Easter weekend temperature forecasting competition

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Don't quote me on that Heathrow thing, I looked it up and found it ultra-confusing, there used to be a smaller county of London, then a bigger greater London that swallowed up Middlesex and some parts of Surrey. Northolt also could be taken as Middlesex or greater London. I said Middlesex not even realizing that it wasn't considered to exist any more, and when I looked at the map, where I thought would be Middlesex is actually partly Hertfordshire or southeast Bucks. But Northolt and Heathrow often top out if isn't Gravesend or central London. 

I think the domesday  book  is the gold standard, and not the 'modern' day  (1965)  changes.

[Paul]

On 19/04/2019 at 00:16, Roger J Smith said:

This is a list of the entries that I see on the thread. I have copied verbatim the locations as the posters gave them, what they actually mean in terms of counties is up to Paul and/or the organizers. This is not contest official, just a free service from Kontestmann. (I do these in my sleep) ...

... note ... duplicate entries are shown in order of submission ... any comments about timing are reduced to very small print

Top temp ___ Forecaster _______ Predicted location (verbatim no edits by me except where showing a user location in one case, info underlined)

28.8 _______ leedsnowfan ______Northolt and Heathrow

28.2 _______ Roger J Smith _____in Middlesex

27.5 _______ Sizzling Heat ______on Bournemouth Beach

27.2 _______ Let It Snow! _______in Kent

27.2 _______ Emmett Garland ___Gravesend

27.1 _______ SunnyDazee ______ Kent (Gravesend)

26.6 _______ markwells ________ in Cambridgeshire on Monday

26.5 _______ Norrance _________ Surrey

26.5 _______ Polar Gael ________ London

26.4 _______ Candice __________ greater London

26.3 _______ mother nature rocks _at Heathrow

26.2 _______ Azazel ___________ Kew

26.2 _______ mikeofmacc _______ Kent

26.2 _______ Mark wheeler ______Northolt

26.2 _______ Matt Tarrant _______ Kew Gardens

26.1 _______ Rickoza67 ________ in Faversham.

26*________ Radiating Dendrite __ somewhere to the west of central London later this weekend early next.

25.9 _______ matty40s _________ Heathrow

25.8 _______ Stargazer _________ Heathrow

25.8 _______ Pembroke Dangler __ Flintshire

25.7 _______DiagonalRedLine ___ Manchester (5pm on Saturday)

25.7 _______ Ross Andrew Hemphill _in Kent

25.7 _______ DAVID SNOW ______ "my back garden" (user location Romford, Essex)

25.7 _______ Huntforsnow _______ Heathrow

25.7 _______ fromey ___________ St James park

25.6 _______ 38*5 C ___________ Northolt

25.3 _______ Dancerwithwings ___ Kent

25.3 _______ Gazbo ___________ Winsley Surrey

25.3 _______ Man with Beard ____ Heathrow (is that iMiddlesex or Berkshire?)

25.3 _______ Frosty hollows _____ Heathrow

25.2 _______ Ed Stone _________ in Kent

25.2 _______ wolvesman _______ Middlesex (Heathrow area)

25.2 _______ Earthshine _______ (no location given)

25.2 _______ Team Squirrel _____ West Sussex

25.2 _______ Summer of 95 _____ Porthmadog

25.2 _______ SteveB ___________Oxfordshire

25.1 _______ Leo97t ___________ in St James Park

25.1 _______ I Remember Atl 252 _Gravesend area, to be reached 3.30pm Sat 20th April

25.1 _______ Quicksilver 1989 ___ at Heathrow airport.

