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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, as we move on down the line (thank you, Roy Orbison) the FV3 produces a watered-down version of its obligatory 'Arctic Blast':

image.thumb.png.1d4b64c49a85384bc2642d8ccb471199.pngimage.thumb.png.d8875e744bb76506dcbadceaac50a471.png

What's the chance of this one verifying!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.ef758f5a16bfe57b0dfa8d429bf80049.png :shok:

Chances don't compute Ed..like all the others before it.😁

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1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Is the FV3 the uprated GFS?  Any idea as to whether it's less-prone to the old GFS biases?

The FV3 is suffering from major bug issues and is currently due for official release in June, but this keeps being put back, which goes to show the issues are still a big problem.... I would take anything it shows regarding cold..... With a big pinch of salt!! Back to the here and now, I feel 25 could be exceeded somewhere in the next few days.... Pretty amazing for late April! 👍

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The FV3 has an update going live this afternoon:

Quote

NCO will be making changes to the parallel GFS v15 with today's 1200UTC model run. The details of these changes are below.

  1. We changed the way snow amounts were calculated and communicated to the land surface model, basing it on the fraction of frozen precipitation falling on the ground rather than basing it on the total precipitation in cold conditions.
  2. We refined the interaction of radiation with cloud particles, allowing for each type of hydrometeor (convective rain, stratiform rain, snow, graupel, and ice) to assume its own physical characteristics as calculated by the GFDL microphysics scheme (like particle radius) and interact accordingly with the radiation scheme.
  3. We updated the supersaturation parameter over ice in the data assimilation system.
  4. We updated the Data Assimilation to assimilate NPP OMPS ozone, place NOAA-19 SBUV/2 ozone in monitor, assimilate Meteosat-11 SEVIRI channels 5 & 6, update QC for GOES AMVs in preparation for GOES-17  

 

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Can keep your artic blasts in the artic ! More days like today please !!

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Glorious day today, first heat of summer = first frost of winter, as moments to mark the passage of time.  So to the 12s and this animation through to T180 from ICON looks consistent with model output/

anim_vys4.gif 

the trough developing just west of the UK,giving some thundery potential mostly to the west before becoming more unsettled before the ridge becomes re established.  A theme we might see repeated, I would suggest!

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1 hour ago, JoeShmoe said:

Can keep your artic blasts in the artic ! More days like today please !!

agree but it's Arctic not artic! 

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Official release of GFS P now scheduled for June 

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All's still okay for Wednesday:image.thumb.png.1adaededd538b9c2d9a5626d6f9710c9.pngimage.thumb.png.604c758dbc67079dbf8f7804e8206e51.png

And Paragate will soon be a thing of the past!:oldgood:

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Icon not to bad out to nearly day 8...there is some low pressure to our S/SW... But there is plenty of high pressure on the scene at the end of the run... Personally I think any unsettled conditions, are gonna be a blink and you will miss it affair!!! 

icon-0-180.png

icon-1-180.png

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