Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

34 minutes ago, 4wd said:

It's been mentioned before no doubt but the reason 1976 got so hot and dry was the dry winter and year before.
In 2003 Europe had extreme heat at least in part due to dry ground no longer soothing extremes as water changed state on a daily basis.
I'd not worry too much at this stage as dry spells in spring are common, and in most years there's a sudden switch even if we have to wait until European monsoon in June.

European monsoon!!! That's a swear word on here mate..... How dare you.... Don't even think it!!!

[Methuselah]

A chance of upper 20s for parts of the SE; hopefully, a prospect of some heavy rain, too -- which is sure to go down a storm?

 

Edited April 17, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Derecho]

April is typically one of the driest months in the UK and easterlies are just as common as westerlies. So it doesn't surprise me that the Atlantic influence is being pushed back further west and we are remaining in warmer air.

I wouldn't get too worried about the persistence of dry weather at this point but if we are seeing high pressure dominating in mid-June then something unusual may be in the works again, as late June usually sees a return of Atlantic based airmasses with a greater chance of rainfall.

I can imagine the rainfall totals for this April in Hull are very very low.... but winter Autumn and winter up to early February were rather average in terms of rainfall.

[BlueHedgehog074]

The 12Z GFS shows High Pressure pouncing back over the U.K towards the end of next week with the main area of the Atlantic troughing directed back further North.

Generally warm and bright with some sunny spells, especially towards Western UK, maybe still with the odd thundery shower towards the South.

[Frosty.]

No sign of cool atlantic air invading on the ukmo 12h..gorgeous easter weather and it stays warm into next week and probably increasingly humid with a chance of thundery showers..trough stalling and disrupting against the block to the east..could be some meteorological fireworks next week.

Edited April 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

European monsoon!!! That's a swear word on here mate..... How dare you.... Don't even think it!!!

I didn't think it was a regular enough occurrence to even be a 'thing', unless it's affects more the northern UK? June is the second driest month of the year here.

[Methuselah]

FV3: Op: 

And ensemble: 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational says it may snow in..Err..May

Edited April 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

would have thought Scottish snaw common in May?

 

'

[Don]

2 hours ago, 4wd said:

I'd not worry too much at this stage as dry spells in spring are common, and in most years there's a sudden switch even if we have to wait until European monsoon in June.

The problem is though, it has been predominantly dry since last summer, so if we are to get another hot one, temperature records would surely be under threat? 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

27 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z operational says it may snow in..Err..May

Chance of verification.... 1%....

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Chance of verification.... 1%....

Just like during most of the winter!  Outlook does look predominantly warm now.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Chance of verification.... 1%....

More like -0 percent, just like every other arctic incursion in the last 5 months

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z through to T240:

The trough early next week back more strong than the morning runs but it is still run through with a revert to high pressure dominated weather by T240.

I wonder if we will see a flatter evolution on the morning runs?  Usually in winter the more amplified solutions show on the 12s but here those looking for warmth may prefer the morning runs and hope they recur tomorrow. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Don said:

Just like during most of the winter!  Outlook does look predominantly warm now.

Yes and you mention Don how dry it's been since last summer... Could we be looking at a repeating pattern? I think from May 29 last year up until the 24th July, large parts of the SE barely recorded any rainfall. I think the meaning of a dry day is a recording of less than 1mm of rain. Heathrow over a 55 day period from May 30 to July 23 recorded rainfall amounts of 0.4mm!!followed by Hampton southwest London at 0.6mm, then Kenley in Surrey at 1mm.followed by Cambridge at 1.00m,cavandish at 1.6mm,and High Wycombe at 1.88mm.I think the title went to brooms barn near Bury, St edmonds, this went 49 consecutive days without a single drop of rain! So that's a tuff act to follow, One thing I do feel confident of this summer is that there will be alot of heat building over Europe, so I would imagine some pretty impressive plumes could be hitting the U.k at times.

[Methuselah]

Warmer air is definitely spreading in from the east, as we now have a steadily thickening Rees-Mogg...And, as always happens when a Rees-Mogg rears its head, things that were once clear and easy to see, become shrouded in an all-obscuring haze.

Edited April 17, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

Another amazing Ecm run with warmth holding on further east before heading west again..doesn't look like april will be a record cold month after all!!!

Edited April 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

I suspect the detail for next week from Tuesday on will take some pinning down. The ecm has low pressure sneaking north east with a lot of convective activity mid week.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Another amazing Ecm run with warmth holding on further east before heading west again..doesn't look like april will be a record cold month after all!!!

Hold ya horses there Karl.... I think anyweather will be on later to tell us that May is gonna be an ice age!

Only bantering anyweather, I actually enjoy reading your posts

Edited April 17, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Don]

13 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes and you mention Don how dry it's been since last summer... Could we be looking at a repeating pattern? 

Although I personally hope not, I think there is a good chance.  However, I would rather a hot and dry summer over a hot and humid one!  The nights last year were bearable at least.

Edited April 17, 2019 by Don

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Hold ya horses there Karl.... I think anyweather will be on later to tell us that May is gonna be an ice age!

I think those who cannot be named deserve some praise, from a while back they were calling a warmer second half of April and looking at the current model output that's exactly what we are seeing.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Although I personally hope not, I think there is a good chance.  However, I would rather a hot and dry summer over a hot and humid one!  The nights last year were bearable at least.

Me and me cat managed no probs last year Don... Its all in the application....

[Frosty.]

There are a surprising number of arctic shots on the extended GEFS 12z in very early may but I've had enough of phantom cold from the north that never makes it closer than T+300 hours..I fancy this instead, given how the models are looking, I would say it has a decent chance even at that range!!

Edited April 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

And the gfs is thinking along the same lines as the ecm  Of course non of this anywhere near nailed down

Edited April 17, 2019 by knocker

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, Don said:

The problem is though, it has been predominantly dry since last summer, so if we are to get another hot one, temperature records would surely be under threat? 

There doesn't really need to be a lengthy dry spell to get high temperatures. July 1st 2015 can prove that. If that set up had occurred 4 weeks later I bet a certain record would've easily got broken.