and 12z GFS runs not looking good for next week unfortunately - delays the arrival of the plume then shunts it east too quickly. 

Still time for a swing back in our favour but not amazing at the moment sadly.

I don't know what you're looking at but it looks better in my opinion. It has the push of warmth and a thundery low forming over England and Wales. 

Edited June 15, 2019 by Swansonson69

[Derecho]

Turning very dark here in Hull with some distant rumbles of thunder.

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

I don't know what you're looking at but it looks better in my opinion. It has the push of warmth and a thundery low forming over England and Wales. 

I’m looking at the GFS SBCAPE and Storm Risk charts. I seldom look at the precip charts as without instability it’ll almost certainly just be (perhaps heavy) rain.

[Derecho]

39 minutes ago, Harry said:

Latest 06z and 12z GFS runs not looking good for next week unfortunately - delays the arrival of the plume then shunts it east too quickly. 

Still time for a swing back in our favour but not amazing at the moment sadly.

It does closely resemble what we saw on 2nd of June with the plume being whisked away too quickly so there is a risk it could be a bust. Plumes rarely ever get corrected westwards but the ECM 00z looked better.

[Swansonson69]

5 minutes ago, Harry said:

I’m looking at the GFS SBCAPE and Storm Risk charts. I seldom look at the precip charts as without instability it’ll almost certainly just be (perhaps heavy) rain.

I fail to how there's no istability, it's still showing 1'500J-2,000J of CAPE for whole of the east side of England. The GFS has just had a massive upgrade which is messing with the outputs and other sites. Probably why we're seeing 2 different things. 

Edited June 15, 2019 by Swansonson69

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

I fail to how there's no istability, it's still showing 1'500J-2,000J of CAPE for whole of the east side of England. The GFS has just had a massive upgrade which is messing with the outputs and other sites. Probably why we're seeing 2 different things. 

Maybe some storms clipping the SE but not much instability elsewhere. Compared to earlier output Harry has a point. I don't think the upgrade to the GFS is responsible for it. Here is the 12z compared to last nights 18z.

[Swansonson69]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Maybe some storms clipping the SE but not much instability elsewhere. Compared to earlier output Harry has a point. I don't think the upgrade to the GFS is responsible for it. Here is the 12z compared to last nights 18z.

Not what I'm seeing. Although the continent looks more juicy then the other one. 

Edited June 15, 2019 by Swansonson69

[Harry]

Let’s see what the 18z brings...but GFS in the past two runs (compared with 24 hours ago) most definitely showing an eastward shunt.

I have seen in the past few years westward trends as models evolve...given the slack flow overall anything’s possible.

What charts are you looking at @Swansonson69?

Edited June 15, 2019 by Harry