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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

My goodness there are some stonking summery charts on the GEFS 12z for late April!🌞🔥.. Sad smiley alert!😜:help:

Thought I'd compare predicted T850s of 25th April this year with those of 1995...though, of course, 1995's actually happened:

This year: image.thumb.png.db85fa11e7f7d2e6ffcfacc529b8e344.png                                                            1995:      image.thumb.png.4b439d152ab98e02e706dad8ffc67205.png

May not mean anything, but I'm still a tad worried...

image.png

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Posted (edited)

ECM T192 and the switch from cold to heat is underway.

image.thumb.jpg.ccad7273b2b6444d54de2fb34f9ee383.jpg

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Next couple of frames could show some interest...

Edit:  but they didn't, a low got in the way of the surge from the south, for the time being, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.9365a308fc9289bfb062be4c7405da2f.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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A quick look at Saturdays cold snap, perhaps cold enough for a touch of Wintryness! Ecm then warms us up, before temps fall back again by day 10.

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21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192 and the switch from cold to heat is underway.

image.thumb.jpg.ccad7273b2b6444d54de2fb34f9ee383.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.1f05579e28079a6bbf53dda2192eaee6.jpg

Next couple of frames could show some interest...

Edit:  but they didn't, a low got in the way of the surge from the south, for the time being, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.9365a308fc9289bfb062be4c7405da2f.jpg

Looks like HLB getting a foothold to me. Heat bottled to our S means nothing if synoptics don't allow it to push N. Kind of like cold bottled to our N in winter.

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Really what the Ecm 12z operational  shows is the birth and death of a cool snap..I won't call it cold as such a compliment would give it too much credit.

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like HLB getting a foothold to me. Heat bottled to our S means nothing if synoptics don't allow it to push N. Kind of like cold bottled to our N in winter.

Maybe.  I actually think the opposite, this is the retraction of high latitude blocking (which we've seen in recent days) towards mid latitude blocking, and a more usual (historic) summer pattern with the jet stream heading north, but there would obviously be a transition, that transition  is where I think we are currently headed.  We'll see.

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

Maybe.  I actually think the opposite, this is the retraction of high latitude blocking (which we've seen in recent days) towards mid latitude blocking, and a more usual (historic) summer pattern with the jet stream heading north, but there would obviously be a transition, that transition  is where I think we are currently headed.  We'll see.

Well it means little as it's a day 10 chart, but HP is actually retrograding, and toughing is starting to cut SE across Russia. With the fairly dramatic final warming occurring, maybe temper heat expectations for the time being

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And the plot thickens..... Cold.... Mild...... Warm...... Cold again...... Drum roll please.... 

giphy.gif

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Just now, Mattwolves said:

And the plot thickens..... Cold.... Mild...... Warm...... Cold again...... Drum roll please.... 

giphy.gif

Anyone would think it's spring 😅

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11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well it means little as it's a day 10 chart, but HP is actually retrograding, and toughing is starting to cut SE across Russia. With the fairly dramatic final warming occurring, maybe temper heat expectations for the time being

Yes, I think the GFS was a bit different at the same time, though.  Your point about the final warming is interesting,for the benefit of others following the thread, here's the forecast zonal winds chart:

image.thumb.jpg.aa6788e17605255b23ec156ba5eec863.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.42c674728937e55af440ff0f48c3774c.jpg

Clear signal from GFS and GEFS for a nosedive heading towards the final warming.  I'm not certain on what that would mean for the weather down here, and more to the point in the immediate future, these things can take a while to filter down.  I think the more likely driver towards summer like weather will be from the GWO progression to Phase 6, and the effects of the final warming will be secondary and felt down the line.

 

image.thumb.jpg.2d34d6911c4db14770758bfdc4fdd956.jpg

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26 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well it means little as it's a day 10 chart, but HP is actually retrograding, and toughing is starting to cut SE across Russia. With the fairly dramatic final warming occurring, maybe temper heat expectations for the time being

Northern blocking if alligned correctly can promote prolonged warm weather if some heat to our east gets caught up in the flow. May 2008 was a good example of this.

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ECM ensemble mean at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.c408ba5f03043fe8af62ae53b6ba8a36.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.443983b50a14ec688d2930cf7224045e.jpg

On balance drawing up some heat...T240 chart looked like no clear signal given uncertainty.  I'm still optimistic of a fairly rapid transition to warmer settled weather after the cold snap later this week.

