Jump to content

May 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 321
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

The first May Day Bank Holiday was in 1978 on the 1st of May Here are the CETs for the May Day Bank Holidays 1st May 1978: 7.6 7th May 1979: 8.2 5th May 1980: 7.6 4th May 1981: 7.8 3rd Ma

Confirmed as 11.1C: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat 0.6C below the 1981-2010 average 0.1C below the 1961-1990 average Spring was 9.33C, so 35th warmest in t

I emailed Met Office. Ellie a Weather Desk Advisor Met Office Exeter has passed it to the team and The site will be updated soon.

Posted Images

Ok, after what looked like being another very warm May on offer, the models have painted a cooler outlook the last few days.  That said, I feel we are in for some warm/potentially hot weather later on.  I will go for 12.5C and 65mm, please, final answer.

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Table of entries for May 2019

_ extreme forecasts are colour coded. (precip, green is wettest, orange is driest). 

 

CET ___ EWP ___ Forecaster (order of entry) _________ CET ___ EWP ___ Forecaster (order of entry)

17.5 ___200.0 ___ Lettucing Gutted (5) ________________12.3 ___ 67.0 ___ I remember Atlantic 252 (13)

14.0 ___ 12.0 ___ emmett garland (8) _________________12.3 ___ 65.0 ___ snow dayz (28)

13.8 ___ 43.0 ___ Bobd29 (1) _______________________ 12.3 ___ ------ ___ damianslaw (33)

13.5 ___ 42.0 ___ Polar Gael (3) _____________________ 12.3 ___ 53.0 ___ Reef (37)

13.5 ___ ------ ___ Leo97t (9) ________________________12.2 ___ 34.8 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather (10) 

13.3 ___ 61.0 ___ SunnyDazee (7)____________________12.2 ___ 69.0 ___ DAVID SNOW (27)

13.3 ___ ------ ___ Jonathan F. (15) ___________________ 12.2 ___ ------ ___ Mark Bayley (34)

13.3 ___ 44.0 ___ davehsug (32) _____________________12.2 ___ 67.0 ___ Stationary Front (30)

13.3 ___ 96.0 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST (36) ________12.2 ___ ------ ___ summer blizzard (35)

13.2 ___ 83.0 ___ virtualsphere (L1-7) _________________12.2 ___ ------ ___ sundog (49)

13.1 ___ 54.0 ___ Feb1991blizzard (25) _______________ 12.1 ___ ------ ___ snowray (11)

13.0 ___ 40.0 ___ Diagonal Red Line (4) _______________12.0 ___125.0 ___ Weather26 (6)

13.0 ___ 72.5 ___ brmbrmcar (12) ____________________ 12.0 ___ 52.0 ___ Weather-history (23)

13.0 ___ 57.0 ___ CheesepuffScott (45, 7.5)# ___________ 12.0 ___ 85.0 ___ Norrance (41)

12.9 ___ ------ ___ Earthshine (16) ____________________ 12.0 ___ 40.0 ___ The PIT (44)

12.9 ___ ------ ___ Dancerwithwings (21) _______________ 12.0 ___ 62.2 ___ 1989-2018 average

12.7 ___ 80.0 ___ J10 (50) __________________________ 11.9 ___ 71.0 ___ Stargazer (19)

12.7 ___ 75.0 ___ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________ 11.8 ___118.5 ___ Roger J Smith (20)

12.6 ___ 77.0 ___ SteveB (18) _______________________ 11.8 ___ 77.0 ___ Timmytour (24)

12.6 ___ ------ ___ Summer Sun (L2-2) _________________11.8 ___ 55.0 ___ Godber1 (L1-4)

12.5 ___ 75.0 ___ DR(S)NO (14) ______________________11.7 ___ 63.6 ___ 1981-2010 average

12.5 ___ 53.0 ___ JeffC (17) _________________________ 11.7 ___ 50.0 ___ Daniel* (L1-3)

12.5 ___ 60.0 ___ syed2878 (22) ______________________11.6 ___102.0 ___ jonboy (26)

12.5 ___ 65.0 ___ Don (46) __________________________ 11.6 ___ ------ ___ prolongedSnowLover (40) 

12.5 ___ ------ ___ Man With Beard (48) _________________11.5 ___ 85.0 ___ Mulzy (47) 

12.5 ___ 52.0 ___ seaside60 (L1-5) ____________________11.5 ___ ------ ___ Duncan McAlister (L1-1)

