Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Was attempting to read the thread for the first time in two to three days and well, a few assumptions going on as always it seems.

A lot of posts from numerous people in here over recent days claiming bitter cold, or unseasonal warmth, what will occur around the Easter weekend will probably be the atypical Spring season setup if truth be told.

The weather will deliver what it wants to, but rarely do the charts at t+144 hours (akin to t+12,840 minutes or something like it) verify at the SURFACE anyway, so a lesson to be learned there. So, again, if one is confused as I have been, especially considering I haven't seen a long-ranger on the BBC either, I'll go for my assumption above or my best guess below.

Cloudy nearer the East coast, best of the sunshine and warmest out West. Several downpours for central, southern and eastern parts initially early to middle of the upcoming working week then drying up and becoming settled away from the far North in the run up to Easter weekend. Cloud amounts for all, UNPREDICTABLE at this range.

Best Wishes

gottolovethisweather

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by gottolovethisweather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello , both models show Blocking to our north east,, Winter has not finished🙄

Keeping close eye on the snow you promised me this week

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Keeping close eye on the snow you promised me this week

Indeed ? Coming soon to you soon 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

That block to our NE has intensified on the runs today so yes a cool chilly feel to the weather over the next week or so but maybe not cold enough for the white stuff,shame this happens quiet regularly out of season

there looks to be a final warming about to take place,not unusual at this time of the year,could spring be on hold?

gfs/gfs/p and gefs

gfsnh-10-288.thumb.png.78af2f5b90e5fe2717fcdee0c5ef8d49.pnggfsnh-10-360.thumb.png.5fd97528f448e4bf7c87e35819867929.pnggensnh-0-7-300.thumb.png.6ece7142033107c71da66ad714ba8fc6.png

Edited by Allseasons-si

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes it's a complete waste of great synoptics, the kind i was hoping for in Jan and then Feb but we ended up with a late Feb heatwave instead..still, if we are looking at strengthening blocking, we could still see winds from more SE'ly which would make a considerable difference to the surface conditions..for the better!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Better 18z - colder air further west - better orientated high and Atlantic troughing at 150.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Better 18z - colder air further west - better orientated high and Atlantic troughing at 150.

Wouldn't get too excited, western areas are still around 0C at the weekend in terms of the 850 hPa temps on this run for the weekend, in sheltered parts of Wales and western England 13-15C would still be very possible in the afternoons in such a setup. 

Need much much colder uppers than that to get anything noteworthy this late on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Mild air really struggling to get a foothold on the 18s, like Feb said, cold air really digging in, and if anything is forcing the milder air backwards! 

Seems to go pair shaped beyond that though. 

gfs-1-162.png

gfs-1-168.png

gfs-1-186.png

Edited by Mattwolves

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Wouldn't get too excited, western areas are still around 0C at the weekend in terms of the 850 hPa temps on this run for the weekend, in sheltered parts of Wales and western England 13-15C would still be very possible in the afternoons in such a setup. 

Need much much colder uppers than that to get anything noteworthy this late on.

Yes true but nothing oppressive though and certainly cool.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And retrograde on 18z looking like it could follow ECM.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes true but nothing oppressive though and certainly 

Not going to be warm that's for sure but shouldn't be too far away from average if GFS is correct

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Scorcher said:

Not going to be warm that's for sure but shouldn't be too far away from average if GFS is correct

Below average for the SE though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Below average for the SE though.

Don't think there will be any Thames streamers or frost fayres in mid April.😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Frosty. said:

Don't think there will be any Thames streamers or frost fayres in mid April.😉

No but could feel raw though, at least thats something.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fv3 further west with the scandi high and also has colder air further west aswell!!gona feel really raw by the weekend!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Very interesting 18z tonight, warmer air not to far away, but look to the North come end of the run, some intense cold pooling going on again, could this coincide with another warming of the strat! 

gfs-1-324.png

Edited by Mattwolves

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No but could feel raw though, at least thats something.

Great! 🙄🙄🙄

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

One of the more significant factors regarding the UK weather over the next few days will be the variation in regional temps with the north and north east coasts very adversely effected. Illustrated here for today and tomorrow

chill.thumb.png.20f64f63e2ba768ffa59ae3268940412.png906737446_chillt.thumb.png.0763c590f4fbdd1b155710e2f3c3247f.png

The NH 500mb profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 sat image

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.7d6217570bcd45c97e7dd2d8c3c740bd.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.0c219458ff03cd47c3c821000521d61d.gifsat.thumb.JPG.6099a827e0a4df615741a3415f4d8cee.JPG

Many parts of the country will have a fine day today but the exceptions will be north east coastal regions where low Stratus will be an issue in the cold easterly as the cold front descends down the North Sea. And it will be cloudy in the area of the warm front across central England and Wales and later the quite high temps will trigger convection with the odd storm possible along the Welsh > Midlands > East Anglia corridor

PPVE89.thumb.gif.0c28254aa90fdce34f4e21beb0a16574.gifcape.thumb.png.690504afe5116ed50beaec42c298f196.png2mtemp_d02_20.thumb.png.5154e0075bf32e49e302cc736c1e531a.png

The thundery showers will continue through the night and move a tad south as well. And some rain will creep into the far south west from the occlusion associated with the low NW of Coruna

