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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not making this up, the longer term GEFS 12z is a crud fest, plenty of very cool and unsettled charts towards mid may.

These outputs are in a right mess aren’t they lol. Literally opposites being forecasted in some

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not making this up, the longer term GEFS 12z is a crud fest, plenty of very cool and unsettled charts towards mid may.

Here's the sorry looking mean.

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_2.png

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Fag end of the FV3 isn't great, either:image.thumb.png.8071a6f99ad8b990f0f12e78a7d90bd5.png                                                                                                             image.thumb.png.62450a472049bf9ea4b93a60a8241926.png

The GEFS 12Z ensemble looks a little better than I had feared:image.thumb.png.de8aceee542b039d12f46c5a43c3b239.png

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Posted (edited)

The Gfs / Gefs keep threatening arctic outbreaks this spring but always in low res, they never survive into high res..since it's nearly may, I hope that form continues!!!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

Thar she blows..   Storm Hannah I mean!:shok:😜

Temperatures also look very depressed on saturday.

ukgust.png

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ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

Edited by Frosty.

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I think the medium term evolution is now starting to take shape and it isn't going to be prolonged heights over Greenland.  ECM 12z last four frames:

image.thumb.jpg.08233512494b4780e1b1f00fc494f0af.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a2d0ada9fe397898aa3c2692cf58dee8.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.0f8253dca7a5ce8ec47e822d30b59d8e.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8331bc6f9ff48c96eabc1c3d6f688d9a.jpg

Which puts us in a much better position for jet stream north of UK allowing the build of high pressure in UK vicinity going forward.

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Posted (edited)

I'm going to be careful what I say about the Ecm 12z operational after last evening but I will say this..it ends well...for southern / southeastern uk!!😁:oldgood:

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500 (1).png

240_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

The EPS at the same time frame as an earlier post from the gfs output is quite similar

t144an.thumb.png.946ae6e06393876ad585ecfd5c90c2a3.pngt144.thumb.png.d53a0f88e8c2bcc3d4d2f9a12424d795.png

And as we move forward and the Greenland block starts to weaken and the displaced vortex lobe starts to dominate the western Atlantic the subtropical high is freer to ridge north in the vicinity of the UK. Aided and abetted by the vortex and trough Franz Joseph/Scandinavia. So after a rather indeterminate period high pressure may become more influential.( I started to use different terminology there but I gave myself a slap and said, 'get a bloody grip knocker)

5-10.thumb.png.96804196264a938b26eb7f84e0009971.png

Looking into the later period the words 'beginning to dominate  the western Atlantic' may have been prophetic

index.thumb.png.a23e8149134a0ccfe98a41ca3bfc979b.png

Edited by knocker

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks generally benign once Storm Hannah has blown through, pressure rises but not enough to stop the risk of showers continuing although there would be plenty of fine weather around..there is then a suggestion of a very blink or miss it Northerly followed by an increasingly decent day 9 / 10 at least across southern uk..some chilly nights too where skies clear but feeling pleasant in the strong late spring sunshine.

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

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Posted (edited)

ECM mean looking really great for the high pressure warm scenario, more so than last night, here T216, T240, notice how the (average) heights over Greenland are cut off between these two charts:

image.thumb.jpg.ecb2abcae0841a17b8b6f60bccdd8932.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b2d18752109aa7943e8505a150e82a3b.jpg

AAM charts from CFS continue to look promising, here:

image.thumb.jpg.1ac09ce0ed225c0072b58ec85b785d54.jpg

Suggests to me another warm spell about the bank holiday weekend then a resurgence of low pressures for a while before rinse and repeat.   @Tamara put it so much better in her earlier post, me, I kind of like to try to boil things down to the gist, this is what I think it is....warm and settled bank holiday weekend, trending unsettled after, then warm and settled....we will see. 

Edited by Mike Poole

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Over the next 36 hours it will be wet and very windy over the southern half of the UK. But it will be quickly followed by a far more quiescent period which can be simplistically illustrated by three snapshots of the 500mb profile within the five day period.

