May 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

11.4c to the 30th

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker was 44 mm after 29 days, only small amounts indicated for 30th and today (mostly in north) could make the finish as low as 45 mm.

Will post preliminary scoring when the tracker reaches end of month. 

[snowray]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

11.4c to the 30th

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

Surprised to see that the apx 17c from yesterday only produced a 0.01c rise, must be due to rounding up and down.

[damianslaw]

Suspect will see a 0.1 degree rise to produce a finish figure of 11.5 degrees - expecting another downward adjustment but how much? 

[reef]

Confirmed as 11.1C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

0.6C below the 1981-2010 average
0.1C below the 1961-1990 average

Spring was 9.33C, so 35th warmest in the CET series.

Edited June 1, 2019 by reef

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield warmer than the CET zone at 11.5C strange that. Rainfall finished at 36.1mm 62.6% of the monthly average.

Overall Spring at 9.3C +0.5C above normal.

I got rainfall wrong earlier and it comes in at 163.3mm 88.5% of the Spring Average.

[Don]

1 hour ago, reef said:

Confirmed as 11.1C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

0.6C below the 1981-2010 average
0.1C below the 1961-1990 average

Spring was 9.33C, so 35th warmest in the CET series.

A shade under the 61-90 average, then.

[feb1991blizzard]

Honestly don't get what these corrections are in aid of, another ridiculous one.

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, reef said:

Confirmed as 11.1C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

0.6C below the 1981-2010 average
0.1C below the 1961-1990 average

Spring was 9.33C, so 35th warmest in the CET series.

You could argue the worst type of Spring, progressively getting less and less warm with respect to their average with each month. 

 

[The PIT]

41 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Honestly don't get what these corrections are in aid of, another ridiculous one.

It's called getting the data correct and considering Governments may use the data for policies it needs to be correct.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, The PIT said:

It's called getting the data correct and considering Governments may use the data for policies it needs to be correct.

If a weather station reads 19c then its 19c, if it isn't then the weather station is in the wrong position (which i doubt a Met Office one would be), or if its malfunctioning and you cannot just guess what it should be reading so as to provide data, plus why is it always a downward correction?, i guess the only positive i suppose is at least we know they are not artificially inflating temps to make climate change look worse than it is.

Edited June 1, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Weather-history]

The CETs for this year so far are pretty similiar to those of 1961. April is the biggest difference between the two but it has been pretty similiar.

[Methuselah]

I've always assumed that downward adjustments are there to make allowances for the UHI effect, as minimum temps in places like Central London are very unrepresentative of the real picture; though the occasional upward correction (it only takes one!) makes that assumption seem rather daft...?

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I've always assumed that downward adjustments are there to make allowances for the UHI effect, as minimum temps in places like Central London are very unrepresentative of the real picture; though the occasional upward correction (it only takes one!) makes that assumption seem rather daft...?

To be fair though with the 300000+ net annual migration and population explosion of uk residents not set to slow down anytime soon, you cannot put the UHI effect down as an anomaly as its going to increase, there will be much wider areas with this within the next 1-200 years.

[Roger J Smith]

Part of the usual reason for adjustments is that days are standardized to calendar days and not the off-set periods used in the provisional numbers. Not sure how big a factor that was here. A day with cooler evening than morning temperatures will be adjusted down in that scenario and very few days get adjusted up (in the winter you could see it with an evening temperature rise perhaps). I realize there are other factors that go into these adjustments. RJS error adjustment is a leading candidate.

 

[Roger J Smith]

Final scoring will be confirmed by J10 later, but from the table of entries, this would be the top ten in scoring. Only two forecasts were colder than those in this list. the numbers in brackets show order of entry which is used to break ties of equal error. Two of these were significantly late which may affect the scoring ranks too.

 

Rank __ Fcst __ error __ Forecaster

_ 01 __ 11.1 ___ 0.0 ___ northwest snow (29)

_ 02 __ 11.2 ___+0.1 ___ Quicksilver1989 (43)

_ 03 __ 11.2 ___+0.1 ___ Thundershine (L3d)

_ 04 __ 10.9 ___--0.2 ___ LetitSnow! (2)

_ 05 __ 11.4 ___+0.3 ___ BornFromTheVoid (38) 

_ 06 __ 11.4 ___+0.3 ___ Ultima Thule (Whether Idle) (L2d-1)

_ 07 __ 11.5 ___+0.4 ___ Mulzy (47) 

_ 08 __ 11.5 ___+0.4 ___ Duncan McAlister (L1d-1)

_ 09 __ 11.6 ___+0.5 ___ jonboy (26)

_ 10 __ 11.6 ___+0.5 ___ prolongedSnowLover (40) 

============================================================================================

Meanwhile, an updated report on the scoring exploits of the two normals and consensus ...

Dec 2018 __________________________________ Jan 2019 __________________________ Feb 2019 _______________

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ________ FCST __ error __ rank __ points ________ FCST __ error __ rank __ points

Consensus_ 5.0 __ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _________3.5 ___ -0.5 ___16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6 ___ 4.0 ___ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1

1989-2018*_4.9 __ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _________4.7 ___ +0.7 ___21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4 ___ 4.9 ___ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3

1981-2010__4.6 __ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 ___4.4 ___ +0.4 ___14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4 ___ 4.4 ___ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0

 

March 2019 _________________________________ April 2019 _________________________ May 2019

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points _________FCST __ error __ rank __ points _______ FCST __ error __ rank __ points

 consensus _ 6.9 __ --0.9 _ 29 to 33 _ 48.4 to 54.8 __ 8.4 ___ --0.7 __ 24 to 28 _ 55.9 to 62.3 __ 12.3 ___ +1.2 _ 28 to 31 _ 50.0 to 55.0

1989-2018 _ 6.8 __ --1.0 _ 34 to 35 _ 46.2 to 47.8 ___8.8 ___ --0.3 ___ 9 to 13 _ 80.3 to 86.9 __ 12.0 ___ +0.9 _ 17 to 20 _ 68.3 to 73.3

1981-2010 _ 6.6 __ --1.2 _ 39 to 39 _ 39.7 _________8.5 ___ --0.6 __ 20 to 23 _ 63.9 to 68.6 __ 11.7 ___ +0.6 _ 11 to 11 _ 83.3

 

Average (6 months)

__________ abs err __ rank ___ points

consensus __ 1.32 __ 27 to 31 __ 55.1 to 59.7

1989-2018 __ 1.12 __ 21 to 23 __ 66.0 to 68.6

1981-2010 __ 1.23 __ 24 to 26 __ 62.5 to 64.5

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Our group effort in May was outdone by the two normals and this leaves the contest year average score significantly lower for consensus than either normal, with the most recent period of 1989-2018 faring better than 1981-2010. 

 

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair though with the 300000+ net annual migration and population explosion of uk residents not set to slow down anytime soon, you cannot put the UHI effect down as an anomaly as its going to increase, there will be much wider areas with this within the next 1-200 years.

Eventually the UK will all be concrete sadly the numbers aren't sustainable. At some point the Urban Heat Island effect will be the standard unless the station is on an island in a huge lake.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 11.1c May 2019 shares the same mean CET with May's:

1734

1836

1903

1942

1958

1986

 

 

 

[snowray]

8 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Honestly don't get what these corrections are in aid of, another ridiculous one.

Agreed, I calculated quite a bit higher myself, never expected this much of a correction down.

[Optimus Prime]

17 hours ago, The PIT said:

Eventually the UK will all be concrete sadly the numbers aren't sustainable. At some point the Urban Heat Island effect will be the standard unless the station is on an island in a huge lake.

[Froze were the Days]

Strikes me the main reason why we've seen a comparatively cooler spring than last year or one's of recent years in layman's terms is the influence of heights far to the north which has affected the British Isles as opposed to the opposite and heights to the south and more continental type conditions which has been a regular occurrence. 

Interesting above post...if my location is anything to go I expect 'built on' to go through the roof in the next decade...'affordable' houses going up left right and centre, it's really sad to see farmland going this way and hypocritical of the government in relation to global warming.