12.4 ___ 69.3 ___ Midlands Ice Age (31) ________________ 11.4 ___ 66.0 ___ BornFromTheVoid (38) 

12.4 ___ 49.0 ___ Ed Stone (39, 13.5)# _________________ 11.4 ___ 70.0 ___ Ultima Thule (Whether Idle) (L2-1)

12.4 ___ ------ ___ Walsall Wood Snow (42) ______________11.2 ___ ------ ___ Quicksilver1989 (43)

12.3 ___ 67.0 ___ consensus ________________________ 11.2 ___ 85.9^___ Thundershine (L3)

_________________________________________________ 11.1 ___ ------ ___ northwest snow (29)

_________________________________________________ 10.9 ___135.0 ___ LetitSnow! (2)

_________________________________________________ 10.1 ___ ------ ___ Kentish Man (51)

__________________________________________________  9.3 ___ 67.0 ___ SLEETY (L1-2)

# CET edited, but EWP posted in order of entry shown, unchanged.

^ entered as 135% applied to 1981-2010 normal value of 63.6 mm.

61 CET forecasts, seven are one day late, two are two days late, and one is three days late.

12.3 C is median value (consensus) 

===============================================================================

EWP forecasts in order _ 44 forecasts, 67.0 mm consensus

200 (LG), 135 (LIS),  125 (w26), 118.5 (RJS), 102 (jon),  96 (BFTP), 85.9 (Thu)

 85 (Norr, Mulzy), 83 (vir), 80 (J10), 77 (SteveB, Tim), 75 (DRS, stew) 72.5 (brm), 71 (star), 70 (wh idle)

 69.3 (MIA), 69 (DS), 67 (IRA252, SF, SLE), 66 (BFTV,)  65.5 con, 65 (snowdayz, Don), 63.6 1981-2010, 62.2 1989-2018,

 61 (SDaz),  60 (syed), 57 (CPS), 55 (Godb), 54 (feb91), 53 (JeffC, Reef), 52 (W-h, sea), 50 (Dan*), 49 (Ed S)

 44 (dav), 43 (Bob), 42 (PG), 40 (DRL, PIT), 34.8 (Kirk), 12 (EG)

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Thanks 2
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Left it open yesterday and still forgot to do it.

Late must be my name, missed the Easter comp by a few hours and was 0.01c out.

Reading reports from late middle of month pointed out by some members of the CFS forecasts of a scorching hot May.

Dont see that coming off.

So will go for slightly above average as it never seems to be below these days.

12.5c

52mm 

Edited by seaside 60
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

1981-2010 CET May averages and extremes 1772-2018

 

DATE ____ AVG __ CUM AVG _______ MAX yr ___ MIN yr _______ Running CET extremes

___ 01 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.6 ________16.1 1990,2005 _ 4.2 1866 ____ 16.1 1990,2005_ 4.2 1866

___ 02 ___ 10.4 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.4 1966 __ 3.8 1979 _____ 15.9 1966 ___ 4.1 1979

___ 03 ___ 10.5 ___ 10.5 __________ 17.7 1990 __ 3.1 1877 _____ 16.4 1990 ___ 4.3 1979

___ 04 ___ 10.3 ___ 10.5 __________ 18.0 1834 __ 3.2 1877 _____ 16.8 1990 ___ 4.4 1979

___ 05 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.7 1800 __ 4.0 1979 _____ 16.5 1990 ___ 4.3 1979

___ 06 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.6 __________ 18.8 1867 __ 4.4 1831 _____ 16.0 1990 ___ 4.6 1877, 1979

___ 07 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.7 __________ 16.9 2018 __ 4.1 1879 _____ 15.2 1990 ___ 5.1 1782, 1877, 1979

___ 08 ___ 10.9 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.8 2016 __ 2.9 1861 _____ 14.7 1804, 1995 _ 5.2 1782

___ 09 ___ 10.7 ___ 10.7 _______ 17.6 1945,2016 _ 5.7 1837 _____ 14.7 1800 ___ 5.6 1782

___ 10 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.7 __________ 18.2 1959 __ 4.1 1879  _____ 14.7 2008 ___ 6.0 1782

