Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[mb018538]

In the short term things look pretty poor....big Greenland and Arctic high setting up into next week. Southerly tracking jet. Cool and unsettled the order of the day for a little while....

[Frosty.]

I think this qualifies as unsettled!

[knocker]

Just for clarity is the OED definition of unsettled  in play here or the MOD thread glossary?

Edited April 30, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

I think I'm right in saying the Gem 12z ends a little better than the Ecm.

Edited April 30, 2019 by Frosty.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think I'm right in saying the Gem 12z ends a little better than the Ecm.

Not if you like storms! 

[Frosty.]

Looking on the bright side, tonight's  Ecm 12z ensemble mean doesn't look quite as bad as the op at the end but they are both unsettled.

Edited April 30, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z mean just highlights the uncertainty for me, I cannot make my mind up which of the T216 or T240 charts reminds me more of a White Walker zombie version of Scrappy Doo:

Edited April 30, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

53 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

In the short term things look pretty poor....big Greenland and Arctic high setting up into next week. Southerly tracking jet. Cool and unsettled the order of the day for a little while....

Good. Let’s get the crud out of the way in May before the summer starts.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening Folks!!! Stong Northern Blocking refuses to give up in the next 10 days! The Artic blast late this week may become very Memorable IE record cold frosts, Will be looking at the overnight temps with interest. Thunderstorms will be an issue too over the next ten days, some folks getting a big soaking and above average rain, other folks getting zilch , probably a theme for most of May.... Just Normal for Northern Blocking at this time of year

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening Folks!!! Stong Northern Blocking refuses to give up in the next 10 days! The Artic blast late this week may become very Memorable IE record cold frosts, Will be looking at the overnight temps with interest. Thunderstorms will be an issue too over the next ten days, some folks getting a big soaking and above average rain, other folks getting zilch , probably a theme for most of May.... Just Normal for Northern Blocking at this time of year

Well, it's going to have to go some, if it's going to anywhere near the cold spell of late May/early June 1975!

[knocker]

A quick glance at the change in the EPS mean anomalies over three days gives a good idea how the pattern changed. In the medium term we now have very strong amplification over Europe with the east European ridge and the vortex/trough dropping south through Scandinavia, This initially created a path for CAA to track south as far west as the UK (just) but particularly flooding western Europe  But as can be seen this has been superseded by the east bound energy crossing the Atlantic under the high cell in the Labrador Straits, thus opening a gateway for troughs to cross the UK. But there is a lot of cold air around so temps still below average by a tidy bit

[Mike Poole]

31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, it's going to have to go some, if it's going to anywhere near the cold spell of late May/early June 1975!

Yes, that was something special, and I just about sort of remember it (I was 4), here's the charts:

Must have been marginal, but marginal can of course happen.

Edited April 30, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Northernlights]

38 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, it's going to have to go some, if it's going to anywhere near the cold spell of late May/early June 1975!

Yes on the fourth floor of the agri building in King Street Aberdeen doing animal husbandry exam watching snow showers roll in off the North Sea on 1st of June.Two weeks later at home making super hay at 28c and it carried on the whole summer.    Harvest finished by second week of August only to be  matched again by 1976 2003 and 2018

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Yes on the fourth floor of the agri building in King Street Aberdeen doing animal husbandry exam watching snow showers roll in off the North Sea on 1st of June.Two weeks later at home making super hay at 28c and it carried on the whole summer.    Harvest finished by second week of August only to be  matched again by 1976 2003 and 2018

I wouldn't be all that surprised, were a similar 'quick switch' happen this year, NL, as I think the ingredients are all there: unusually cold air away to the north and northeast and a large blob of 20C+ uppers building over Europe...?

May come to nowt, of course -- but who knows?

[damianslaw]

Models trending towards major northern blocking signal now, and colder than normal synoptics, into next week trough moving underneath the block placing the UK on the cold side - still fine margins, so jury is out whether it ends up cold and unsettled or something milder. Watch developments over the weekend, heights elongating through the west side of the UK, maintaining a cold flow, with heights retrogressing NW.. no warmth on offer at all, indeed decidedly chilly for May.

[BlueHedgehog074]

With the arrival of May, it's probably worth unleashing a new Model thread. Will lock this quite shortly.

Edit: The padlock is on.  New model thread:

 

Edited May 1, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine