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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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Posted (edited)

The Low swinging in off the Atlantic has been named Storm Hannah by the Irish Met. Possible severe gales for the S/W into Saturday morning with plenty of rain as the system moves through. And the possibility of a wintry mix in isolated spots as cooler -2/-3 uppers get pulled in.

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Edited by Polar Maritime

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Posted (edited)

Storm Hannah is going to pack a punch, hold on to you're hats, batten down the hatches etc etc.blah blah😜:aggressive::hi:

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Edited by Frosty.

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Quite an unsettled spell coming up with showery rain at times. Friday night into Saturday could be quite wild, with gales in many places, therefore temps will be suppressed. Hold on to your hats folks it's gonna be wild! Not to worry this unsettled spell does indeed look like a blip increasing signs of high pressure regaining control next week, with warmer and settled  conditions back in the mix. 

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean ends on a ...erm..HiGh NotE!🎶🎶😜

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted (edited)

Yes folks, the weather between now and Saturday looks pretty naff. From Sunday onward, however, things look to improve:

FV3 at T+96: image.thumb.png.7b0274353184eea5f385dd33ea091e4f.png image.thumb.png.70bee975e875f8b7b5ac67bdf1720405.png

FV3 at T+384: image.thumb.png.68a03a8911a94295b07570f16208dd99.png image.thumb.png.24a40aed2797a4e46c74f28effa7bc0b.png

GFS Op at T+384: image.thumb.png.a25ee3a371a14d5f1b80313590bf7049.png image.thumb.png.6614dffaa553855e8d204c90f6a8e471.png

So it does appear that HP will be 'here or hereabouts'...As to where? Who knows?

Yesterday's ensemble's (it's what's available) temp variability highlights the uncertainty regarding where any anticyclone ends up:

                                  image.thumb.png.76f78f7e7a3a668b5744cacaf22dd29f.png

As an aside: Does co-codamol addle the brain?:unknw:

Edited by Ed Stone

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Posted (edited)

Once Storm Hannah has blown through the GEFS 00z mean takes on a predominantly settled pleasant look with ridging / high pressure becoming the main feature and the PFJ to the north.

GFSAVGEU00_114_1.png

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GFSAVGEU00_378_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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We're lucky that the Sat storm will have peaked before arrival and be on the decline; otherwise it could have brought hurricane-force gusts to the southwest.

Even as it looks to be, gusts to near 50 mph or so will be hard on the newly-leafed deciduous trees.

 

Sunday onward, the main story looks to be the major Arctic blocking with a highly amplified 'arm' reaching down to somewhere between the eastern N. Atlantic (just west of the UK) and eastern Europe, this position being determined by how much the rising AAM in response to the CCKW/MJO event is able to prevent the mean trough position from retrograding further west than the Azores.

The most warm and dry outcome would be about 1/3 control to the major Arctic blocking and 2/3 to the rising AAM. ECM 12z of yesterday showed that for D10. A cooler but still largely dry alternative is roughly 50/50 between the two driving forces, which is what the ECM 00z shows today for D9-D10. Meanwhile the GFS 00z has gone with at least 2/3 Arctic blocking, maybe more than that. It sure does have a thing for mid-Atlantic ridge patterns! 

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Out to T+135, and things are looking much more settled::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.f9b89d91f5d32515870c348139ec8dc6.pngimage.thumb.png.06e56b80a712c8601ebf3d739cbae7c1.png 

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Singularity said:

We're lucky that the Sat storm will have peaked before arrival and be on the decline; otherwise it could have brought hurricane-force gusts to the southwest.

Even as it looks to be, gusts to near 50 mph or so will be hard on the newly-leafed deciduous trees.

 

Sunday onward, the main story looks to be the major Arctic blocking with a highly amplified 'arm' reaching down to somewhere between the eastern N. Atlantic (just west of the UK) and eastern Europe, this position being determined by how much the rising AAM in response to the CCKW/MJO event is able to prevent the mean trough position from retrograding further west than the Azores.