2128329984_gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-62368001.thumb.png.2ec3d2cbbc9d1a94ed5364dd2c3b325f.png1937063222_gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-64528002.thumb.png.c2d402fc67f32b9c70b9e3254c211088.png1271179541_gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-66688003.thumb.png.d3d74318071d440f263235c900796a0d.png

Meanwhile the Atlantic surface analysis at midnight

PPVA89.thumb.gif.086aa3be5dba98907b82371c59609eb8.gif

As can be seen Storm Hannah is at 25W and is tracking east to be over Ireland by 1800, As a preliminary event the occlusion associated with another system is already bringing showery rain to the south west and this will track north east during the day to be over southern Scotland by 1800. And by that time rain from the frontal system associated with Hannah will be effecting N. Ireland, west Wales and the south west of England. Temps for a change better along the eastern region of England

PPVE89.thumb.gif.1d4ef34b691f405b9f12fba5d3f94720.gifp18.thumb.png.84486f1e614d2598819ebc22cd8ee911.png418970138_maxfr.thumb.png.bea4acfd8ba4f7d8fcbb4f70f1a2aec1.png

As the low tracks across the Irish Sea and the north of England during the night the band of showery rain will move north east, followed by showers, but a region of more persistent rain will effect north Wales and the north west by dawn, associated with the bent back occlusion.But the key feature here is the wind which will pick up rapidly with severe gales along south western and southern coastal regions, particularly the west coast of Wales.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.af174ca43f992ce0ad88e40c4ddfdc22.gifp00.thumb.png.b563695d7aedb2521d746f89905b1052.pngp06.thumb.png.5661b4c779230a536591f223d24d64a2.png

w22.thumb.png.516cf03d166dc14cc73e03008a2649e3.pngw01.thumb.png.e0019cc6596cc9977760e3dd029e3a08.pngw04.thumb.png.57e6c244cbad9cddcf900369b96810a2.pngw07.thumb.png.4c5ce4f4dd2c14072830f11aaae9b855.png

Hannah will track into the North Sea during Saturday but the band of rain associated with the occlusion will continue to effect northern, central and eastern regions of England  during the day. It will also still be quite windy in south west and southern regions with blustery showers. Quite a cold day as well

PPVI89.thumb.gif.50963377a54d45f3bb46e641fdb3ff06.gif1718165200_maxsat.thumb.png.4878efbfd5f1576e598ea54806a1905b.pngr09.thumb.png.2765177a89b33ac5786dfc11f873dbec.pngr12.thumb.png.1d823f7319cef00ece4b68e409721e62.pngr15.thumb.png.f90f4e897bf3ec559ea278abc5c6cee3.pngr18.thumb.png.7b8e4ddb8e011b774d699bae97fc9f79.png

With Hannah out of the way a very fleeting transient ridge builds on Sunday but some patchy rain will effect western regions as a warm front associated with low in the central Atlantic nudges in A warmer day all round

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.50b2528cb424b6b99f0dd075a0b60ad7.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.bd9f6a1363e30cd25437ea597094a27f.gif

679498006_sun18.thumb.png.b1a555f2897824a20c2ea34dc6c12c5b.png1406715827_maxsun.thumb.png.1694ad7f8ca0daaace641f3849dfdda5.png

Over Monday and Tuesday the pattern changes illustrated at the beginning are taking place with the UK in a very slack gradient resulting in a couple of days  of sunny intervals and broken cloud but some rain may infiltrate the west from trailing fronts. And a much warmer couple of days

PPVM89.thumb.gif.ac2262c2087d77a102fe8af94346d959.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.90028e5f8068710d09936751de1d0a09.gif

1856470638_maxmon.thumb.png.5c56753af6da1bf5ca4b9967b36e1b1c.png28143318_maxtues.thumb.png.5d7f33e742317eaa6fd5f51e084a585c.png

 

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Posted (edited)

So how does this continue to pan out. Little change on Weds

496418605_euw.thumb.png.7a483cdf91c16968610edc5e2e10553c.png

But develops are taking place upstream on Thursday with the latest ejection from the vortex/trough over N. America is gaining a lot of traction in the western Atlantic and downstream more general showery rain over the UK

22996963_nhth.thumb.png.21558340dd5980a30905c78b894d9afa.png1747755832_euthurs.thumb.png.dbdd69bf9bc85e2bfc7752bafa1197ce.png

By Friday the development upstream continues which facilitates the amplification of the subtropical high just to the west of the UK

1355312225_nhfr.thumb.png.bf32037953765b313cd424fc96532b84.png

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

The ecm has a shallow low crossing the country during the latter half of next week which phases with the major trough to the north east thus the wind veers and a sunny intervals and showery regime ensues And this would introduce much colder with temps below average Just to reiterate - the detail for next week is far from a done deal

wed.thumb.png.9c5c79f23a7588262e2b09588896f70b.pngth.thumb.png.cabcd76862e0207e3849f95e23b003fd.pngfr.thumb.png.c23d0e0f2aa6b1954eab89ea4d1dcf9b.png

 

Edited by knocker

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The latest (00Z) temperature ensemble shows a warm-up come early May; but, the op shifting to the warm end of the pack exaggerates the visual effect:

image.thumb.png.3ca23af77f14f4491db4b65b0477059c.pngimage.thumb.png.a497c3a4effaed7cdb2c823c510b3d51.png   

And the improving temps coincide nicely with an anticipated rise in SLP, for the SE.