PPVG89.thumb.gif.771fc2641961eec4dad584d4d1ae072b.gifr22.thumb.png.ab1da6bc640060c215d6bc7184329cd2.pngr03.thumb.png.7511dce42a8f14468e84d1ffa1385206.pngr07.thumb.png.89e264e98849a43270c416f04b9e65d0.png

The heavy showery rain will continue to effect the south of England through Tuesday but relatively fine elsewhere, with the usual exception, but colder than of late as the cold front makes slow progress south and opening the door to colder air from the east.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.a46a8ddc88825c65c73bb25708288489.gif1040669463_maxt.thumb.png.f9efa2a7ecdff71dbc7b72a0ce790043.pngp09.thumb.png.ac1c40df12f855a0fda0561c445949ff.png

p12.thumb.png.d59a99a5576f8cc34f5ce66c32817dc6.pngp15.thumb.png.bbc986c1dfbe5d21fc6c8d3860cca32d.pngp18.thumb.png.2c348a4bd752143e1aa6029e89eaef3c.png

Still some rain around in the south overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the fronts slowly clear leaving a generally fine day but colder than of late,, particularly down the eastern half of the country, with much the better weather to the west.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.5a0c1db1d32f1d6af91e891fdb08f72d.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.513736efac345aecb501e2b95246f507.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.c4162067b65215f8dfcaca846b7f5355.png

By Thursday changes are afoot upstream with a major storm crossing the Plains all of which appears to trigger amplification downstream in the Atlantic which is now dominated by various low pressure areas whilst the UK resides more or less in a col with a gently onshore easterly. Dry with temps around average but again cooler down the east coast

gfs_z500a_nh_15.thumb.png.31464e8b15a165006a54af982c13ec24.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.c5d26a62f09a3d3dc766f2fa9cb8e11d.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.461c4a3d75b727016bd9591d8a4b171e.png

As the amplification continues through Friday some rapid cyclogenesis takes place along the the eastern flank of the upper trough and the left exit of the jet whilst the UK is under the auspices of the ridge. Thus dry with temp varying around the average

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.f0f68a05c7babad09b33a70802e4425c.pnggfs_uv250_natl_19.thumb.png.4148f1147923e7bdd3150d86b3fbdbe4.png

PPVO89.thumb.gif.56c1def88813e9f335037bed54478460.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.4144193c18904622d5d25c2a30a211ae.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

To continue with the gfs. Over next weekend the high cell consolidates over Scandinavia with a general area of low pressure across Europe as colder air is advected west under the former This results in the UK being dry, perhaps the odd shower in the south, with temps a tad below average but feeling a lot cooler in the stiff easterly wind in the south

gfs_z500_vort_natl_27.thumb.png.9668ff6cee456468421bcf61d29277ca.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_24.thumb.png.4fde94cc385ead229774e7c07b2634b2.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_28.thumb.png.514321313d47e8736e5bcaf0f7b9123c.png

Over the next couple of days the high cell slides a tad south east and the surface wind will veer as low pressure pushes in from the south west, So perhaps quite showery in the south and by now temps near average.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_35.thumb.png.df2ab1ae0dc7d60661707f433129d5c8.png

 

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Please note

For some reason when I download the fax charts from the site I use it doesn't download the charts as indicated and downloads different ones. So art from today's the charts in my post above are the wrong time vis the texts. A compete pain

Hopefully this are the correct charts for Thursday and Friday from another site

1424932086_UKMet_Boden96.thumb.gif.deef36ddada066b84a93113a9da4393f.gif1794017973_UKMet_Boden120.thumb.gif.a754371d3f51bd74c69dbd7aa50dc3f8.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Risk of some heavy showers and thunderstorms later today further s / se.

ukstormrisk.png

00_15_uk2mtmp.png

00_15_precipratec.png

00_15_ukthickness850.png

00_15_ukcape.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The ecm not dissimilar next weekend. High pressure consolidated to the north east, and colder air advected west underneath with a wave away to the south west that has formed on the front trailing west of Ireland down to the Azores. Thus maybe some showery activity along the east coast otherwise dry with temps below average and feeling cold in the south east in the quite strong easterly wind. Over the next 48 hours the quite intense wave tracks north west of Ireland and the associated front pushes into N. Ireland and the south west introducing some light rain. And now, with the surface wind veering, much warmer above average temps, apart from as usual the eastern coastal areas

t156.thumb.png.7b1d8d27917f19910ee1808f555e570d.pngt204.thumb.png.34a34343de85d51cfc05eaf1dc8383e5.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Indeed ? Coming soon to you soon 

getting a snow machine? John dosen't live at massive elevation, only snow this week is for 400m and higher I'd have thought

anyway roll on the SW'lys, even though I've got to wait until late June

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Risk of some heavy showers and thunderstorms later today further s / se.

ukstormrisk.png

00_15_uk2mtmp.png

00_15_precipratec.png

00_15_ukthickness850.png

00_15_ukcape.png

Convective line further south atm, presumably this will drift north later 

04FDBDC8-1227-4A0C-8235-33D3DBFAFD40.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS ends like this:image.thumb.png.3d786d5e5d4c7755f3846a65745c6c36.png

And the FV3's like this: image.thumb.png.9cee31b12eee26f366a912abb61400e9.png

So not all that great really, but the GFS does hint at something 'interesting'...?

The GEFS ensemble:  image.thumb.png.47e94a8a6a0c81aa4e90fb7ccc35c117.png Op ends as an outlier...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...