Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Mandrake said:

Despite the weather radar and predictions it has been bone dry today in the South with plenty of sunny spells although windy and only 1.8mm precipitation yesterday. Been out on the downs today and looking North over London I can see some small showers falling from isolated clouds. This is far from the heavy rainfall predicted.

Welcome mate! Not seen you before. I agree, we were predicted thunderstorms in Wigan today. It hasn’t rained at all never mind a thunderstorm. Friday and Saturday look like a write off though

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have you guys seen the 3 month JMA models? They are AMAZING. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tks T, I 'think' I followed most of that. As an ex forecaster I find it totally fascinating so many of you understand areas I had never heard of whilst working other than if I found time now and then to dip into the Royal Met Soc output of articles. Most of which guaranteed I'd nod off fairly quickly.

Thank you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, SunnyDazee said:

Have you guys seen the 3 month JMA models? They are AMAZING. 

The whole N Hemisphere looks like one huge HP fest. June looks like the best month for warmth although HP sitting just off the South West of UK isn't the best position if you want a heat wave.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

The whole N Hemisphere looks like one huge HP fest. June looks like the best month for warmth although HP sitting just off the South West of UK isn't the best position if you want a heat wave.

I’m not too fussed about the heat wave part. Dry and very warm will do me. If we have a summer 25 degrees day in day out I’d be very happy, but they look much drier than average on the precipitation scales. I do think eventually the high pressure will drag in south eastern winds, as July is starting to show though and if that happens, it’s gonna get really hot. The majority of these models are now suggesting this spell of changeable weather going into early/mid May will be the last spell of unsettled weather for a while now. I’m not banking on it just yet but the signs are pointing that way. I think we’ll get a heat wave too if these models are to be believed as I don’t think the high pressure will constantly sit south west, but there’s a lot of time between now and then. June does look warm but July has the wind directions, although the data is more scarce. Doesn’t look like the cool weather predicted by some after the winter is gonna be anywhere near close

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The CFS is looking a bit unsettled in July!!!:help:😜

19070712_2500.gif

19071012_2500.gif

19071212_2500.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Haven’t been on here for a while ..... is the cfs still a model ??  Should have been retired a long time ago !! 

The 00z eps were cooler though not as much as I expected 

2D0996C8-A9EB-4796-BB34-8BF3F30BCEDB.thumb.png.47cf9b1a918b9bf9481cd531dafc17cd.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

The CFS is looking a bit unsettled in July!!!:help:😜

19070712_2500.gif

19071012_2500.gif

19071212_2500.gif

3 months away..... but since we're in fantasy island heres Christmas Eve on the CFS monster 9 monther, cant wait

cfs-0-5856.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

3 months away..... but since we're in fantasy island heres Christmas Eve on the CFS monster 9 monther, cant wait

cfs-0-5856.png

It was showing charts like that throughout winter..:gathering:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is still looking to settle things down a tad, next week:

image.thumb.png.c8659f135819976eb907655733cb0317.pngimage.thumb.png.afd32cb9fe0a3603025668103f1b21de.png 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GFS is still looking to settle things down a tad, next week:

image.thumb.png.c8659f135819976eb907655733cb0317.pngimage.thumb.png.afd32cb9fe0a3603025668103f1b21de.png 

There’s some very conflicting weather going into May Day BH. Most predictions had it as a washout last week, it looks though it being a complete washout might not be true, but some models had it warmer than average and dryer, some have it slightly wetter and cooler. Could really go either way to be honest, just looks as though the really wet weekend will not happen now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I may be wrong but to me the ukmo 12h doesn't settle down properly once storm hannah blows through..it does improve but despite increased ridging there are some shallow trough / weaknesses which drift around with a continued risk of showers with some days drier and brighter than others.

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Frosty. said:

I may be wrong but to me the ukmo 12h doesn't settle down properly once storm hannah blows through..it does improve but despite increased ridging there are some shallow trough / weaknesses which drift around with a continued risk of showers with some days drier and brighter than others.

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

The big issue is where that area of low pressure where the U.K. is ends up, a lot of models have it in France and NE Europe, some have it over the U.K. like this. That will decide whether we get warmer and dryer or cooler and wetter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is (perhaps) the point where something will have to give?

image.thumb.png.e9de552b905db9eaba323655b3ad6b96.pngimage.thumb.png.c81d0c1a567660f97ae06f0c5af7b1fe.png 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

This is (perhaps) the point where something will have to give?

image.thumb.png.e9de552b905db9eaba323655b3ad6b96.pngimage.thumb.png.c81d0c1a567660f97ae06f0c5af7b1fe.png 

That exactly. This is why our models are so confusing at the moment. Very very mixed signals. Personally I think we’ll end up on the warmer side just due to trends, but I’d say it’s 55/45. Looks like we will only know going into the beginning of next week

Edited by SunnyDazee

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The CFS is looking a bit unsettled in July!!!:help:😜

19070712_2500.gif

19071012_2500.gif

19071212_2500.gif

I could have drawn a better chart than that with crayons Karl. 😉 Let's get may out of the way before we think about July! 👍

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif.244e76a445f1b7fe98d7c9dfe621c1c6.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z taking a while to warm things up, Infact it's distinctively chilly out to day 7/8. Hopefully the pressure build from the SW bringing warmer temps by day 10.

gfs-1-210.png

gfs-1-228 (1).png

gfs-0-228.png

gfs-1-234.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FV3 not too bad, for next Thursday:

image.thumb.png.047ae8e69c850bf7360c69445080566d.pngimage.thumb.png.a9b27eb9fe2c61a02f9b8a79600bdfc0.png 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Way hay... 12z lining up a plume beyond day 10!! This can mean 2 things, much warmer conditions. And  a lovely bit of dust. 

gfs-1-288.png

gfs-1-300.png

gfs-0-288.png

7jSS.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Just an observation and nothing else but the gfs by the middle of next week is highly amplified upstream resulting in the in arms of the P and STJs combining and running south of the Greenland block and the vortex fragment in the western Atlantic. Thus a lot of inertia in general across the Atlantic with slack low pressure over the UK with showery interludes and sunshine. Perhaps en route towards where the anomalies have been heading

gfs-nhemi-z250_speed-6679600.thumb.png.5bc4e2661453b65249e170d83b670c3c.pnggfs-natl-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6712000.thumb.png.e5381cb7445e4d7fa14d9aa404db9682.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Not bad and it's only 288 hours away!!🌞:oldgood:😁

12_288_ukthickness850.png

12_288_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An impending waft? image.thumb.png.d04df8ae1cec341c5d3bbac85d9d1a35.png image.thumb.png.d9dd00e13301cb86769dddff8484acd1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the models at T240, Z500 and jet stream plots, middle of bank holiday weekend, GFS, GEM, FV3 (we await ECM):

image.thumb.jpg.8297421e3bfb03d8b29948964db08bea.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b6130ca03358bce063c06c71f14b4d2e.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.bdf40759a54f179fbf6c14580b9dbc55.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b92378d1d3f513da80bc6c9bdb44ad97.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.431a53af462786fd6b127612fe0766d2.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8aec90c5591ab44fcfd3872a5faea3ea.jpg

The jet stream plots look a bit of a mess to be honest, but I think we are in a pattern that is in flux (with regards to the models, obviously the actual weather will take it's own path).   But height rises in UK look a very good bet for this timescale, and background signals are good forward from this.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not making this up, the longer term GEFS 12z is a crud fest, plenty of very cool and unsettled charts towards mid may.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...