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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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At worst, these Ecm 12z operational charts are changeable and certainly not unsettled, in fact they are closer to settled than unsettled, especially further s / se.

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A reminder to myself, again, not to comment on the post(s) of others in future

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I don't care what certain folk say, this unsettled spell is going to be shortlived.... Fact.... Today's major downpours Brought about half hour of rain here.... Didnt even water the dafs!!!! May is shaping up for plenty of fine and warm conditions, let's just hope we don't end up with an hose pipe ban.... Because come summer we will be needing them big time to cool down...... 👍😉

water-hose-gif.gif

Also brought us in Wigan about 20/30 minutes of showers, with 1 sound of thunder. Was pretty pathetic considering what I was expecting. Tomorrow will be another test but even then I doubt they’ll be that bad. GFS parallel, Ensemble and CFS v2 also showing starting next week warmer weather for us. I think we’ll be fine, just a nice little shower to get ready for the monster summer! 1976 style fingers crossed 🤞

Edited by SunnyDazee
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Finally, from me, the ECM T240 mean:

image.thumb.jpg.8bf65da096e770a6f63df3d458882d72.jpg

For comparison, the GEFS mean at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.9138a835168bceaacdf99c3fa03991d4.jpg

ECM has the likely mean  high centre much more favourable for settled UK weather, whereas the GEFS is a half way house as I mentioned earlier with a still significant chance of heights holding over Greenland to some extent at this timeframe.  

All of which points to another nice bank holiday weekend in early May.

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3 minutes ago, knocker said:

A reminder to myself, again, not to comment on the post(s) of others in future

Its a weather forum, people will have a difference of opinion! And that's the idea of a forum, to air your views, it's irrelevant whether you agree or disagree!! 

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Posted (edited)

ECM looking increasingly settled as the run progresses. Although there will be some rain at times, its certainly far less unsettled than the last couple of days have shown. The south and east predominantly dry with occasional fronts towards the north and west. Although high pressure winning out towards the end of the run. Combine this with GFS and importantly the UKMO, looks like this unsettled spell will likely be no more than a blip. The shift from the 0z ECM to 12z is very pleasing to see. Hardly 'unsettled' as others have suggested. Changeable, yes, but I wouldn't go unsettled particularly given the outlook only a day or two ago.

Edited by SizzlingHeat
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9 minutes ago, knocker said:

A reminder to myself, again, not to comment on the post(s) of others in future

I don’t mean no harm personally mate, we usually tend to spin it how we like the weather, it’s only a bit of banter. Sorry if what I posted or what others posted if it made you feel bad, we don’t mean it. Different outputs are showing different things I agree, the overall trend on the majority shows more settled weather, but of course yours looked unsettled. You’re obviously very lnowledgable I’m not criticising you one bit!

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5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Its a weather forum, people will have a difference of opinion! And that's the idea of a forum, to air your views, it's irrelevant whether you agree or disagree!! 

I couldn't care less whether people or agree or disagree. It's the childish nit picking which is a total bore and completely unnecessary, A little more attention to the actual weather wouldn't go amiss..

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18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

At worst, these Ecm 12z operational charts are changeable and certainly not unsettled, in fact they are closer to settled than unsettled, especially further s / se.

Changeable, is surely by definition, unsettled, as it's not as if you can have settled, changeable weather?

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1 minute ago, Paul said:

Changeable, is surely by definition, unsettled, as it's not as if you can have settled, changeable weather?

It's just how I see it paul, as I said, better towards the s / se..changeable is inbetween settled and unsettled isn't it?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, knocker said:

I couldn't care less whether people or agree or disagree. It's the childish nit picking which is a total bore and completely unnecessary, A little more attention to the actual weather wouldn't go amiss..

I've never nit picked one post of yours, call it settled or unsettled, whatever you like, the weather will do what it likes in the end... And not what GFS and ECM show!!! 

Edited by Paul
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Just now, Frosty. said:

It's just how I see it paul, as I said, better towards the s / se..changeable is inbetween settled and unsettled isn't it?