25.1 _______ cookie ___________ Yorkshire

25* ________ AnthonyMcquade7__ Cardiff on Saturday

24.9 _______ Paul1968 _________ Heathrow Airport

24.8 _______ laddie ____________ Oxfordshire

24.8 _______ Joneseye _________ Wisley

24.7 _______ CheesepuffScott ___ in Hampshire

24.7 _______ pinball wizard _____ Oxfordshire

24.6 _______ Mapantz __________South London

24.6 _______ smichling _________ Middlesex - Heathrow

24.4 _______ virtualsphere ______ Lincolnshire, Easter Monday

24.3 _______ DR(S)NO _________ London area

24.2 _______ Kirkcaldy Weather __ Hampshire

24.1 _______ Feb1991Blizzard ___ Richmond, Surrey

23.8 _______ Milhouse _________ Wiltshire

23.8 _______ DanBaynes _______ Gravesend

23.4 _______ Chris R. __________ at Porthmadog, gwynedd. 

23.4 _______ matt111 __________ North London

23.2 _______ Lauren ___________ in Kent

23.2 _______ Badgers01 ________ wisely

23.1 _______ Mike Poole ________ Surrey 

22.9 _______ Daniel* ___________ at Heathrow

21.7 _______ Another Kent clipper _ in Chelmsford

__ 61 entries, consensus (median value) 25.2 __

__________________________________________________

* no decimal given (26, Radiating Dendrite) .. (25, AnthonyMcquade7)

Top temperature yesterday was 24.2 at Gosport Fleetlands (Hampshire). So that's a few out of the running with @Kirkcaldy Weather currently winning, and getting the bonus prize too. 3 days still to go though  

[Bobd29]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

Top temperature yesterday was 24.2 at Gosport Fleetlands (Hampshire). So that's a few out of the running with @Kirkcaldy Weather currently winning, and getting the bonus prize too. 3 days still to go though  

My 26.7 Gloucestershire, posted Friday 10.04 if allowed.

[Paul]

Afraid it was too late @Bobd29 - cutoff was 23:59 on Thursday.

[snowray]

Awwww, missed out on this one too.

[CheesepuffScott]

Looks like an official 25.5°C in Hampshire this afternoon...!

[Dancerwithwings]

9 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Looks like an official 25.5°C in Hampshire this afternoon...!

And nobody had that forecast 

[Paul]

There'll likely be a different high temp by the morning, no all stations report in realtime.

[kold weather]

Certainly a chance that this the highest we will get this Easter, though a chance tomorrow does get to 26c. Monday looks just a tick less impressive but it won't be far off those figures.

[Paul]

On 19/04/2019 at 00:16, Roger J Smith said:

Top temp ___ Forecaster _______ Predicted location (verbatim no edits by me except where showing a user location in one case, info underlined)

28.8 _______ leedsnowfan ______Northolt and Heathrow

28.2 _______ Roger J Smith _____in Middlesex

27.5 _______ Sizzling Heat ______on Bournemouth Beach

27.2 _______ Let It Snow! _______in Kent

27.2 _______ Emmett Garland ___Gravesend

27.1 _______ SunnyDazee ______ Kent (Gravesend)

26.6 _______ markwells ________ in Cambridgeshire on Monday

26.5 _______ Norrance _________ Surrey

26.5 _______ Polar Gael ________ London

26.4 _______ Candice __________ greater London

26.3 _______ mother nature rocks _at Heathrow

26.2 _______ Azazel ___________ Kew

26.2 _______ mikeofmacc _______ Kent

26.2 _______ Mark wheeler ______Northolt

26.2 _______ Matt Tarrant _______ Kew Gardens

26.1 _______ Rickoza67 ________ in Faversham.

26*________ Radiating Dendrite __ somewhere to the west of central London later this weekend early next.

25.9 _______ matty40s _________ Heathrow

25.8 _______ Stargazer _________ Heathrow

25.8 _______ Pembroke Dangler __ Flintshire

25.7 _______DiagonalRedLine ___ Manchester (5pm on Saturday)

25.7 _______ Ross Andrew Hemphill _in Kent

25.7 _______ DAVID SNOW ______ "my back garden" (user location Romford, Essex)

25.7 _______ Huntforsnow _______ Heathrow

25.7 _______ fromey ___________ St James park

25.6 _______ 38*5 C ___________ Northolt

25.3 _______ Dancerwithwings ___ Kent

25.3 _______ Gazbo ___________ Winsley Surrey

25.3 _______ Man with Beard ____ Heathrow (is that iMiddlesex or Berkshire?)