___ 11 ___ 11.1 ___ 10.7 __________ 18.6 2008 __ 4.1 1773  _____ 15.0 2008 ___ 6.3 1782, 1879

___ 12 ___ 11.3 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.8 1945 __ 4.4 1816  _____ 15.1 2008 ___ 6.6 1782

___ 13 ___ 11.6 ___ 10.8 __________ 17.4 1959 __ 5.0 1915  _____ 15.0 2008 ___ 6.9 1879, 1902

___ 14 ___ 11.7 ___ 10.9 __________ 18.8 1992 __ 3.9 1839  _____ 14.9 2008 ___ 6.7 1902

___ 15 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1833 __ 4.3 1839  _____ 14.9 1833 ___ 6.7 1902

___ 16 ___ 11.5 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1808 __ 5.2 1996  _____ 15.2 1833 ___ 6.9 1902

___ 17 ___ 11.3 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.7 1833 __ 3.6 1935  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.1 1855, 1902

___ 18 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.1 1952 __ 4.1 1872  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1855, 1902, 1996

___ 19 ___ 11.8 ___ 11.1 __________ 20.4 1868 __ 5.2 1872  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902

___ 20 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.1 __________ 17.8 1916 __ 5.5 1907  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902

___ 21 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.2 __________ 18.8 1916 __ 5.7 1894  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902

___ 22 ___ 12.2 ___ 11.2 __________ 19.5 1918 __ 5.0 1867  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.3 1902

___ 23 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.3 __________ 19.5 1922 __ 4.9 1867  _____ 15.5 1833 ___ 7.6 1902

___ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4 __________ 18.8 1953 __ 5.7 1867  _____ 15.5 1833 ___ 7.9 1902

___ 25 ___ 12.5 ___ 11.4 __________ 21.0 1953 __ 6.5 1814  _____ 15.6 1833 ___ 8.0 1885

___ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5 ________18.7 1784,2017__4.6 1821_____ 15.5 1833 ___ 8.1 1782, 1885

___ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5 __________ 19.0 1788 __ 6.6 1984  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 8.2 1885

___ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5 __________ 20.6 1847 __ 6.2 1869  _____ 15.3 1833 ___ 8.5 1782, 1885, 1996

___ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.2 1780 __ 6.2 1869 _____ 15.2 1833 ___ 8.7 1782,1879,1902,1996

___ 30 ___ 13.1 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.0 1944 __ 4.9 1807 _____ 15.1 1833 ___ 8.7 1817, 1902

___ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7 __________ 20.5 1947 __ 6.4 1802  _____ 15.1 1833 ___ 8.7 1817#

# 8.7 was lowest during daily data period but 1698 finished on 8.5 and 1740 on 8.6, these could have had lower running CET values at various points before 31st as well. 

___________________________________________________________________________

Top ten for May and all 20.0+

 1. 21.2 (29th, 1780)

 2. 21.1 (29th, 1944)

 3. 21.0 (25th, 1953), 21.0 (30th, 1944)

 5. 20.8 (29th, 1947)

 6. 20.6 (28th, 1847)

 7. 20.5 (31st, 1947)

 8. 20.4 (19th, 1868)

 9. 20.0 (15th, 1833) 20.0 (16th, 1808), 20.0 (31st, 1781)

(19.9 on 30 May 1947)

_____________________________________________________________________________

In researching that list, found this remarkable sequence in May 1807 ... 19.8 on 25th (record for date is 21.0 in 1953) to 4.9 C on 30th (record minimum).

It is also interesting to note that all of these warm days occurred before or during May 1953. 

The warmest May day since the end of May 1953 has been 19.4 (31 May 1978). The warmest since then was 18.9 (31 May 2003). 

We seem very overdue for some record warmth in mid to late May to add some more 20+ days to this list. But recent years have confined themselves to lower values in the first half of May (plus the tied value of 18.7 on 26th of 2017).

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Thanks 3
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

 

In researching that list, found this remarkable sequence in May 1807 ... 19.8 on 25th (record for date is 21.0 in 1953) to 4.9 C on 30th (record minimum).

 

London, maxima and minima on those days

25th: 85F, 56F

30th: 55F, 42F

  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The first May Day Bank Holiday was in 1978 on the 1st of May
Here are the CETs for the May Day Bank Holidays

1st May 1978: 7.6
7th May 1979: 8.2
5th May 1980: 7.6
4th May 1981: 7.8
3rd May 1982: 7.9
2nd May 1983: 7.4
7th May 1984: 7.6
6th May 1985: 10.0
5th May 1986: 10.8
4th May 1987: 6.9
2nd May 1988: 11.4
1st May 1989: 13.1
7th May 1990: 10.4
6th May 1991: 7.2
4th May 1992: 9.5
3rd May 1993: 8.2
2nd May 1994: 11.8
VE Day 1995: 11.6
6th May 1996: 7.4
5th May 1997: 12.2
4th May 1998: 8.6
3rd May 1999: 14.2
1st May 2000: 11.2
7th May 2001: 9.0
6th May 2002: 10.4
5th May 2003: 11.7
3rd May 2004: 11.0
2nd May 2005: 14.9
1st May 2006: 9.7
7th May 2007: 13.2
5th May 2008: 15.3
4th May 2009: 8.4
3rd May 2010: 6.7
2nd May 2011: 10.5
7th May 2012: 7.8
6th May 2013: 12.7
5th May 2014: 11.1
4th May 2015: 12.2
2nd May 2016: 11.9
1st May 2017: 11.5
7th May 2018: 16.9

 

 Rainfall amounts for England and Wales (mm)

1st May 1978: 6.87
7th May 1979: 2.56
5th May 1980: 0.0
4th May 1981: 0.72
3rd May 1982: 1.8
2nd May 1983: 3.38
7th May 1984: 0.08
6th May 1985: 0.39
5th May 1986: 2.20
4th May 1987: 0.0
2nd May 1988: 4.92
1st May 1989: 0.08
7th May 1990: 1.17
6th May 1991: 1.72
4th May 1992: 0.82
3rd May 1993: 0.0
2nd May 1994: 0.26
VE Day 1995: 0.72
6th May 1996: 0.03
5th May 1997: 10.07
4th May 1998: 0.6
3rd May 1999: 0.01
1st May 2000: 0.03
7th May 2001: 0.01
6th May 2002: 2.02
5th May 2003: 0.16
3rd May 2004: 11.48
2nd May 2005: 2.46
1st May 2006: 0.3
7th May 2007: 2.41
5th May 2008: 0.08
4th May 2009: 0.84
3rd May 2010: 0.41
2nd May 2011: 0.01
7th May 2012: 8.24
6th May 2013: 0.01
5th May 2014: 3.97
4th May 2015: 13.75
2nd May 2016: 2.29
1st May 2017: 0.73
7th May 2018: 0.00 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 4
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Interesting stats above been some real stinkers over the years - 2010 was one to forget !!

2018 stands out a bit!  Will be somewhat different this year......

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Don said:

2018 stands out a bit!  Will be somewhat different this year......

Seemingly justifiably the Mayday holiday has a reputation for often being poor - I would imagine Whitsun would gave much better stats ?? 

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Seemingly justifiably the Mayday holiday has a reputation for often being poor - I would imagine Whitsun would gave much better stats ?? 

Up to 1967, the Whitsun Bank Holiday  fell 7 weeks after Easter. From 1967, it was fixed to the last Monday in May. 
In 1977, 2002 and 2012, , the Bank Holiday was moved to early June for the Silver, Golden and Diamond Jubilees

29th May 1967: 11.7
27th May 1968: 12.7
26th May 1969: 10.5
25th May 1970: 13.9
31st May 1971: 12.9
29th May 1972: 11.3
28th May 1973: 16.1
27th May 1974: 12.8
26th May 1975: 11.5
31st May 1976: 13.4
Silver Jubilee 1977
6th June 1977: 10.5
7th June 1977: 10.1
29th May 1978: 16.0
28th May 1979: 10.7
26th May 1980: 12.6
25th May 1981: 9.8
31st May 1982: 17.4
30th May 1983: 9.4
28th May 1984: 9.2
27th May 1985: 13.5
26th May 1986: 13.5
25th May 1987: 12.7
30th May 1988: 11.8
29th May 1989: 13.4
28th May 1990: 13.7
27th May 1991: 14.2
25th May 1992: 17.2
31st May 1993: 12.4
30th May 1994: 10.5
29th May 1995: 12.8
27th May 1996: 12.2
26th May 1997: 12.3
25th May 1998: 14.0
31st May 1999: 12.2
29th May 2000: 10.8
28th May 2001: 17.6
Golden Jubilee 2002
3rd June: 13.2
4th June: 12.4
26th May 2003: 11.7
31st May 2004: 13.4
30th May 2005: 12.3
29th May 2006: 10.4
28th May 2007: 8.3
26th May 2008: 12.0
25th May 2009: 14.5
31st May 2010: 11.8
30th May 2011: 12.7
Diamond Jubilee
4th June 2012: 10.3
5th June 2012: 10.1
27th May 2013: 10.1
26h May 2014: 11.3
25th May 2015: 10.3
30th May 2016: 12.2
29th May 2017: 15.2
28th May 2018: 17.9 

Edited by Weather-history
  • Thanks 4
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...