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This so called cold snap is looking more like a busted flush, max temps still expected to reach 9-11c despite the Easterly and then looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean we are on an upward curve!👍

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EDM0-240.GIF

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This so called cold snap is looking more like a busted flush, max temps still expected to reach 9-11c despite the Easterly and then looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean we are on an upward curve!👍

 

Only one day this month has reached 10C here so far. 9-11C sounds great, much warmer.
It will be about 6C though.

Edited by 4wd

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Evening! There is no point in looking too far ahead...Its going to feel Bitter In the wind this weekend , and given the Thickness of the cold 850,s it would not surprise me to see some snowflakes falling...😯 And the word COOL is absolutely ridiculous in the next few days in the forecast , Cold Or Bitter in the wind, those people who Compose , Absurd wording in there Forecasts need to look at what they write, That includes Netweather Forecasts, What is Cool at 7C with a stiff 15 to 20 mph from the Very Cold Airmass  from the East  which is on the way ....Cheers Everyone..😯

very cold.png

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Posts hidden. If you don't like what someone posts, use the ignore function. Failing that, use the multi quote function and reply to it in the moans/banter thread.

Thanks. 👊

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evening all ,im still lurking but would like to say a big thank you to all the regular posters who post charts etc .Very good charts today if you like it nice n fresh , Go back 6 weeks or so and these charts would have been Dreamland ,take care all ,cheers 😎

 

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If I may -- it may be too controversial -- there are definite hints that, sooner or later, heat will spread up from the south...once the COOL conditions have petered-out early next week. :oldgood:

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If the NetWx model is to believed, then Sunday AM will feel pretty darn cold, especially if you're heading back from the pub holding a kebab..

1177419022_viewimage(1).thumb.png.9f640b7428bdafa53e99ba49674b892e.png viewimage.thumb.png.c4010f426f88a864ad42b531584a0092.png

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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

If the NetWx model is to believed, then Sunday AM will feel pretty darn cold, especially if you're heading back from the pub holding a kebab..

1177419022_viewimage(1).thumb.png.9f640b7428bdafa53e99ba49674b892e.png viewimage.thumb.png.c4010f426f88a864ad42b531584a0092.png

Yes - which makes ANYWEATHER's point for him, not sure where all the criticism came from tbf, to me i would rather have that and yes it would only feel a bit chilly with a decent coat on, BUT, i am not a normal person in terms of temperature threshold, most people would absolutely hate that, ed stone, atlantic252 to mention a couple.

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Nothing really warm at all from the 18z,the really warm air staying bottled up to the south, and deep in fi there are signs of another cold surge from the North! I'm still not convinced much warmer conditions are on the way, Contrary to how much its being mentioned on here! The jury is still out! 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - which makes ANYWEATHER's point for him, not sure where all the criticism came from tbf, to me i would rather have that and yes it would only feel a bit chilly with a decent coat on, BUT, i am not a normal person in terms of temperature threshold, most people would absolutely hate that, ed stone, atlantic252 to mention a couple.

Problem is this poster just comes into this thread and makes OTT cold predictions without anything to back up the claims and then just tells everybody not to look at the models because they know better. 

In the Model output thread surely that approach warrants criticism. I could log in every 2 weeks to say there was a notable cold spell coming up. One day I could be right but a broken clock is right twice a day. 

Purposefully misleading people shouldn't go unchallenged. It very much resembles the daily express approach that gets panned. 

7C maxima in April is below average but really isn't exceptional. April 2016s northerly was better and that occurred later in the month! 

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Problem is this poster just comes into this thread and makes OTT cold predictions without anything to back up the claims and then just tells everybody not to look at the models because they know better. 

In the Model output thread surely that approach warrants criticism. I could log in every 2 weeks to say there was a notable cold spell coming up. One day I could be right but a broken clock is right twice a day. 

Purposefully misleading people shouldn't go unchallenged. 

Not referencing his previous posts though - haven;t reference checked his usual accuacy, in this episode he has been close to the mark, a little over exaggerated perhaps but closer than all the heatwave posts.

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Later stages of the FV3 bringing a real plume into the south! We shall see. 

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gfs-1-348 (1).png

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