Edited June 2, 2019 by Froze were the Days

[Roger J Smith]

Hadley EWP tracker has finalized at 45 mm. This may be adjusted with the published value around the 5th, but provisionally, these are the EWP scoring results:

For the month, top ten scores

Rank__Fcst ___error __ Forecaster _______ score

_01 __ 44 mm __ -1.0 __ davehsug _______ 10.0 pts

_02 __ 43 mm __ -2.0 __ Bobd29 _________ 9.8 pts

_03 __ 42 mm __ -3.0 __ Polar Gael _______9.6 pts

_04 __ 49 mm __ +4.0 __ EdStone ________ 9.3 pts

_05 __ 40 mm __ --5.0 __ DiagonalRedLine__9.1 pts

_06 __ 40 mm __ --5.0 __ The PIT _________9.0 pts (--0.1 for 2nd entry of 40 mm)

_07 __ 50 mm __ +5.0 __ daniel* __________8.9 pts (--0.2 for one day late, from 9.1)

_08 __ 52 mm __ +7.0 __ weather-history ___ 8.4 pts

_09 __ 52 mm __ +7.0 __ seaside 60 _______8.1 pts (--0.3 for day late, 2nd entry of 52 mm)

_10 __ 53 mm __ +8.0 __ JeffC ___________ 7.9 pts

________________________________________________________________

The provisional top five for spring 2019 are

1. Diagonal Red Line __25.6

2. Feb1991Blizzard ___ 24.3

3. daniel* ___________ 23.5

4. Reef _____________ 22.5

5. CheesepuffScott ____22.2

____________________________________________________________________

The current top five in the annual standings are

1. Reef ______________ 47.5

2. seaside 60 _________ 45.9

3. Born from the Void ___ 43.2

4. Feb1991Blizzard ____ 41.7

5. daniel* ____________ 41.5

_______________________________________________________________________

Best upward moves in May were +11 ranks for Bobd29, +10 for davehsug, +9 ranks for DRL, PIT and Polar Gael and +7 for EdStone.

All stats can be found in this excel file:

 

EWP20182019G.xlsx

[Derecho]

On 01/06/2019 at 15:19, feb1991blizzard said:

If a weather station reads 19c then its 19c, if it isn't then the weather station is in the wrong position (which i doubt a Met Office one would be), or if its malfunctioning and you cannot just guess what it should be reading so as to provide data, plus why is it always a downward correction?, i guess the only positive i suppose is at least we know they are not artificially inflating temps to make climate change look worse than it is.

I think for the CET series it has moved over several stations in its duration requires numerous adjustments to make its very long time series homogeneous. I can't remember the exact details but issues such as differences in the time of day the observations were recorded are also important.

As for concerns over the UHI effect that is a bit melodramatic especially when I think the CET nowadays is composed of temperature readings in small towns (I think Stonyhurst is one) and I think the table by optimus prime sums things up quite nicely in that regard!

Anyhow only 0.1C out for this month, still paranoid I estimated too low for June.... how many times have we seen a June run at average in the first half only to shoot up later. This week does look cool though.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think for the CET series it has moved over several stations in its duration requires numerous adjustments to make its very long time series homogeneous. I can't remember the exact details but issues such as differences in the time of day the observations were recorded are also important.

As for concerns over the UHI effect that is a bit melodramatic especially when I think the CET nowadays is composed of temperature readings in small towns (I think Stonyhurst is one) and I think the table by optimus prime sums things up quite nicely in that regard!

Anyhow only 0.1C out for this month, still paranoid I estimated too low for June.... how many times have we seen a June run at average in the first half only to shoot up later. This week does look cool though.

I keep going too high, unusual in this day and age. 0.1 out is a stonker, consistency of 0.5 degrees or less gives you a good shot, terrible CET so far for me, would need to win multiple monthlies now bang on the nose to win it and be close in all the others, having a stonker in EWP though.

[Derecho]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I keep going too high, unusual in this day and age. 0.1 out is a stonker, consistency of 0.5 degrees or less gives you a good shot, terrible CET so far for me, would need to win multiple monthlies now bang on the nose to win it and be close in all the others, having a stonker in EWP though.

I think a lot of people probably had the easter warm spell in their minds when making their prediction for May. Looking at the latest ECM I think another average month could be in store (the next 10 days are cool to very cool if that is right, so there would be a deficit to make up). May not be the most exciting weather but at least nights would be comfortable sleeping.

I do enjoy warm summer weather but I prefer it with low humidity unless there is a good thunderstorm.