But if you're saying it as you see it, you probably ought to note that apart from the 216 hour chart there, the rest have lower, rather than higher pressure nearer to the UK, with a west or southwest flow off of the Atlantic. It's hardly settled!

It's this spinning of stuff which is frustrating, either due to weather preferences, or the need to make a point. There's just no need. 

 

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Just now, Paul said:

But if you're saying it as you see it, you probably ought to note that apart from the 216 hour chart there, the rest have lower, rather than higher pressure nearer to the UK, with a west or southwest flow off of the Atlantic. It's hardly settled!

It's this spinning of stuff which is frustrating, either due to weather preferences, or the need to make a point. There's just no need. 

 

Fair enough paul, we all interpret the models differently and I certainly don't want to get into trouble over my opinion..I just enjoy the fact we all see different things so it's never boring for sure.

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Posted (edited)

Thanks matt, I've certainly seen an all round improvement in our weather prospects from the models today..is it perfect?..   NO of course not but it's much better than things were looking yesterday and I think most will agree with me on that..it's looking less cool and less cyclonic with more emphasis on ridging  / high pressure, certainly from the gfs / gefs / ukmo beyond this showery cooler blip!!👍

Edited by Frosty.
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The EPS mean anomalies this evening continue the trend that has been indicated of late.

The main vortex lobe is over Franz Joseph with associated trough into Europe but a segment of the Canadian vortex has dropped into the western Atlantic, where it remains static courtesy of the subtropical high ridging north/north west via the UK towards Greenland where the positive anomalies reside thanks to the migration of the Scandinavian high pressure.Thus the outlook more settled and drier with temps around average, perhaps a tad above. No appreciable change to this scenario in the later period

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And this evening's NOAA is in the same ball park

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean certainly ends on a ...HIGH note. 🎶🎶😜

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean certainly ends on a ...HIGH note. 🎶🎶😜

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Wowcher that’s looking positive

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36 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I've never nit picked one post of yours, call it settled or unsettled, whatever you like, the weather will do what it likes in the end... And not what GFS and ECM show!!! 

Just for fun, I remember seeing this output / GFS 12z on the 12th April, like you said “the weather will do what it likes in the end” I WISH ...25c then to this in 4 days 🤪

6CA96298-AD87-438E-BFC6-052EC77651A6.thumb.png.22c951bf118148eae544249a22bcb48b.pngA2ACCBC6-036A-4E61-9A94-2267A00D27A3.thumb.png.1c2af342c0f3509e07d4cf84ed34410b.pngAC0D74D3-ED7F-4243-9E01-F7B6CF8A9EAF.thumb.png.8691bbd598d250520ec1922042321f3b.png867DBD77-8F15-491F-8157-9F3F9337F513.thumb.png.c8cd1cd3a8a863b36d62e6b4730d096a.png

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Posted (edited)

Not really shorts and t-shirt weather on saturday according to the 18z op.

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18_66_preciptype.png

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Edited by Frosty.
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Just now, Frosty. said:

Not really shorts and t-shirt weather on saturday according to the 18z op.

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I’ve thought Saturday looks the worst day this week by far. Looking cold wet windy, all in all just dreadful. 

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Yep, Saturday looks the write off during the weekend! Improvements for Sunday into Monday on the 18s....and warming up a tad again. 

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To continue briefly through next week with the gfs with no great confidence

Over Weds > Saturday it amplifies the Azores high which reinforces the high pressure into Greenland whilst relegating the Atlantic trough west. At the same time promoting low pressure over Europe. All of this leaves the UK in a slack E/NE flow and pretty dry

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The ecm has the cold front bringing rain to western and northern regions on Tuesday with the south east staying dry but by Weds more amplification takes place as the Azores high ridges to the west with the surface high cell centred over Ireland. Albeit still some showery rain around. This sticks around until Friday and thus light winds continue over the UK but still some light showers around.

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