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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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And both GEM and GFS going for the warmup, T144, GFS first:

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GEM 12z:

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The honourable member for heat saying no to the cold from the east on this one! 

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That - 20 cold pool off North scandy, may as well be in outer Mongolia for the chance it's got of getting here! Gfs 12z has basically a decaying cold pool.... And if +7-8c floats ya boat at this time of the year.... Then fairplay to you! 

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Usually that would mean naff all as far as the uk is concerned..should this occasion be any different?..it's been fools gold for the last 5 months and now I'm hoping for some sustained spring warmth.

As Matt said basically😉

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Ode to a Scandi High: You're great in January and good in June; but, when it comes to April-time, you'd better sod-off soon! :oldgood:

image.thumb.png.34d4cef3561d3f721b75355984303137.png image.thumb.png.ed1a49b8bc06967f550c8b00b663dc95.png 

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Ode to a Scandi High: You're great in January and good in June; but, when it comes to April-time, you'd better sod-off soon! :oldgood:

image.thumb.png.34d4cef3561d3f721b75355984303137.png image.thumb.png.ed1a49b8bc06967f550c8b00b663dc95.png 

Aye but in January the Atlantic would power through, April to June the continental air will win

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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye but in January the Atlantic would power through, April to June the continental air will win

The atlantic will power through when there is continuous cold pooling out of the states, and know heights over Greenland! Let's hope low solar minimum will aid in a much weakened jet come next winter! 

Edited by Mattwolves

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You may have heard of a movie called the long good friday but have you heard of the warm good friday?..the Gfs 12z operational has!!😜

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The jet stream always looks a bit demonic, but at T252 on the GFS 12z it is heading not in our direction necessarily, but none the less the eyes leaving the US are a metaphor perhaps

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Another burst of potential -- and, this time, the European Anticyclone is doing a 'dying tadpole'!

image.thumb.png.f9d9241bd5bf655e90be2cdbed3e81cf.pngimage.thumb.png.73e30b116b65d4dc07ac6e2a1383e9fa.png  Bon riddance!:yahoo:

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FV3 12z not the only model to draw up a southerly, here at T156:

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And this ones supposed to have a cold bias!  Not that that I have ever bought into that, it seems to verify quite well actually. 

Edited by Mike Poole

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Seriously, why would anyone prefer cool cloudy easterly crap over this!!!!!!!😁

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I think things are now headed towards heat rather than cold, as I have been saying for a while,  latest offerering FV3 12z T210:

image.thumb.jpg.ef9e6b9efba4d865742cf22c6d5f8a1b.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.64f47568275cd0c2aab0238469e29039.jpg

Roll on summer, I'll do a detailed update when the GloSea5 monthly charts are updated sometime next week! 😎

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Although the Gem 12z operational..scrub that I made a mistake..my bad :shok:

Edited by Frosty.

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6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think things are now headed towards heat rather than cold, as I have been saying for a while,  latest offerering FV3 12z T210:

image.thumb.jpg.ef9e6b9efba4d865742cf22c6d5f8a1b.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.64f47568275cd0c2aab0238469e29039.jpg

Roll on summer, I'll do a detailed update when the GloSea5 monthly charts are updated sometime next week! 😎

Heat is all but guaranteed these days.  Cold on the other hand.........

How I wish I was a mild/heat lover, but I never will be!

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FV3 at T288:

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image.thumb.jpg.031ef3148778dc48ef25ac3790240e22.jpg

The thing to note is the ridging from the Azores high, this is what will bring the summer weather many (though not all) want.

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Although the GEFS 12z mean looks a bit green snotty around easter, it's not all bad news!..I will keep an eye on developments as we get nearer if anyone is interested.👍😉

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Edited by Frosty.

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

No warmth from the UKMO ( with maybe Ireland as an exception ) 

Lucky to get North of 8c over England & 4-6c in the ESE

ICON sees another pulse of deep cold hitting Northern Scandi at day 8 - about 6c colder than the last wave... (-20c isotherm)

Yes and no warmth on the GEM 12Z either with a chilly easterly feed developing, think models are now moving towards this theme, orientation of the strong scandy high looks favourable for a chilly easterly developing, rarely warm this early in the Spring.

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18 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Yes and no warmth on the GEM 12Z either with a chilly easterly feed developing, think models are now moving towards this theme, orientation of the strong scandy high looks favourable for a chilly easterly developing, rarely warm this early in the Spring.

ECM the coldest to date - Will feel bitter in the ESE

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Will feel bitter in the ESE

3C257D23-F08F-4339-9747-92F8AB0710BC.thumb.png.d0e6600ed378430a7cf3151bccf1f887.png2083C7ED-63B9-4396-BEDB-23B8FBEC198E.thumb.png.f8fc5af1c9961732e33b7dc55ec9da2d.png

Bitterly disappointing for sure, 7-9c not so good really😉

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM the coldest to date - Will feel bitter in the ESE

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Yep, this one is going down to the wire, ECM T120:

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It's the polar bear from the south at T168 that grabs my attention 

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yikes!

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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Bitterly disappointing for sure, 7-9c not so good really😉

I bet you if that lands I dont get to 4.5c Max.

Windchill ~0c

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On 06/04/2019 at 18:00, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Still confident this E'ly will come off, hope models don't flip tomorrow to E'ly

Aye, was right again, the model runs of the other day were way off, knew the Atlantic wouldn't get through

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I bet you if that lands I dont get to 4.5c Max.

Windchill ~0c

Yes Steve but it's still rubbish compared to if we had this in winter, or even a month ago.. I've lost interest in it now.

Edited by Frosty.

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I bet you if that lands I dont get to 4.5c Max.

Windchill ~0c

Corker - TBH though Steve i doubt it will verify though unfortunately now, eps awaited but support from GEFS lessening with every run.

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