The most warm and dry outcome would be about 1/3 control to the major Arctic blocking and 2/3 to the rising AAM. ECM 12z of yesterday showed that for D10. A cooler but still largely dry alternative is roughly 50/50 between the two driving forces, which is what the ECM 00z shows today for D9-D10. Meanwhile the GFS 00z has gone with at least 2/3 Arctic blocking, maybe more than that. It sure does have a thing for mid-Atlantic ridge patterns! 

Yesterday’s 12z eps suite was erring towards the warm side, looks like the 00z version will be to the cooler .... place your bets for the back end of week 2 

 

yesterdays 12z - will post the 00z version later 

57647DFD-FDDB-4D6B-88DB-0305B6D01364.thumb.jpeg.deee8c3f77eb26e746bbe1b52acfb0c2.jpeg

Edited by bluearmy

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Not a good trend from the Gfs 6z operational..in winter, sure but not in early may..hope it's wrong.

06_192_mslp850.png

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Just hoping that the cold air gets shunted eastward:

image.thumb.png.32fb4c92e9649c18acacd52fa0031173.pngimage.thumb.png.be3edcfe14259684999c441be8f38584.png 

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Just hoping that the cold air gets shunted eastward:

image.thumb.png.32fb4c92e9649c18acacd52fa0031173.pngimage.thumb.png.be3edcfe14259684999c441be8f38584.png 

I'm sure in winter that would be guaranteed Ed..if by some fluke we had similar charts.😁

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm sure in winter that would be guaranteed Ed..if by some fluke we had similar charts.😁

But it's all 'come out in the wash' -- despite one or two flirtations with the Blue Meanies, things are still headed in the right direction::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.ebc2595c9c0bcf52289997d1b125db8c.pngimage.thumb.png.06ab58fe334691e173b20599a70bfe55.png 

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I swear the 06z has consistently been the most 'Greenland-happy' with the HLB evolution for at least a few days now. We've also tended to see the 12z then swing back by a larger amount such that it moves further from that than the 00z was.

That 06z takes until D16 to get to where I sense we ought to be at by D10 at the latest. It implies too much overwhelming of the +AAM forcing for my liking.

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22 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I swear the 06z has consistently been the most 'Greenland-happy' with the HLB evolution for at least a few days now. We've also tended to see the 12z then swing back by a larger amount such that it moves further from that than the 00z was.

That 06z takes until D16 to get to where I sense we ought to be at by D10 at the latest. It implies too much overwhelming of the +AAM forcing for my liking.

The FV3 kind of agrees, S...I was wondering whether the FV3 06Z might be a tad overoptimistic with its warm air and northerly jet:

image.thumb.png.7bf754f530cb337233236a80b2ad886c.pngimage.thumb.png.0bf35cb6796b70533473a661e068c0a4.png 

 

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A return to high pressure looks possible next week so this weeks rain could just be a blip temperatures don't look spectacularly high but the strong sunshine makes up for that where any cloud lingers it would still be on the chilly side

 

gefsensmslpLondon.png

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The GEFS 6z mean looks a lot more benign / ridgy beyond Storm Hannah..looks rather pleasant, probably feeling fresh with good visibility and warm in the sunshine but with chilly nights where skies clear.

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Today's 00Z temperature ensemble has some warm members, though the OP is way down at the colder end of the batch:

image.thumb.png.869b1fb7f2399c1e8ca3c1a429110051.png

 

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Looking at the longer term GEFS 6z..most of it is crud with a few exceptions!🌞

GFSP13EU06_372_1.png

GFSP15EU06_372_1.png

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Looking at the latest radar there's a lot of heavy showers this afternoon in bands with some thunderstorms too. The Gfs 6z operational concurs.

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A few Cb/cells around

modis.thumb.JPG.0248d739336ac876fa61ccbd68ce1c74.JPGlight.thumb.JPG.0cc2a2b294f7188274725f957de627f9.JPG12.thumb.gif.ec6cf1e0914bdbc58d824446dab69506.gif

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Despite the weather radar and predictions it has been bone dry today in the South with plenty of sunny spells although windy and only 1.8mm precipitation yesterday. Been out on the downs today and looking North over London I can see some small showers falling from isolated clouds. This is far from the heavy rainfall predicted.

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Hey ho, cloud tops to just below the Tropopause?

sounding.thumb.gif.4cd2bd68b399353d389cc33becfe68cc.gif

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