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Roger J Smith

May 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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(a) CET May averages and other statistics

___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2018 ___

 

21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day.

Warmest months and warmest third of recent May CET (13/38)

15.1 ... (1833)
13.9 ... (1848)
13.8 ... (1758, 1788)
13.7 ... (1808)
13.6 ... (1727, 1992)

13.5 ... (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947)

13.4 ... 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952)

13.2 ... 2017, 2018

13.1 ... 1998

13.0 ... 1989

12.9 ... 1999

12.6 ... 1990, 2001

12.5 ... 2016

12.3 ... 2006

12.2 ... 2011, 2014

Averages and middle third of recent May CET (13/38)

12.1 ... 2000, 2003, 2004, 2009 

12.0 ... ... ... 2001-2017 average _ _ and _ _ 1989-2018 average

11.9 ... 1988, 2007 _ _ and 1991-2018 average (converging on future 1991-2020 average)

11.8 ... 2002

11.7 ... 1981-2010 average and 1986-2015 average, 2012 CET

11.6 ... 1982, 1995

11.5 ... 1997

11.4 ... 1993, 2005 .. 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... 1981 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2018 average of all data (11.23)

11.1 ... 1986 ... 1801-1900 average

10.9 ... 1985

10.8 ... 1991, 2015

10.7 ... 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average

Coldest Months and coldest third of recent May CET (12/38 starting at 11.2^^)

10.4 ... 2013

10.3 ... 1983

10.1 ... 1987

 9.9 ... 1984

 9.1 ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

 8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest

 8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

 8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

 8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

 8.5 ... 1698 was coldest

 

Extreme cold

3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

___________________________________

Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Tuesday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.

______________________________________

 

(b) England and Wales precip (EWP) contest 

Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present),  

The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. 

 

151.8 ___ max 1766-2018 in 1773)

142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782 

140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967

118.4 ___ maximum 1981-2018 (2007) __ (115.2 in 1983)

 63.6 ___ average 1981-2010

 62.2 ___ average 1989-2018

 13.7 ___ minimum 1981-2018 (1991)

 07.9 ___ (min 1766-2018) in 1844 _ 12.0 in 1896 the only May drier than 1991.

 ________________________________________________________________

Recent ... 2018 _ 51.9 mm ... ... 2017 _ 65.0 mm ... ... 2016 _ 61.7 mm ... ... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ... ... 2014 _ 102.8 mm. 

Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.2 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest. 

 

... Good luck in both contests ... 

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A very warm 13.8 and 43mm for me please

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13.5C and 42.0mm for me please. 

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Probably warm to very warm at times with a sleepy Atlantic.

13*C, and 40mm rainfall please.

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Posted (edited)

Rest in pieces 'spring' 2019!  17.5C  :oldsad:  Last sub 9C May in 1902.  Last sub 10C May in 1996.  Last sub 11C May in 2015.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

Edited by Lettucing Gutted

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12.0C and 125mm Please-I'm currently getting 2007 vibes with this current weather

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On 19/04/2019 at 19:48, Weather26 said:

12.0C and 125mm Please-I'm currently getting 2007 vibes with this current weather

I’m actually getting 2018 vibes. Just seen a 6 month outlook based on the CFS and it’s roasting, absolutely roasting through May, June and July. August was above average warmth and rain, September was warm and October was warm. They have been quite accurate recently too. Obviously August, September or October are harder to read into but the signs for early summer is that it’s gonna be roasting. I’d say 2018 part 2. As for May I’ll go 13.3 degrees and 61mm please.

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Pencil me in at 12.7C.

I am fairly confident of a pretty westerly and potentially wet middle third with a hot and settled late period to the month though like Weather26, i am relatively confident the coming summer will mirror 2017 more than 2018. 

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Think it's gonna be either very hot southerly dominated or northeastern if there is too much northern blocking. I think it will be dry either way slightly leaning for 13.5

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10 hours ago, SunnyDazee said:

I’m actually getting 2018 vibes. Just seen a 6 month outlook based on the CFS and it’s roasting, absolutely roasting through May, June and July. August was above average warmth and rain, September was warm and October was warm. They have been quite accurate recently too. Obviously August, September or October are harder to read into but the signs for early summer is that it’s gonna be roasting. I’d say 2018 part 2. As for May I’ll go 13.3 degrees and 61mm please.

I was actually going to say the same thing and that the CFS v2 six month outlook looks remarkably similar to last summer!  I sometimes think the CFS v2 gets more stick than it deserves.

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I'll go for 12.1c please.

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12.9C and 49mm please.

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12.5c.   75mm.   Thank you please🌦️

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12.5 C and 53 mm please

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12,6c and 77mm please

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