25.3 _______ Frosty hollows _____ Heathrow

25.2 _______ Ed Stone _________ in Kent

25.2 _______ wolvesman _______ Middlesex (Heathrow area)

25.2 _______ Earthshine _______ (no location given)

25.2 _______ Team Squirrel _____ West Sussex

25.2 _______ Summer of 95 _____ Porthmadog

25.2 _______ SteveB ___________Oxfordshire

25.1 _______ Leo97t ___________ in St James Park

25.1 _______ I Remember Atl 252 _Gravesend area, to be reached 3.30pm Sat 20th April

25.1 _______ Quicksilver 1989 ___ at Heathrow airport.

25.1 _______ cookie ___________ Yorkshire

25* ________ AnthonyMcquade7__ Cardiff on Saturday

24.9 _______ Paul1968 _________ Heathrow Airport

24.8 _______ laddie ____________ Oxfordshire

24.8 _______ Joneseye _________ Wisley

24.7 _______ CheesepuffScott ___ in Hampshire

24.7 _______ pinball wizard _____ Oxfordshire

24.6 _______ Mapantz __________South London

24.6 _______ smichling _________ Middlesex - Heathrow

24.4 _______ virtualsphere ______ Lincolnshire, Easter Monday

24.3 _______ DR(S)NO _________ London area

24.2 _______ Kirkcaldy Weather __ Hampshire

24.1 _______ Feb1991Blizzard ___ Richmond, Surrey

23.8 _______ Milhouse _________ Wiltshire

23.8 _______ DanBaynes _______ Gravesend

23.4 _______ Chris R. __________ at Porthmadog, gwynedd. 

23.4 _______ matt111 __________ North London

23.2 _______ Lauren ___________ in Kent

23.2 _______ Badgers01 ________ wisely

23.1 _______ Mike Poole ________ Surrey 

22.9 _______ Daniel* ___________ at Heathrow

21.7 _______ Another Kent clipper _ in Chelmsford

 

__ 61 entries, consensus (median value) 25.2 __

__________________________________________________

* no decimal given (26, Radiating Dendrite) .. (25, AnthonyMcquade7)

Gosport Fleetlands won the day again yesterday, with a max of 25.5c. That means @Kirkcaldy Weather is off the top spot and eliminated. The current leader is @38.5*C with a guess of 25.6c. 

Today is going to be close, can we squeeze a bit warmer, or will Saturday be the peak?

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/daily-top-20/maxt

 

[snowray]

I think somewhere around London will get the high today, temps over towards Hamps are a degree or so lower than yesterday at 2pm.

25-26c likely somewhere like Heathrow, St James Park, Kew, or Hampton W W.

[DaveL]

New forum member here, old Netweather and (very old) uk.sci.weather subscriber though.  Interesting thread, wish I'd seen it earlier as my back garden VP2 beat Fleetlands Gosport yesterday, at 25.9 though half a degree on the high side is likely in the sunhine. I am a few miles further in from the Solent than Fleetlands.

BBC reports that the current record for both Easter Sunday and Monday is held by "Solent" which is of course the defunct Solent MRSC - at the other end of Gosport from  Fleetlands so in the forecast conditions I'd have gone for Fleetlands or my back garden - but would have been too low on temperature.

Fleetlands (like Hurn, and Solent MRSC before it) will be the one to watch whenever there's a lightish anticyclonic NNW to ENE wind with bright sunshine. Winds veered more to the SE today though so that's the end of that, here, for the moment anyway. Peaked at 24.7 early this afternoon in my garden - maybe half a degree on the high side again (VP2 screen effect) so a 24.2 max would be close to several stations between here and London, Otterbourne, Middle Wallop for example, with Heathrow or Northolt favourite. I can't see anywhere beating Fleetlands' 25.5 today or tomorrow.