 

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

The latest (00Z) temperature ensemble shows a warm-up come early May; but, the op shifting to the warm end of the pack exaggerates the visual effect:

image.thumb.png.3ca23af77f14f4491db4b65b0477059c.pngimage.thumb.png.a497c3a4effaed7cdb2c823c510b3d51.png   

And the improving temps coincide nicely with an anticipated rise in SLP, for the SE.

 

The orange line on the sea level pressure ensemble though. Let’s not be hoping for that I’ve put my winter coat away now 😂

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Good morning! If you want a return to warmth then look away now, even though there is a high level of Shannon entropy from the models a trend is a continuation of the rather chilly ,convective weather to go on into early May, another note is frost could turn up anywhere given any lengthy clear spells overnight  so gardeners beware! 

h850t850eu-6.png

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Some signs of improvement beyond day 10 with high pressure largely in control and temps recovering. I'm not having this Ntly lark now, they rarely trouble us or cause to many probs in winter let alone May! And tbh they tend to blow themselves out after a couple of days anyway.. Cloudy cool and miserable here for the last 2 days now..... Ive already had enough of it.... 

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gfs-1-312 (1).png

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8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Some signs of improvement beyond day 10 with high pressure largely in control and temps recovering. I'm not having this Ntly lark now, they rarely trouble us or cause to many probs in winter let alone May! And tbh they tend to blow themselves out after a couple of days anyway.. Cloudy cool and miserable here for the last 2 days now..... Ive already had enough of it.... 

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Indeed Matt. It looks as if things will improve early next week. Nowt spectacular, but better than tomorrow's dross!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.4e6158a4d6fc0e6a480a10e56acfd652.pngimage.thumb.png.ac95b8d09d622eceac60edce9e5dfd5b.png 

Though we really could do with some rain!

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed Matt. It looks as if things will improve early next week. Nowt spectacular, but better than tomorrow's dross!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.4e6158a4d6fc0e6a480a10e56acfd652.pngimage.thumb.png.ac95b8d09d622eceac60edce9e5dfd5b.png 

Though we really could do with some rain!

Hammered it down here the last couple of days Pete, sun has barely come out, and me tan is on the wane 😉 there is a chance of winds from the North later next week with wintry showers to Scotland, but I would hope a fair amount of dry conditions further South... Beyond that, perhaps warming up, I seem to have forgot, its still late April! 👍

Edited by Mattwolves

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hammered it down here the last couple of days Pete, sun has barely come out, and me tan is on the wane 😉 there is a chance of winds from the North later next week with wintry showers to Scotland, but I would hope a fair amount of dry conditions further South... Beyond that, perhaps warming up, I seem to have forgot, its still late April! 👍

Also can confirm it hammered it down here too. Sick of the rain already I can just about put up with it in December and January but not now. I think in Wigan we’ll have a close to average month for rainfall. Hammered it down at the start and ends of the month. 

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Next weekend looking okay -- so long as that HP stays put:

image.thumb.png.73bbaae6cfd66f724743320f879cf39b.pngimage.thumb.png.900c8a595c2bde2d2c2e82cde1fc6a2b.png 

PS: We had just enough rain to wet the pavements, yesterday...

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6z warms up next week, plenty of ridging, still some showers breaking out but a lot of fine pleasant weather and high pressure stronger later next week..could be worse!👍

06_129_uk2mtmp.png

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The nasty wee beastie currently west of Ireland

geo.thumb.JPG.74d9f8d17460e033a7fbdb0408f53413.JPG

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10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

6z warms up next week, plenty of ridging, still some showers breaking out but a lot of fine pleasant weather and high pressure stronger later next week..could be worse!👍

06_129_uk2mtmp.png

And very likely will be...Knowing our luck!🤣

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And the end simply screams potential!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.4a6c6057dd00968331ae651297aa4ffd.pngimage.thumb.png.c064b8eb28692a4743ef7edfd3962512.png :yahoo:

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