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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

  At low levels we have moisture advection from out in the bay of Biscay whilst the fringes of the jet stream run across the south at high levels. At the surface we have a number of convergence zones which look to spark off convection.

  Steering winds and winds aloft suggest to me a possibility of back building convection which could give rise to localized flooding. With temperatures at best reaching around 16 degrees we should not expect very strong updrafts, but rear flank downdrafts and outflow boundaries could provided conditions for an isolated more potent storm.

  Forecast skewT's even from a conservative view could produce more instability than suggested by models, but there does seem to be very moist mid levels which could make convection messy.

  Overall cloud tops look somewhat limited, so we should not expect widespread thunderstorms and wind shear although having some directional shear at the very lowest level is pretty weak. Strong winds aloft may also shut down convection as tops shoot ahead of convection. Instability through the zero degree isotherm looks quite strong which could help to sustain some moderate hail.

  Slight chances of thunderstorms with main risks being hail and localized flooding.With very slack winds at the surface there is always the chance of some localized anomalies especially with a south feed of moisture (perhaps a hint of a low level jet on some charts as well). Something to keep a close eye on with an outside chance of a more severe isolated storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

Now that was an impressive flash of lightning, and good clap of thunder! ?️⛈️

Hailstones as well now! Storm almost right overhead! :yahoo:

 

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Edited by Dangerous55019
Forgot to add lightning strike images
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Wow! Just been woken up by loads of lightning alarms. Wasn’t expecting this today. Hopefully it holds together. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

No thunder here but some pretty heavy hail which was starting to lead to a covering.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Floods...
  • Location: Shrewsbury
1 minute ago, Summer of 95 said:

I do believe I just heard two rumbles of thunder. And it's just started raining

We are sort of in a ring of developing showers/cells... the most powerful is north of town. Have had rumbles in the town from one to the south though. 

No rain in the TC so far though....

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Had some heavy rain earlier but no lightning closer than 30 km for a while. There does seem to be more around 30–40 km now though. I see steering winds are only around 10 kM/H which isn’t good. 

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

We seem to be under a convergance zone atm with a strong cell to the north of brum looking as if its backbuilding

worth keeping an eye on

IMG_8255.thumb.jpg.10fb40c8062f24178f6bad64f0cd8c87.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Heavy showers passing here but nothing sparky.

Temp 7c

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Heavy downpour with the odd bit of thunder and lightning at Birmingham International! ⚡

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Just heard thunder with lightning to my East..

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
30 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Builders?

Thunder and lightning.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Wow! I had thrown in the towel long ago but  just had a cell electrify  unexpectedly as it hit land. One strike and a heavy shower. Not bad, definitely more instability than WRF says. 

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 11 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 12 May 2019

ISSUED 20:13 UTC Fri 10 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough axis will be over the North Sea and Germany on Saturday, placing the British Isles on the rear side (and hence forward side of the approaching upper ridge). Residual cool air aloft, dry mid-levels and heating of moist low-level air, combined with orographic forcing and low-level convergence, will help generate a few scattered showers during the day, capable of a few sporadic lightning strikes and some hail in the most intense cells. There may also be a few funnel clouds.

In terms of lightning, the greatest risk appears to be over SE England, and to a lesser-extent over the Pennines and points southeast from there - a couple of low-end SLGTs have been introduced to better highlight the main areas of interest. Any showers/storms that do form will generally decay during the evening hours as daytime heating subsides, though may persist a little longer over the East Midlands as a PV filament slides southeastwards across the area.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-11

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

Does the PV stand for Positive Vorticity?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
19 minutes ago, Greeny said:

Does the PV stand for Positive Vorticity?

Potential Vorticity

Can be deduced on relative vorticity charts, 850/925hPa

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