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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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Outlook looking less than inspiring this morning....a slow transition into a cool bank holiday weekend after what looked like a very warm one a couple of days back.....followed by a dose of low pressure off the Atlantic. Time to go into hiding for a few days i reckon!

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A distinct chill in the air by the end of this week with temps struggling to making it into double figures for some

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.168f24a0648687fda18976b612b84c2e.png1155760845_ukmaxtemp(1).thumb.png.0f63261b45f972746ca01c8b2513e97f.png

A bit milder Sunday and Monday but remaining chilly for Scotland and nowhere near as warm as the easter weekend

776866100_ukmaxtemp(2).thumb.png.bce4c3b0d55820c5a1fde7cc95a2a5a1.png1831524946_ukmaxtemp(3).thumb.png.cc849676e3000f156729422282c6bc56.png

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Posted (edited)

In the ext period of the EPS the pattern predictably becomes less amplified and a more westerly zonal flow develops which is relatively benign in the eastern Atlantic as it diverges somewhat, courtesy of the ridge in eastern Europe  and  a trough in the south east. So nothing nasty lurking in the woodshed with temps around average, perhaps a tad below. Last night's NOAA pretty much in the same ball park

9-14.thumb.png.806774d1c322b830d9b4ea0b0136823e.png814day_03.thumb.gif.a627f35fadc6413465818a704549ae89.gif

Edited by knocker

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Plenty of cack around, these next two weeks, but the 00Z offers the chance of some salvation::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.a92b3cf593a63a6484fe336359195361.pngimage.thumb.png.0e602a0f482d2e20df34692a096e9f52.png 

Which is backed-up by the ensembles. If it's rain you're after, look away now!

image.thumb.png.4ad8a50bb8e17ca73065d6b08e408688.pngimage.thumb.png.8a3d3a7914f8994709f6709986d45738.png 

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The ukmo 00z shows an arctic blast..yes in May!:crazy:

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Here comes the Arctic..yes you heard me correctly!👍:cold:

EDM1-96.GIF

EDM0-96.GIF

EDM1-120.GIF

EDM0-120.GIF

EDM0-144.GIF

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22 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Here comes the Arctic..yes you heard me correctly!👍:cold:

EDM1-96.GIF

EDM0-96.GIF

EDM1-120.GIF

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Right enough...But, after a weekend that's almost too horrible for words, the only way is up!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.2261c53d018541cad90a9b222c337503.pngimage.thumb.png.3f507182bf812c228f591812507ec6a8.png :oldgood:

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Just what's needed after the arctic, a nice plume on the 6z:gathering:

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Well, at least the FV3 puts the rain in the right place!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.0336a392d01ca1d606676c6ff2600644.pngimage.thumb.png.e0f10efd56b16f984f35dcf3b276b2a3.png :shok:

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Posted (edited)

Ever get the feeling we're being targeted?:unknw:

image.thumb.png.648e0a4d092b54980880be784f1549e1.pngimage.thumb.png.4cebbfdd201274733d0ead7efab86714.png 

Interesting?image.thumb.png.6f37404ad44aacb2894b93a8dfaf6a9b.pngimage.thumb.png.b2b0dff5469fd189dc5dac2990872cfc.png

 

 

Edited by Ed Stone

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We waited all winter for a chart like this to show up and then finally it shows up right at the exact moment we don't want it, a bank holiday weekend!

WHY.thumb.png.e542fe6d69ce61e36e0455149b92674b.png

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Longer term there is considerable improvement on the GEFS 6z mean 👍

GFSAVGEU06_300_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_324_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_360_1.png

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The GEFS 6z mean shorter term shows arctic air digging south later this week which is gradually cut off from the west as high pressure / ridging builds in during the weekend and sticks around further s / se into next week with temperatures gradually recovering.

GFSAVGEU06_84_1.png

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GFSAVGEU06_132_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_156_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

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06Z ensembles could be worse...

image.thumb.png.8fbae8a9709ae29f5e1174719de762e0.pngimage.thumb.png.c02b6099bbff852f326f5e3cc70aed38.png 

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looks pretty grim here right out until Mid May..cold and unsettled:snowman-emoji:..this is why Spring is my least Favourite season here 😥

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A perfect winter chart in May-

High probability of seeing snow in Scotland & over the york Moors

B199930A-DBE4-4692-82FD-EE1646D4949F.thumb.png.fa09d1a1878bf2870e437aae614ce75b.png

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A perfect winter chart in May-

High probability of seeing snow in Scotland & over the york Moors

B199930A-DBE4-4692-82FD-EE1646D4949F.thumb.png.fa09d1a1878bf2870e437aae614ce75b.png

Not like we didn’t see these all throughout winter, however, I’m sure the difference now will be that this one actually makes it to t0.

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Posted (edited)

Been sat here six months waiting for this Northerly!!!!!!!!  ..my health has really suffered.😜

UW96-21.gif

UW96-7.gif

UW120-21.gif

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UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

skeleton-at-keyboard.jpg

Edited by Frosty.

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16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Been sat here six months waiting for this Northerly!!!!!!!!  ..my health has really suffered.😜

UW96-21.gif

UW96-7.gif

UW120-21.gif

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And, by golly, you can keep it! 🤣Meanwhile, something better might be brewing?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.0de58c4139602f1df923cd89465d1d12.pngimage.thumb.png.b66df3e2a409d0deb9ada213a4a5d778.png 

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Crap! image.thumb.png.68fb64a20044724525d34b0c13dc899d.pngCrap! image.thumb.png.72b24c98ff33adc7d2aa1102d101a455.png 

Crap! image.thumb.png.e605c1c906d6a7e6574ef10c757ff7b1.png Said Victor Meldrew!:shok:

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On the subject of potential heat it is worth saying that people were being a gung ho with timing and atmospheric sensitivity but it is coming. As the chart below indicates another standing wave will set up in the west Pacific in the next few days amplifying the jet stream such that (allowing for lag) we are likely to see pressure build at mid to high latitudes from the middle third. 

spacer.png 

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Posted (edited)

Longer term the GEFS 12z mean / majority of perturbations looks much better in terms of settled and warm, perhaps very warm potential with lots of high pressure.🌞

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

Day 16 is much better...lower pressure, generally, in the area where the Aussie Elvis lives!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.864b6df77d91e5392f109945cab7d62c.pngimage.thumb.png.b0cb2264b2de982b5a1f1bd323d23cd5.png :oldgood:

12Z GEFS ensembles: image.thumb.png.32497b229cc0cad93f5732649995482c.png image.thumb.png.a0062a0178eb28cac611a636a70fbea6.png

 

Edited by Ed Stone

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Posted (edited)

The Ecm 12z warms up and settles down, especially further s / se  beyond the cold Northerly later this week when there could be some widespread frosts for a time..towards the end it trends unsettled from the west but at day 10 reading between the lines there are hints that a ridge would build in after the trough moves away.

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240_mslp500 (1).png

Edited by Frosty.

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