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May 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think a lot of people probably had the easter warm spell in their minds when making their prediction for May. Looking at the latest ECM I think another average month could be in store (the next 10 days are cool to very cool if that is right, so there would be a deficit to make up). May not be the most exciting weather but at least nights would be comfortable sleeping.

I do enjoy warm summer weather but I prefer it with low humidity unless there is a good thunderstorm.

I wasn't thinking about easter personally, i just thought we would get thundery heat at some point - ditto June

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wasn't thinking about easter personally, i just thought we would get thundery heat at some point - ditto June

I think this trend of cool or average weather, with hot or warm humid interludes will lead to more thundery activity between now and August.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Sunny76 said:

I think this trend of cool or average weather, with hot or warm humid interludes will lead to more thundery activity between now and August.

Of course i am hoping though for my own comfort that we have an exceptionally wet and cool summer, 15c Max temps every day and 120mm per month would suit me down to the ground.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Of course i am hoping though for my own comfort that we have an exceptionally wet and cool summer, 15c Max temps every day and 120mm per month would suit me down to the ground.

I find the idea of a dull cool summer a very depressing scenario. I’ve waited all winter for this time of year, longing for warm days and lovely sunny evenings. 

A dreary summer, similar to the early 1980s would be awful. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

 

All stats can be found in this excel file:

 

EWP20182019G.xlsx 92.83 kB · 4 downloads

Where can i find out where i am in the CET competition please?, although won't make great reading after May, can't even see me being in the top 30 now, would need a succession of bang on predictions to get me near the top now.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think for the CET series it has moved over several stations in its duration requires numerous adjustments to make its very long time series homogeneous. I can't remember the exact details but issues such as differences in the time of day the observations were recorded are also important.

As for concerns over the UHI effect that is a bit melodramatic especially when I think the CET nowadays is composed of temperature readings in small towns (I think Stonyhurst is one) and I think the table by optimus prime sums things up quite nicely in that regard!

Anyhow only 0.1C out for this month, still paranoid I estimated too low for June.... how many times have we seen a June run at average in the first half only to shoot up later. This week does look cool though.

But even small towns can be very busy wrt  heavy traffic for many hours, and perhaps shops,buildings having air con, all this must have an effect on the air temperature. Add to that the small town may be downwind of a much larger town or even city.

Would be interesting to see the results of a similar small town, a few miles away that only has horse and carts and open windows for their air con. they wouldn't have central heating, just coal fires that produce soot particles thus reducing some solar output to the surface.

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Monthly

1. northwestsnow - the only player to get it spot on.
2. Quicksilver1989 0.1c out
3. Thundershine 0.1c out

image.thumb.png.4f27fee4e4c4ab6fa5d6d962877d1cce.png

Seasonal

image.thumb.png.e9fed2d669ab7a20ca27abe4ffbf6897.png

The winner for spring was The PIT

with Quicksilver1989 and summer blizzard in 2nd and 3rd.

Overall

A rejig at the top with a 1-2-3 of

BornFromTheVoid, The PIT and Quicksilver1989

image.thumb.png.2f9c8523016c2671e10280273079f2b9.png

Excel spreadsheet will be published tomorrow.

Edited by J10
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57 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Where can i find out where i am in the CET competition please?, although won't make great reading after May, can't even see me being in the top 30 now, would need a succession of bang on predictions to get me near the top now.

Provisionally 24th with the Excel spreadsheet published tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Where can i find out where i am in the CET competition please?, although won't make great reading after May, can't even see me being in the top 30 now, would need a succession of bang on predictions to get me near the top now.

I think that relates to the rainfall totals, I can't find anything for the CET any more either.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
14 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

But even small towns can be very busy wrt  heavy traffic for many hours, and perhaps shops,buildings having air con, all this must have an effect on the air temperature. Add to that the small town may be downwind of a much larger town or even city.

Would be interesting to see the results of a similar small town, a few miles away that only has horse and carts and open windows for their air con. they wouldn't have central heating, just coal fires that produce soot particles thus reducing some solar output to the surface.

I'm not sure why air conditioning would have an impact. The urban heat island effect is a result of less vegetation being able to take in less heat. Because urban surfaces often absorb heat and give it off during the night hours, urban areas are warmer then the surrounding countryside.

These factors are considered however in global temperature calculation. A study led by Berkeley verified this by comparing the temperatures from especially rural stations to the global land surface temperature record. Anthony Watts commented on the study beforehand saying:

"... I’m prepared to accept whatever result they produce, even if it proves my premise wrong. I’m taking this bold step because the method has promise. So let’s not pay attention to the little yippers who want to tear it down before they even see the results."

The temperature analysis by Berkeley produced almost identical results to other land surface temperature datasets, so what more do you want? Surely if the UHI effect was responsible for anthropogenic climate change, the oceans and the arctic wouldn't be warming? Anthony Watts was silent following the results of the Berkeley study. The UHI argument has long sailed by...

image.thumb.png.0a44380711e39e5879adcccd3af56704.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I can see the logic behind @DAVID SNOW's a/c question: if you have a million air-conditioned buildings, the unwanted heat must be dumped into the wider environment...isn't that how the refrigeration-cycle works?

But, is it significant?:unknw:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I can see the logic behind the a/c question: if you have a million air-conditioned buildings, the unwanted heat must be dumped into the wider environment...isn't that how the refrigeration-cycle works?

But, is it significant?:unknw:

That's correct - AC units are basically massive building-scale refrigerators, so they expel very hot air out into the environment in order to keep the interior cool.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I can see the logic behind @DAVID SNOW's a/c question: if you have a million air-conditioned buildings, the unwanted heat must be dumped into the wider environment...isn't that how the refrigeration-cycle works?

But, is it significant?:unknw:

Yup but it would take a huge amount of rooms with air con on at the same time and its effects are local whereas the impact of concrete is something that would be much greater over a wider area.

So unless a temperature station is particularly badly placed (i.e next to a skyscraper - which no one would do) I can't see that making an impact.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I can see the logic behind @DAVID SNOW's a/c question: if you have a million air-conditioned buildings, the unwanted heat must be dumped into the wider environment...isn't that how the refrigeration-cycle works?

But, is it significant?:unknw:

Pete,what about a million 'mobile' AC units.......cars!

Last one from me.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Studies of urban heat islands have shown that the amount of warming increases rather slowly once you get past a population of about 25,000 people, for a town that size the urban heat effect over a year might amount to 1 C deg, then for a much larger city of several million it might be 2 degrees. Weather stations that are located near an urban-rural boundary might show a slight effect, and as airports are often in that sort of location, just moving an observing site a short distance within the airport property can make a significant difference to average temperatures from that location. A month that is cloudy and windy will show smaller urban effects than one which is relatively calm and clear. The urban heat island is much larger at night than in the daytime. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
18 hours ago, J10 said:

CET Spreadsheet as promised above

May 19 CET.xlsx 379.4 kB · 5 downloads

Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Combined rankings for CET and EWP contests

This table includes only those players ranked in the CET contest, where 4 of 6 contests must be entered to attain a rank. For those CET entrants who have no EWP rank, they appear in this table at the position of their CET rank alone. Ranks in the table are only given to those with an average based on equal numbers of entries, if you have a much lower rank in EWP due to infrequent entries then you appear at your CET rank and your EWP rank has an asterisk beside it. No average is calculated in those few cases. Combined ranks in the table refer to the column "avg" which is the average of the two contest ranks. Where different numbers of months played, two numbers appear, first one is number of CET forecasts, second is number of EWP forecasts (this is zero for all unranked entrants shown unless otherwise denoted).