[Paul]

24.6c was the high yesterday (london Heathrow), so we're still in the same position in the competition with @38.5*C leading the way. Doesn't look especially likely we'll be bettering 25.5c today, but you never know!

[DaveL]

The Easter Monday record will probably go though, BBC/Met Office says 24.0 deg C,  at Solent MRSC in 2011. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47996418

Incidentally, yesterday the BBC News website incorrectly reported here the hottest ever Easter Sunday as 25.3 at St. James's Park - it was in fact Solent MRSC again, the 25.3 is correct, as in the above link reported the day before, which they got right. I sent in a correction, but have no idea if they will even read it.

 

Edited April 22, 2019 by DaveL

[snowray]

That 25.3c was being reported in some newspaper/internet sources yesterday.

[smichling]

My prediction was 24.6 in Heathrow! Unfortunately I was beaten today and Saturday but I’m amazed I got temp and location for one day at least! 

[Paul]

2 hours ago, DaveL said:

The Easter Monday record will probably go though, BBC/Met Office says 24.0 deg C,  at Solent MRSC in 2011. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47996418

Incidentally, yesterday the BBC News website incorrectly reported here the hottest ever Easter Sunday as 25.3 at St. James's Park - it was in fact Solent MRSC again, the 25.3 is correct, as in the above link reported the day before, which they got right. I sent in a correction, but have no idea if they will even read it.

 

The 25.3 wasn't official I don't think, perhaps failed qc for some reason, as the Met Office aren't showing it on their extremes feed. 

[Summer Sun]

Met office confirm 25.0c

 

 

 

Edited April 22, 2019 by Summer Sun

[DaveL]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

The 25.3 wasn't official I don't think, perhaps failed qc for some reason, as the Met Office aren't showing it on their extremes feed. 

That's odd as they quoted it in their own press release, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/easter-weather. Oh well.

But it certainly wasn't St James' Park in 2011 (for Easter Sunday), as according to Ogimet, its 23.9 max was exceeded by Herstmonceux, Thorney Island, Shoreham Airport and Gravesend Broadness all between 24.1 and 24.4, as well as that Solent provisional 25.3. The BBC may have confused it with Good Friday 2011, when St. James's Park was top with 26.9. I'm not trying to be difficult, honest!

Lots of records broken though, this Easter!

[Paul]

The high yesterday was 25c at Northolt, so an amazing weekend for late April really, and plenty of Easter records biting the dust.

@38.5*C is the competition winner, with a guess just .1c away from the highest temperature across the weekend, congratulations! (I'll be in touch via pm a bit later so we can arrange your prize). 

Thanks to everyone who took part, we should do this sort of thing more often  

[Sunny76]

I find the reports about it being the warmest Easter a load of tosh. I remember Easter 2011(which fell at the same time as this year, to be much warmer). I’m sure I recall temps of 27-28 at some point over the Easter period, and thunderstorms. 

Easter 84 and 87 were probably just as warm as this past weekend. 

[Paul]

It's a bit of a fudge. It's not been the hottest easter ever, but was the hottest easter sunday (in places) and easter monday ever (just about everywhere). 

[Man With Beard]

On 23/04/2019 at 08:10, Paul said:

The high yesterday was 25c at Northolt, so an amazing weekend for late April really, and plenty of Easter records biting the dust.

@38.5*C is the competition winner, with a guess just .1c away from the highest temperature across the weekend, congratulations! (I'll be in touch via pm a bit later so we can arrange your prize). 

Thanks to everyone who took part, we should do this sort of thing more often  

Absolutely agree. I'd love a comp like this during a heatwave over 90F

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

@Paul maybe some similar competitions during named storms like the upcoming storm Hannah where each entrant guesses the highest wind gust during the storm and the location? 

[Paul]

On 25/04/2019 at 13:08, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@Paul maybe some similar competitions during named storms like the upcoming storm Hannah where each entrant guesses the highest wind gust during the storm and the location? 

Yep, bit late for this one, but definitely a good idea