Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

10 hours ago, Swansonson69 said:

Quiet right my friend. There's got to be a repeat of the portsmouth 1874 EF4 tornado at some point (probably wrong on the date). You can have all the CAPE in the world but with no trigger it's wasted. Hoping for a trigger tomorrow. Mind you I saw a line of small towers of conviction to my south today which I didn't expect. 

Small towers of conviction?

Ranby Prison?

Edit: That joke required research

Edited June 2, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Next Monday and Tuesday looking jolly good if this came off

Storms so severe that Southampton would end up in the midlands

Edited June 2, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[AnvilCrawlers]

31 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Next Monday and Tuesday looking jolly good if this came off

Storms so severe that Southampton would end up in the midlands

Keeps changing though as at one point was thursday and friday for storms,i also  check the precipt chart and it shows area where storms may hit.This tuesday from 13:00 for SW if it pans out according to precipt  chart

Edited June 2, 2019 by Ndc Ozzie

[AnvilCrawlers]

11 hours ago, Swansonson69 said:

Quiet right my friend. There's got to be a repeat of the portsmouth 1874 EF4 tornado at some point (probably wrong on the date). You can have all the CAPE in the world but with no trigger it's wasted. Hoping for a trigger tomorrow. Mind you I saw a line of small towers of conviction to my south today which I didn't expect. 

http://www.torro.org.uk/whirlwind_info.php

[Swansonson69]

4 minutes ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

http://www.torro.org.uk/whirlwind_info.php

Thank you. 

[ChezWeather]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Next Monday and Tuesday looking jolly good if this came off

Storms so severe that Southampton would end up in the midlands

When did they move London to Lincolnshire? i must have missed that! 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

When did they move London to Lincolnshire? i must have missed that! 

Makes sense though, doesn’t it?

[Swansonson69]

3 hours ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

http://www.torro.org.uk/whirlwind_info.php

Towers going up to my south west. 

[Robbie Garrett]

A line from Den Helder to Mons across BENELUX is doing well. Nothing new then...

 

Nice active cell west of Brussels.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

3 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

A line from Den Helder to Mons across BENELUX is doing well. Nothing new then...

 

Nice active cell west of Brussels.

Could actually make the tops of those CB’s out on the eastern horizon earlier! Too much cloud in the way now. 

[Robbie Garrett]

5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Could actually make the tops of those CB’s out on the eastern horizon earlier! Too much cloud in the way now. 

I bet, they always do really well. I just think it's the angle of the weather now; the way the natural systems flow across the earth.   

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, Robbie Garrett said:

I bet, they always do really well. I just think it's the angle of the weather now; the way the natural systems flow across the earth.   

I always find its very touch and go if there’s westerly element to the upper level winds. It can and always will have the tendency to throw you out of the game altogether and end up with tonight’s result. And with only the likes of the SE quarter at best being clipped by the main action. 

You need direct upper southerlies for the most part of UK to be in with a decent shot, like May last year and July. The jet stream and 500hpa wind direction governs the main flow and direction of storms generally. Winds at the surface are normally irrelevant, and only play a part in building the storm if it’s Surface Based 

Edited June 2, 2019 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

This for Tuesday and into weds:

[Swansonson69]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

This for Tuesday and into weds:

Strange how my area is in non of those areas yet net weather, BBC/Met office is going for showers/Storms for my area on those days. South east is the best play though I think.  

[BrickFielder]

Timing of how quickly the upper level trough moves in tomorrow differs in the different models, but there is a low level chance of storms tomorrow. For me there are two potential areas of interest. Firstly parts of East Anglia where low level convergence sets up and moisture gets trapped on the warm side of a developing cold front. Secondly along or just ahead of the cold front there is a potential for an MCS with moist profiles. Here I would be looking closely at models for low level jets and considering where the leading edge of any MCS would be.

Both scenarios have some low potential for an isolated moderately severe storm, although we should bear in mind potential cloud cover and temperatures.Primary risk is likely to be heavy rainfall moving in from the west and anything else needs to be reviewed early tomorrow when models begin to agree.

 

[Azazel]

From April 2018 until now has to be the most storm-less period of weather I can recall in my lifetime.

[Chris.R]

I’ve had 9 thunder days here since last April which is slightly above average. Granted only 3 of these have been events with more than one single lightning strike. 

 Maybe some potential here on Wednesday but WRF doesn’t want to know yet. It was showing potential for Tuesday but has dropped this. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

It’s already setting up so that our area is just far enough away from any activity that even at night we won’t be able to see anything.

I think this fully depicts the problem we have in the central south - can’t even see a distant storm let alone hear one nearby. It’s beyond a joke - someone mentioned 8 thunder days in Guildford last year... I don’t even remember 4  

[Chris.R]

WRF 6Z brings back the storm risk somewhat for tomorrow but still shows nothing for Wednesday. 

[Mapantz]

I wonder if @Supacell might be tempted to hop on the ferry across in to Benelux? 

[Supacell]

36 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I wonder if @Supacell might be tempted to hop on the ferry across in to Benelux? 

Funny you should say that! I am very tempted and looking at prices but I may struggle to get off work at such short notice.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I’m in London tomorrow during the day but I have a feeling we’re quiet on weds so I’m wondering whether to try and get a return on the tunnel for the evening and take a tent

[Supacell]

3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m in London tomorrow during the day but I have a feeling we’re quiet on weds so I’m wondering whether to try and get a return on the tunnel for the evening and take a tent

I am not sure the best of the storms will be far enough west to reach Calais. Ideally you would want to be more towards the German border. I have a friend in Dusseldorf but the flights are expensive at such short notice.

[Swansonson69]

2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I am not sure the best of the storms will be far enough west to reach Calais. Ideally you would want to be more towards the German border. I have a friend in Dusseldorf but the flights are expensive at such short notice.

You wanna hope really that the storms are more towards the UK so it doesn't come down to that. 

[Supacell]

7 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

You wanna hope really that the storms are more towards the UK so it doesn't come down to that. 

Checking on the latest charts, Germany is too far east for tomorrow (Belgium/Netherlands best placed). Ideally the storms would be about 300 miles further west than currently forecast and then it would be a case of just a bit of driving. No ferries, flights, tunnels or swimming . But how often have we seen massive storms over the near continent where the UK ends up with nothing!