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Roger J Smith

May 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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10.4c to the 20th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

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Looking at how things are going i won't be surprised to see May also end above average. 

Even with extensive high pressure over the Arctic and persistent low over central Europe we struggle to record a below average month. 😞

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Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

image.thumb.png.8e95c9ea7730caa600ef231ac8cf5391.png

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

image.thumb.png.3f54dfdd64510d4bffd7f424b066719c.pngimage.thumb.png.5beb82ddbda5c44d9ca0ec83f449ed1e.png   

A below average month now looking most likely, possibly by more than 0.5C after corrections if the current forecast is to be believed.

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Sunny Sheffield now at 10.1C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall unchanged at 32.3mm 56% of the monthly average.

I'm now wondering if we will actually hit average. Certainly looking a dry month now as well for us which will tip the balance back towards a dry spring.

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To illustrate how cool it has been, of the forty most recent Mays (1980 to 2019) the CET of 10.4 on 20th would be warmer than only eight and tied with another two. Since we can assume it will probably be adjusted down slightly, it would then be ninth coldest (the eighth coldest is 10.1, the other seven ranged from 7.2 in 1996 to 9.9). 

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A slight rise forecast followed by a flatline to end the month is how I see things, and with any downward adjustment, the balance it probably tilted towards ending up ever so slightly below average.

 

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10.5c to the 21st

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

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Do we have an annual CET competition like there used to be on TWO? Or is it just monthly? I can get a spreadsheet set up 🙂 

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Would you be looking for just the annual CET or a set of monthly forecasts? There is a thread on the forum that collects those predictions but it's not in contest format. 

If you were thinking of just the annual CET then we could add it to the January forecasts and you could set up your spreadsheet then. If you wanted to make it all twelve months with the annual average then I would suggest a separate thread from these contests, J10 and myself would probably prefer not to have to hunt through long posts to find our contest material. So in summary, if it's just a once a year annual CET forecast, that could go into this format (and you would track it), if it's more complex, set up your own thread, I suppose you could start it any time of year but it seems logical to tie it to a calendar year and not have people continuously updating strings of forecasts which means a December time frame and early January cutoff. 

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23 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Would you be looking for just the annual CET or a set of monthly forecasts? There is a thread on the forum that collects those predictions but it's not in contest format. 

If you were thinking of just the annual CET then we could add it to the January forecasts and you could set up your spreadsheet then. If you wanted to make it all twelve months with the annual average then I would suggest a separate thread from these contests, J10 and myself would probably prefer not to have to hunt through long posts to find our contest material. So in summary, if it's just a once a year annual CET forecast, that could go into this format (and you would track it), if it's more complex, set up your own thread, I suppose you could start it any time of year but it seems logical to tie it to a calendar year and not have people continuously updating strings of forecasts which means a December time frame and early January cutoff. 

Ah I was thinking of tallying the monthly contests and seeing who comes out on top at the end of the year. Looking back at the April CET thread, it seems J10 has been keeping track of the monthly predictions however? 🙂 

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18 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A slight rise forecast followed by a flatline to end the month is how I see things, and with any downward adjustment, the balance it probably tilted towards ending up ever so slightly below average.

 

Been some cold nights this month,looks to me going by ECM a cold end to this month so below averge in the 10`s.

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Posted (edited)

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.3C -0.4C below normal. Rainfall unchanged despite having some rain at times in the last four days none of which has been measurable. Although a few miles away a different story. At the moment the rise in the average temps is keeping pace with the normal rise as the month goes on. With more very mild nights to come though this may change.

The last seven days here have been averaging 12.6C. A good 2 degrees or slightly more above normal. This more like June than May.

Edited by The PIT

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The EWP tracker was around 32 mm by 20th, if the current guidance is to be believed this will increase to about 55 mm by end of the month (probably a higher end estimate). If so this will be how the scoring will look by then ...

 

EWP20182019J.xlsx

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Sunny Sheffield at 10.4C -0.4C below normal. Rainfall unchanged at 32.3mm 56% of the monthly average.

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One interesting point about this month I think you will find which makes a big different to this months CET.

If you do a ave max temp and min temp you will find that the min temp would be much much lower than normal.
I reckon the maxs would be close or above average.

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1 hour ago, seaside 60 said:

One interesting point about this month I think you will find which makes a big different to this months CET.

If you do a ave max temp and min temp you will find that the min temp would be much much lower than normal.
I reckon the maxs would be close or above average.

I think your right there, I was thinking that too, night temps have been particularly low for May.

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10.6c to the 22nd

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

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19 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Ah I was thinking of tallying the monthly contests and seeing who comes out on top at the end of the year. Looking back at the April CET thread, it seems J10 has been keeping track of the monthly predictions however? 🙂 

I think you are describing what already happens - the year runs December to November, and the annual winner is announced. 

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5 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

One interesting point about this month I think you will find which makes a big different to this months CET.

If you do a ave max temp and min temp you will find that the min temp would be much much lower than normal.
I reckon the maxs would be close or above average.

Talking of which has any learned person have figures to hand.

I think it would be a very big difference esp compared to recent times, as it always seems the night time temps which bring up the CET these days.

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Overnight low's here just -0.2C below normal.

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4 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

Talking of which has any learned person have figures to hand.

I think it would be a very big difference esp compared to recent times, as it always seems the night time temps which bring up the CET these days.

Minimum and maximum CET data:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_min.html

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

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On ‎14‎/‎05‎/‎2019 at 22:42, DAVID SNOW said:

A cool trend for the last week of May being touted, lets see if the models have this correct.

Looking likely they had the right idea, very good effort considering the range(imo).

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3 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Looking likely they had the right idea, very good effort considering the range(imo).

Yes a very cool final few days if the GFS is to be believed. A CET around 10.8C would be a good bet if that came off I reckon (factoring downwards corrections).

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The six lowest forecasts we have:

 

11.2 ______ Quicksilver1989 (43)

11.2 ______ Thundershine (L3)

11.1 ______ northwest snow (29)

10.9 ______ LetitSnow! (2)

10.1 ______ Kentish Man (51)

  9.3 ______ SLEETY (L1-2)

(the numbers in brackets are order of forecast, L1 means one day late and L3 means three days late.)

 

 

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12 hours ago, Relativistic said:

That just seems wrong, would like to know the min data for down here, it must be well below ave here and maybe above further north.

However we havent had many temps over 14c until the last few days due to the easterlies, so 15c ave max feels wrong to.

Maybe it just goes to show how much the min temps are bringing the ave CET up over the last period of time.

I will have to look at the min ave a bit more.

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