May 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[DAVID SNOW]

A cool trend for the last week of May being touted, lets see if the models have this correct.

[Scorcher]

14 hours ago, snowray said:

Yes I was just looking at that, Aviemore 23c, hottest spot in the UK, wow! 

The CET zone has maxes widely of 19c, around Liverpool its got  up to 20c but I'm not sure if that's just out.

Stonyhurst in Lancashire which is one of the CET stations got to 21C yesterday

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 14th

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average

1.4 below the 80 to 10 average

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Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 06z GFS has us closing in on the 81-10 average as we enter the final week of the month, just 0.2C off by the 24th. 
An above average month is still well within the realm of possibility.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9.1C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall 31.2mm 54.1% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 15th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average

1.2 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

    

The models continue to support the idea of a continued warm up, now just 0.1C off the 81-10 rolling average by the 25th. Looking very much like the final week will decide if this month ends up below, above or close to average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.5C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall Unchanged. Temps should keep rising so should be close to average if not above by the end of the weekend.

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 16th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

1.1 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9.6C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall 31.8mm 55.1% of normal. So with little in the way of an actual cool down so far still comfortable above average by day and with milder nights kicking back up who knows where we will end up at. 

[Man With Beard]

20 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

9.9c to the 16th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

1.1 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

Cannot see this getting above 12C. It looks unlikely things will get in position to allow any southerly influence for any length of time before month's end. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.7C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall up to 32.3mm 56% of the average rainfall for the month. Today may actually be a cool day if we don't get any sun which bring a halt to the rise.

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Cannot see this getting above 12C. It looks unlikely things will get in position to allow any southerly influence for any length of time before month's end. 

Dunno ECM goes for a cooler feel than GFS which shows night time temperatures being a long way above normal on some days and still mild to very mild by day. If the GFS is correct we would end up around 11.6C then allowing for the general 0.8C difference between us and the CET zone that would put the CET zone above 12C.

[Summer Sun]

10.1c to the 17th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

0.9 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP tracker was 29mm after 16 days and so is probably at about 30 mm now. The model run shows another 30 mm (average for all regions of EWP) by 28th (15 west and northwest, to 50-60 southeast) and the GFS model shows some showery weather 29th-30th followed by a downpour on the 31st, so almost any guess above 60 mm seems to be in play if the first ten days proves generally accurate. 

My impression of the CET is similar to MWB above, can't see how it gets much past 11.0 at the rate things are going, no sustained warmth and the odd cooler day should keep it bottled up in the 10 to 11 range for quite some time and the end of the month looks rather chilly. We have only a small number of forecasts lower than 11.5 C. 

[Don]

I think my 12.5C looks to be out of the question now!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.8C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Sunny76]

On 18/05/2019 at 11:17, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 9.7C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall up to 32.3mm 56% of the average rainfall for the month. Today may actually be a cool day if we don't get any sun which bring a halt to the rise.

This May is looking like the poorest one for a long time, and with below average temps in the southern UK. The sunny spell between the 13th-16th was pleasant and warm in the sun, but the daytime high was still on the cool side, when you factor in wind and any cloud cover, which in turn affects the warmth. 

[Sunny76]

So, are we all in agreement, if the current weather pattern continues beyond mid June, a poor summer is more likely?

I can’t see another 2018 happening. 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

So, are we all in agreement, if the current weather pattern continues beyond mid June, a poor summer is more likely?

I can’t see another 2018 happening. 

That's about as informative as saying that, should it rain throughout next Tuesday, then next Tuesday will be wet, S76?

[Summer Sun]

10.2c to the 18th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

0.8 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

This May is looking like the poorest one for a long time, and with below average temps in the southern UK. The sunny spell between the 13th-16th was pleasant and warm in the sun, but the daytime high was still on the cool side, when you factor in wind and any cloud cover, which in turn affects the warmth. 

Mays been pretty good here and by the end of the day we'll be knocking on the average temperatures. Shows how people have been spoilt by the earlier out season weather we had earlier this spring. 

[SunnyDazee]

56 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Mays been pretty good here and by the end of the day we'll be knocking on the average temperatures. Shows how people have been spoilt by the earlier out season weather we had earlier this spring. 

I get what your saying, but isn’t that a bit of a oxymoron? Good but average? It’s been average, not good, not bad. Warm and sunny spells and cool, wet spells. The last bit I agree with, after our last few May’s it’s a big disappointment especially but it’s still not a bad May. I’d love a bit more sun and I’m hoping the last week comes up trumps but it’s not bad by no means, and the CET would be higher if it wasn’t for the chilly nights in the first half. 

[Summer Sun]

10.3c to the 19th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

0.8 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 10C -0.4C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.