Combined

/ rank__Forecaster _____ CET rank __ EWP rank ____avg______months

_ 01 __ Born from the Void __ 1 ______ 3 __________ 2.0 ______ 6

_ --- ____ Quicksilver 1989 __ 3 ____________________________

_ 02 __ Reef ______________8 ______ 1 __________ 4.5 ______ 6 

_ 03 __ weather-history _____ 4 ______ 6 __________ 5.0 ______ 6

_ 04 __ Ed Stone __________ 5 ______ 8 __________ 6.5 ______ 6

_ 05 __ CheesepuffScott ____ 6 ______ 9 __________ 7.5 ______ 6

_ 06 __ The PIT ___________ 2 _____ 15 __________ 8.5 ______ 6

_ 07 __ Stargazer __________7 _____ 12 __________ 9.5 ______ 6

_ 08 __ mulzy ____________T15 ______ 7 __________11.0 _____ 6

_ --- __ Jonathan F. ________11 ____________________________ 6

_T09 __DAVID SNOW _____ 12 ______ 13 _________ 12.5______ 6

_T09 __seaside 60 ________ 23 _______2 __________12.5 _____ 6

_ --- __ Duncan McAlister ___13 ____________________________ 6

_ 11 __ feb1991blizzard ____ 23 ______ 4 __________ 13.5 _____ 6

_ 12 __ Norrance __________ 9 _____T19 _________ 14.0 ______ 6

_ --- __ summer blizzard ____ 17 ____________________________ 6

_ 13 __ Stationary Front _____10 ______ 25 _________17.5 ______ 6

_ 14 __ Don ______________ 19 _____T19 _________ 19.0 ______ 6

_ 15 __ Steve B __________T15 ______ 24 _________ 19.5 ______ 6

_ --- __ Man with Beard _____ 20  ___________________________  6

_ 16 __ Ultima Thule _______ 21 _____T19 _________ 20.0 ______ 5

_ 17 __ J10 ______________ 28 ______ 14 _________ 21.0 ______ 6

_ --- __ sundog ___________ 22  ____________________________ 6

_ 18 __ Blast from the Past __36 ______ 11 _________ 23.5 ______ 6

_ --- __ damianslaw________ 25  ____________________________ 6

_ --- __ Mark Bayley _______ 26  ____________________________ 6

_T19__ Weather26 ________ 14 ______ 39 _________ 26.5 ______ 6

_T19__ Roger J Smith _____ 35 ______ 18 _________ 26.5 ______ 6

_ --- __ Summer Sun _______27  ____________________________ 6

_ 21 __ DiagonalRedLine ___ 46 ______ 10 __________ 28.0 ______5

_T22 __Bobd29 ___________ 44 ______ 16 _________ 30.0 ______ 6

_T22 __Thundery Wintry Sh _ 38 ______ 22 _________ 30.0 ______ 4

_ 24 __ timmytour _________ 18 ______ 43 _________ 30.5 ______ 6

_ 25 __ daniel* ____________57 _______ 5 _________ 31.0 ______ 6

_ 26 __ davehsug _________ 40 ______ 23 _________ 31.5 ______ 6

_ 27 __ virtualsphere _______29 ______T35 _________32.0 ______ 6,5

_ --- __ nn2013 ___________ 32 ______ 60* ___________________5,1

_T28__ syed2878 _________ 33 ______ 32 _________ 32.5 ______ 6

_T28__ Kirkcaldy Weather __ 34 ______ 31 _________ 32.5 ______ 6

_T28__ DR(S)NO _________ 37 ______T28_________ 32.5 ______ 6

_ 31 __ Midlands Ice Age ___ 49 ______ 17 _________ 33.0 ______ 6

_ 32 __ Let It Snow! _______ 30 ______ 37 _________ 33.5 ______ 6,5

_ 33 __ Pegg24 ___________39 ______T35 _________37.0 ______ 5

_T34__ JeffC _____________ 51 ______T28_________ 39.5 ______6

_T34 __SLEETY __________ 52 ______ 27 _________ 39.5 ______ 5

_T34__ Godber1 __________ 53 ______ 26 _________ 39.5 ______ 6,5

_ 37 __ jonboy ____________50 ______ 30 _________ 40.0 ______ 6

_T38__ Polar Gael ________ 47 ______ 34 _________ 40.5 ______ 6

_T38__ I Rem Atl 252 ______ 31 ______ 50 _________ 40.5 ______ 6

_ --- __ Dancerwithwings ____42  ____________________________ 6

