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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Next weekend's FV3 prognosis is also good: image.thumb.png.cc1acea925fb3dcc292136eeed0250fe.png

                                                                        image.thumb.png.1a2915d6424c5b2f87278757a97a2b58.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
4 minutes ago, Don said:

He doesn’t know it yet, but there is a party at Steve Murr’s on Saturday and all snow lovers are invited!

The only problem I can see is the temperature, at 9c 48f the snow won't stick.:cold:

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

The only problem I can see is the temperature, at 9c 48f the snow won't stick.:cold:

It’s ok, Steve lives on a hill.

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

NetWx-MR take re snow chance for Fri/Sat/Sun. Maybe an isolated chance of temporary sugar dusting somewhere. -10c windchill possible for parts of Wales in the early hours of Sunday Morning.

476602162_viewimage(72).thumb.png.8ad4c8b06ef2a920d6fadd18241c2bc3.png261506004_viewimage(73).thumb.png.ea69a930d6f2b9598c94b9b29873542a.png1382191192_viewimage(74).thumb.png.c2eae64f1359cb3ac0f2353b308fdecd.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The only problem I can see is the temperature, at 9c 48f the snow won't stick.:cold:

So that's what 'heat snow' (NW thread, back in winter!) is then!:oldgrin:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

According to this it's a nationwide white out..just kidding

06_60_uksnowdepth.png

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Crikey! I really do hope this one goes pear-shaped! Convection might be quite tasty, should it materialise, however...?

image.thumb.png.4d8ad51d9ff592b63bed06aef8d564b9.pngimage.thumb.png.0477fe3a060709bc25b64c0570c9df1e.png 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean it's a gradually milder / warmer trend next week and Easter itself could be very decent.

21_132_850tmp.png

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21_180_850tmp.png

21_180_2mtmpmax.png

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21_252_850tmp.png

21_252_500mb.png

21_252_2mtmpmax.png

21_276_850tmp.png

21_276_500mb.png

21_276_2mtmpmax.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

06Z GEFS ensemble contains some stonkers; but, also some stinkers:

 

image.thumb.png.b1f103d67fe0d338ce548904ae3e5d17.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

06Z GEFS ensemble contains some stonkers; but, also some stinkers:

 

image.thumb.png.b1f103d67fe0d338ce548904ae3e5d17.png

Funny you should say that Ed, whenever I type in stonkers it comes up as stinkers!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Here's some stinkers..I mean stonkers..?️

 

3_348_850tmp.png

3_348_2mtmpmax.png

10_348_850tmp.png

10_348_2mtmpmax.png

10_372_2mtmpmax.png

11_372_850tmp.png

11_372_2mtmpmax.png

13_372_850tmp.png

13_372_2mtmpmax.png

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Absolutely gorgeous here in the midlands again today, feels positively balmy in the sun and out of the wind! The sun perhaps has gone to my head, so I think now is a good time to post a Gfs6z chart deep in fi.... Showing some major  cold pool to our North.... It looks a beaut!!! 

gfs-1-384 (1).png

Fjc54zM_d.jpg

Edited by Mattwolves
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Maybe one or two snowflakes around, this coming weekend: image.thumb.png.be1fcd7929e3dd1cf097327ebe0ea484.png

Be 'eck, when ah were a lud, t'wouldn't even registered as cold. I can't think what all the fuss is about. Far too many softies about, these days?:oldgrin:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Just waiting for the amber warnings, this looks serious for the SE:shok::help:

12_54_preciptype.png

 

Edited by Frosty.
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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Just waiting for the amber warnings, this looks serious for the SE:shok::help:

Mr Murr’s party is off

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
Just now, Don said:

Mr Murr’s party is off

No doubt down to snowdrifts!:yahoo:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

No doubt down to snowdrifts!:yahoo:

Are there not any mountains in kent?..serious elevation would help..pfffft

Anyway, it looks like a non event to me not that it ever looked like an event in the first place and i'm looking forward to a potentially decent easter.

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Are there not any mountains in kent?..serious elevation would help..pfffft

Anyway, it looks like a non event to me not that it ever looked like an event in the first place and i'm looking forward to a potentially decent easter.

When I was in Kent, it was called the Weald, I think? Though I must admit that The Kentish Alps does have a more 'alpine' ring to it...:oldgood:

Having said that, I see that Tuesday's general warm-up could well see an interesting Foehn effect, on the leeward side of the mountains?

image.thumb.png.70a0cd800083854f16b309dad60b3fdd.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

UKMO 12z at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.a08d6544b3ed3bbcfadc34fc3a9e66b3.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d93c159034a97fea40739fb228e834a5.jpg

The high moves into a position where it can draw up more southerly air and therefore the warm up begins.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

This chart looks cold but is not cold in the winter sense, it's more cool really..looks pretty if you're a coldie but actually means nothing in mid april..a complete waste...5 or 6 weeks ago..different story!!!..all it means now is it wouldn't be wise to go out in a t-shirt

UW48-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

The pesky wee low, sitting just off Norfolk, might well be a fly-in-the-ointment?

image.thumb.png.4a9741bb91ab72202bfbdba18d660a62.pngimage.thumb.png.e83b8e58474e67978bbf11e06abfe175.png 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

The real warmth appears to be staying to the SE of us! Can't help but notice some colder pooling over Greenland again as well. 

gfs-1-222.png

gfs-1-228.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
31 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This chart looks cold but is not cold in the winter sense, it's more cool really..looks pretty if you're a coldie but actually means nothing in mid april..a complete waste...5 or 6 weeks ago..different story!!!..all it means now is it wouldn't be wise to go out in a t-shirt

UW48-7.gif

I dont even start wearing a coat till it hits - 5c

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Consistent trend on the 12z for a warm up, and maybe more importantly, a shift north in the jet stream.  Let's start with the ICON at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.27d3c9b4425bf3ec18a9eb10448b5800.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.cbe938019fa35a7c997510f3b32f5397.jpg

The link up with the Azores and Scandi highs looks to be significant. 

GEM next, again at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.70bb804de066a42ca01bf9193a43a201.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ae3a67aa56e6178889813546d36cdf99.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.acc8c12ccc072fe3e1d0820557c06320.jpg

Slightly different but similar story, GFS at same time

image.thumb.jpg.79c89023f96f2d21c74e6c42993d2ef6.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.347ce722754ab6f4476ac5b0bd68ee83.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.566b5cdc838cdc9763166dd985d92180.jpg

Stronger link up here, leading to a pull of warm air from the south.  A settled spell upcoming looks nailed on, implications for longer term, well I'll post on that later!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The real warmth appears to be staying to the SE of us! Can't help but notice some colder pooling over Greenland again as well. 

gfs-1-222.png

gfs-1-228.png

Indeed but 15 / 16c would feel pleasant enough, especially in any sunshine, much better than the 8 / 10c in the coming days.

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