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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

But we must be careful, and not rely too much on 'background signals'...?:gathering:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The ukmo 12h is still showing an Easterly and it does become colder with an increasing risk of night frosts and max temps between 7-10c, a little lower in scotland but by friday the atlantic and it's associated milder air is waiting in the wings and the easterly is on its last legs..all very tame because it's april.

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

giphy (1).gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Will it, or won't it? The milder air win, at the first attempt, I mean...Or will next Saturday be as horrible as today has been?

image.thumb.png.edc3bd5c073d0131283c5fde85129577.pngimage.thumb.png.6a0372e55841ccff15a3fa48aabd67b3.png 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational max temps next week, nothing  lurking in the woodshed to cause any concern..apart from the odd spider or fly, indeed, it's milder than the 6z by at least a couple of degrees, closer to 10-13c across southern uk and much higher than that next monday when parts of the s / e could hit 18 / 19c.

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'll have some warm-and-humid next Saturday? I like warm and humid!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.2514862ccad933f53175c245945957b2.pngimage.thumb.png.a270b2277ffcbe8a48e4a6cb8604c81f.png 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Yes Ed, much warmer by next weekend into following week with tropical maritime air covering the uk, some rain but warmer rain!!!!

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12_183_ukthickness850.png

12_195_mslp850.png

12_195_uk2mtmp.png

12_222_uk2mtmp.png

12_222_precipratec.png

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Yep, the virtual easterly that only exists inside a computer is now struggling.. a familiar story for coldies but in April I don't care!

Still confident this E'ly will come off, hope models don't flip tomorrow to E'ly

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

A much better run: much warmer, much sooner...I'm thinking that that heat build-up, way down sarf, will set us up for a plumetastic summer?⚡:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.dd1df53c8d61cb8c0d2cd8e445025ae3.pngimage.thumb.png.5e68c874065f6d21f6ef705bbfd0cd1f.png 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

There's some support from the GEFS 12z for the warmer more humid tropical maritime airflow that the operational shows next weekend into the following week.

GFSP05EU12_192_2.png

GFSP12EU12_192_2.png

GFSP13EU12_192_2.png

GFSP18EU12_192_2.png

GFSP20EU12_192_2.png

GFSP20EU12_210_2.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Some interesting warm ups from gfs 12z, especially beyond day 7...some significant warming upper air tantalisingly close! Who's ready for summer then folks!!! 

gfs-1-180.png

gfs-1-288 (1).png

best-funny-quotes-monday-funny-captions-105758-am-monday-07-november-2016-pst-64-pics.jpg

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Yes please!!!!!

6_366_850tmp.png

6_366_2mtmpmax.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

FV3 12z a tad slower in the evolution towards the warm scenario, but gets there in the end, T240, T300, T348:

image.thumb.jpg.92619b66aba1959d8b5acffd6d1a8aeb.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.fd48b6a33eb0948654585fd7fac8d045.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.00443f9ef144da3c4041bdc12dff6de7.jpg

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Yes as Mike said the 12z parallel gets there, nice charts at the end, especially for southern uk.

GFSPARAEU12_384_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_2.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_17.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_5.png

GFSPARANH12_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

GEFS 12Z ensemble also headed in the preferred direction; there are a few stonkers, at the back-end, too:

 

image.thumb.png.3ed72dea24163632367f8b0cf69c93b6.png

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

decent EC at 144, Dec to Feb style, with the Atlantic winning out, but in April is the much preferred option, under sunny skies, can be 20 degrees in lucky areas

ECM1-144.GIF?06-0

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM going the fast forward route to warm as per the ICON, here at T168:

image.thumb.jpg.a3847b5a59bd55eaeeb4ec2395323f53.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.24428edfd0d89450880eea07b096a7dd.jpg

For me, this is now the most likely scenario.  We'll see!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

decent EC at 144, Dec to Feb style, with the Atlantic winning out, but in April is the much preferred option, under sunny skies, can be 20 degrees in lucky areas

ECM1-144.GIF?06-0

An easterly downgrade, who would have imagined that eh coldies..but it's for April 12th so meh whatever

fat_lady_sings-e1475261073402.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and gals.... Its been a long time coming, but I'm now glad to announce.... 

ITS PLUME Time!!! 

 

Looks a bit like a dog as well... Errrr shaggy!!!!! 

. 

ECM0-192.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and gals.... Its been a long time coming, but I'm now glad to announce.... 

ITS PLUME Time!!! 

 

 

. 

ECM0-192.gif

Indeed. Anyone else see Scooby Doo in that chart?

Obviously Matt does, in retrospect!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Indeed. Anyone else see Scooby Doo in that chart?

Yes but scrappy doo is missing!:shok:

Anyway..easterly downgraded to almost nothing..what's new?..signs of warmer not too far away.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
Just now, Frosty. said:

Yes but scrappy doo is missing!:shok:

Anyway..easterly downgraded to almost nothing..what's new?..signs of warmer not too far away.

Yep, I noticed the UKMO also slowly backing away, you can see the warmer air on the way by 144hrs!

UW144-7.gif

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yep, I noticed the UKMO also slowly backing away, you can see the warmer air on the way by 144hrs!

UW144-7.gif

In winter I would cry but now I'll just lmao

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

April to June style EC 12Z, the Atlantic fails to properly break through, can see this being close to the actual result, locations like mine on this run would struggle with sea fret, stuck at 8 degrees, while NW England/Scotland, Ireland/Wales having cloudless skies and 20 degrees, a very normal April to June setup

ECM1-216.GIF?06-0ECM1-240.GIF?06-0

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

JMA 12z overdoing the warm air advection somewhat in my opinion, here t192:

image.thumb.jpg.b40d266078ed6c3c5bc0887c13660758.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.9e1a019283e4a90921afab1c3a3b0b37.jpg

But I think the trend now looks clear for something from a more southerly direction just before Easter weekend...and for how long after??

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