_ 40 __ Earthshine (Eve Star)_41 ______ 45 _________ 43.0 ______ 4,2

_ --- __ Walsall Wood Snow _ 43  ____________________________ 6

_T41__ stewfox ___________48 ______ 40 _________ 44.0 ______ 6

_T41__ brmbrmcar ________ 55 ______ 33 _________ 44.0 ______ 6

_ --- __ Kentish Man _______ 45  ____________________________ 6

_ --- __ snowray __________ 54  ____________________________ 6

_ --- __ Leo97t ____________56 ______ 51*___________________ 5,1

_ --- __ ProlongedSnowLover_58 ____________________________ 6

_ 43 __ Lettucing Gutted ____ 59 ______ 66 __________ 63.5 ____ 6

______________________________________________________________

This table has been adjusted for any changing ranks after May scores in EWP confirmed. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

May EWP is now confirmed at 45.8 mm. This produced two slight changes in the scoring, EdStone and CheesepuffScott changed positions and so did Polar Gael and brmbrmcar in the annual standings. There were no changes to the top of the spring 2019 leaderboard. The "ultimate scoring" based on latest revisions has also changed with April being downgraded to 45.9 mm now (was 46.4 mm earlier). This made a few minor changes to the details there. 

Although almost identical to the previous version, this is the new scoring table in excel format:

 

EWP20182019G.xlsx

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

May EWP is now confirmed at 45.8 mm.

 

EWP20182019G.xlsx 93.47 kB · 0 downloads

Amazingly it was only 0.1mm less than April, makes you wonder when was the last time two consecutive months had identical rainfall totals or within 0.1mm of each, if at all?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Well as you know they like to adjust them for several more months yet, I've seen cases where numbers in the table are tweaked four or five months later. So there's no telling how far apart these two will end up eventually. But here's the complete list of cases (that I found) where two consecutive months fell within 0.5 mm of each other.

1786 Sep-Oct 109.0 108.9

1787 May-June 49.9 50.0

1789 June-July 128.0 128.0

1837 Nov-Dec 77.9 78.3

1843 Jan-Feb 76.5 76.9

1859 Jan-Feb 55.4 55.0 

1862 Jul-Aug 72.1 72.2

1875-76 Dec-Jan 47.5 47.1

1888 Jan-Feb 39.0 38.9

1902 Jan-Feb 44.9 44.4

1907 May-June 91.4 91.0

1915 Mar-Apr 35.4 35.7

1918-1919 Dec-Jan 122.5 122.4

1920 Sep-Oct 71.1 70.9

1931 Jan-Feb 79.6 79.1

1931 Apr-June 93.8 93.5 93.2

1943 Sep-Oct 85.7 85.2

1945 May-Jun 83.2 83.1

1958-59 Dec-Jan 104.6 104.5

1961 May-Jun 39.0 39.5

1972 Feb-Mar 75.6 75.4

1973 Jan-Feb 46.1 45.8

2004 Feb-Mar 50.2 50.2

2007 Sep-Oct 48.9 49.4 

2019 Apr-May 45.9 45.8

So in 253 years, there were 26 cases within 0.5 mm of which ten were as close as 0.1 (only two were exactly the same, in 1789 and 2004). Those within 0.1 are highlighted in red. 

As the method used was only visual inspection I would imagine that I might have missed one or two cases, but they sometimes wait over thirty years for an appearance. There was only one run of three consecutive, each of Mar, Apr and May 1931, which followed another pair in Jan-Feb of that year.  

The cases are more frequent around December to February as well as May-June, and no cases of Aug-Sep or Oct-Nov were spotted. 

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