Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Weather-history]

12 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Failed to have a second go pretty poor show over all here but at least it managed a close rumble which rare these days.

You did better than my area. Didn't even get a close rumble. 

[Chris.R]

Was all around but missed out again. Never mind, nothing new. 

Edited April 24, 2019 by Chris.R

[toggerob]

Looks like Old Trafford got a soaking just in-time before the Derby, the game is still going ahead though.

[Ruck Bodgers]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I wouldn't do that mate. It never thunders here 

 

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Just pooped my pants. Almighty flash then immediate bang. That was close. 

Hey Crewecold, I'm assuming today was a bit of surprise from the usual outings from storms in Crewe today? 

[Ruck Bodgers]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

One flash and that's it folks clearing away now and that should be it for the evening and night.

I really feel for you buddy, I noticed on lightningmaps how there were strikes hitting south of Sheffield, coming towards you, then over the city they stop. Only for them to reappear and hit north of the city. Definitely must say there's something about the Sheffield Storm Shield for sure...

[NUT]

Wonder what Storms have caused the delay for the Glasgow to Gatwick easyjet flight (i should know I'm on it now) 

[mike57]

Storm overhead just after 6 in Bamber Bridge near Preston, looked to be all cloud to cloud strikes, heavy rain for a few minutes, but moved over pretty quickly. First storm of the year, nothing at home on the Yorkshire coast according to mrs.

[Summer Sun]

Good job the fans are not in the stadium yet!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

41 minutes ago, Ruck Bodgers said:

 

Hey Crewecold, I'm assuming today was a bit of surprise from the usual outings from storms in Crewe today? 

A nice surprise, yes

[staplehurst]

Modifying today's 12z upper air sounding from Nottingham Watnall, to a representative surface temperature / dew point for mid/late afternoon over northern England, reveals 1,000 J/kg CAPE.

Air temperatures of approximately 18°C required to break the cap and initiate convection ️

Edited April 24, 2019 by staplehurst

[Greeny]

I'm guessing by the looks of it, it's a shame there isn't enough energy to make more of this coming up from the south due to a cold front and trough this evening.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Don’t know who to believe - Tony at UKWW says the south east corner tomorrow is porticularly likely to get hail and lightning, whereas CW is calling it for the north (again, yawn).

Friday will be more widespread I expect with more areas of the north getting storms. Saturday opens the gates for all, many northern areas will have storms with the south remaining dry.

SUNDAY: Showers heavieszsszszztz ozvezzr nozrzthzzzezzzzrzzzzznzzzzzzzzzz

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 25 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 26 Apr 2019

ISSUED 20:42 UTC Wed 24 Apr 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough, with main axis over Ireland, will slowly creep eastwards across the British Isles during Thursday. This will be accompanied by a marked cold pool aloft, steepening mid-level lapse rates.

Due to the complex upper pattern, there is still at this stage marked variations in NWP guidance as to the exact track / shape / timing of a surface low and associated area of precipitation (occlusion) which will likely move northwards across England and Wales on Thursday morning. Strong upper forcing and marginal instability may result in a few isolated lightning strikes with this feature, though in general the risk is considered rather low.

The main focus for lightning activity will be within the post-frontal environment, as increasing insolation results in surface heating beneath increasingly dry air aloft. This will increase instability, generating 300-500 J/kg CAPE which combined with areas of frictional convergence will aid in the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. 

Greatest risk of lightning is likely to be in a zone from SE Wales / SW Midlands northeastwards to NE / E England during the afternoon and early evening - a low-end SLGT has been issued here. A second area of interest could be inland parts of Ireland, though here a lack of shear suggests convection will be both slow moving and rather "pulse-type", with a risk of some localised water issues due to slow storm motion. Cloud cover is also some concern here given close proximity to some frontal rain at times - a low-end SLGT has been issued here.

In general, the best shear will exist across East Anglia / SE England, though here the potential for deep convection is somewhat restricted due to a shorter land track to the surface wind, and perhaps also slow cloud clearance depending on the timing of the earlier frontal rain. Nonetheless, decaying showers/storms from northern France may push into SE England later in the day, but probably with a weakening trend.

In any case, lightning activity is not expected to be as prolific as was the case on Wednesday, and any individual storm may only produce a few sporadic lightning strikes. Many places within the SLGT areas will likely remain void of any lightning. Quite a few reports of generally small hail are likely, perhaps locally up to 1.5cm in diameter. A couple of funnel clouds / weak tornadoes will be possible, primarily in Ireland with the best low-level convergence. Showers/storms will tend to decrease in intensity and coverage as daytime heating subsides.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-04-25

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Doubt tomo is too much to get excited about anyway - very little electrical activity expected, although some glaciated tops may be visible on any storms that do form.

Bring on the proper stuff I say ?

[Chris.R]

Looking forward to today’s potential. Hopefully will get some good insolation behind this occlusion. I love your classic polar maritime storm day. 

@Dangerous55019

I’m down wind of you today so let’s hope we get lucky. 

Edited April 25, 2019 by Chris.R

[Weather26]

Storm Hannah named by the Irish Met Office for tomorrow night!

 

[Azazel]

Widespread sunshine and showers sort of day today. I think similar area to yesterday could see something a little more organised, from Manchester across to Scunthorpe and the East coast.

[Lu.]

Where dose everyone get there data from (if you dont mind me asking lol)

I only check this website and rely on the storm percentage chart

Todays storms have vanished

[ChezWeather]

Well we currently have a small army of April showers marching Northwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just about anywhere across England could see a few sparks here and there from my view today. A textbook April shower day looks to sum it up. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Lu. said:

Where dose everyone get there data from (if you dont mind me asking lol)

I only check this website and rely on the storm percentage chart

Todays storms have vanished

I wouldn’t expect proper storms today maybe some thundery showers here and there. Give it a few more weeks - this ain’t Benelux (yet) 

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 hour ago, Lu. said:

Where dose everyone get there data from (if you dont mind me asking lol)

I only check this website and rely on the storm percentage chart

Todays storms have vanished

Quite complex, some of the charts. http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/

[Buddiefan]

A few strikes showing up in the South west

[Arnie Pie]

A rash of showers arriving into the WM....popcorn....are you feeling lucky punk

A bit more Sun and we could be in for some cracking cloudscapes later on

[The PIT]

Pretty much another let down today what showers they bare look bigger on the radar than what is actually falling. Need some sunshine to push the temps up.