Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Frosty.]

P12 looks nice!

[Methuselah]

This just doesn't look right, to me. Could it be the FV3's legendary cold bias, at work?

 

[Frosty.]

What a tease..strong retrogression signal..come back in winter damn you!!

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What a tease..strong retrogression signal..come back in winter damn you!!

Aye indeed...Definitely one for the Express!

Not showing at all, on the GEFS 06Z mean - even for Aberdeen!

[Frosty.]

One thing I noticed about the longer term GEFS 6z mean Ed is that it looks more unsettled around Easter than the 00z..too much green snot for my liking...hope the high pressure signal returns.

Edited April 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

GEM 0z shows good promise of a warm settled spell at T240:

So as we await the 12s, the question seems to be south of easterly or north of easterly, makes a big difference at this time of year.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Remarkably I've just viewed the CFS operational run out to the final 3rd of May, and it has not put us in one really warm spell, warm air staying to the South and SE constantly! Let's just hope its completely off the mark! Anyway enjoy the rest of ya days folks it's glorious today out there in the midlands! Big game to watch now.

Edited April 7, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Remarkably I've just viewed the CFS operational run out to the final 3rd of May, and it has not put us in one really warm spell, warm air staying to the South and SE constantly! 

That's completely at odds with exeter and their GloSea5 etc..etc.. weak signals, low confidence blah blah

Edited April 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That's completely at odds with exeter and their GloSea5 etc..etc.. weak signals, low confidence blah blah

That's probably why it's weak signals! Perhaps some of the seasonal models do not agree with GLOSEA5. The atlantic has been relatively subdued these past few months, let's hope it doesn't end up suffering with overactive disorder come summer!

[Frosty.]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

That's probably why it's weak signals! Perhaps some of the seasonal models do not agree with GLOSEA5.

Its certainly a good excuse for getting it wrong, just say weak signals and low confidence etc etc...anyway, I'm hoping the 12z continues with the warmer 6z signal.

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That's completely at odds with exeter and their GloSea5 etc..etc.. weak signals, low confidence blah blah

No probs, Karl...It's almost always 'completely at odds with' the weather, too!

Edited April 7, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Mike Poole]

21 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Remarkably I've just viewed the CFS operational run out to the final 3rd of May, and it has not put us in one really warm spell, warm air staying to the South and SE constantly! Let's just hope its completely off the mark! Anyway enjoy the rest of ya days folks it's glorious today out there in the midlands! Big game to watch now.

One CFS run is meaningless, Matt, it needs to be viewed probabilistically, here's the last 8 runs for average Z500 anomalies for May:

So a strong signal for higher than average heights on all runs, most have the high placed favourably, so I think this supports GloSea5, which incidentally should get updated with the April results next week, I think this will tell us a good deal....

My reading of CFS is that it is supportive of a warm settled start to summer 2019.

Edited April 7, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

One CFS run is meaningless, Matt, it needs to be viewed probabilistically, here's the last 8 runs for average Z500 anomalies for May:

So a strong signal for higher than average heights on all runs, most have the high placed favourably, so I think this supports GloSea5, which incidentally should get updated with the April results next week, I think this will tell us a good deal....

Cheers for that Mike, I just tend to quickly view the operational run on a daily basis just to see if its sticking with it, or chopping and changing. Just out of interest Mike, how is the EC 46 looking for something more warmer, not heard it mentioned much lately! 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Cheers for that Mike, I just tend to quickly view the operational run on a daily basis just to see if its sticking with it, or chopping and changing. Just out of interest Mike, how is the EC 46 looking for something more warmer, not heard it mentioned much lately! 

Hi Matt, probably with good reason - the ECM 46 has been told to stand in the corner after its appalling performance in the winter.

Seriously though, it's not a model that I have access to, so I don't comment on it unless others post charts from it here.  

[knocker]

The high res sat mage showing that cloud was an issue to today, with a fair amount of light rain and mist around with the temps depressed accordingly.The low cloud failed to clear down here as well

.

[Mike Poole]

ICON 12z firmly in the camp of the heat seekers over the white walkers, with this at T180:

lets see see what the other models tell us...

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 12z firmly in the camp of the heat seekers over the white walkers, with this at T180:

lets see see what the other models tell us...

Follows this mornings ecm!!over to the ukmo!!!

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 12z firmly in the camp of the heat seekers over the white walkers

Indeed mike, much better weather south of the wall..stay clear of Westeros

Edited April 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Tomorrow's weather looks like being quite good, as far as NW Wales, NW England and the Scottish Riviera are concerned?

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational tomorrow..for many...  das wetter ist gut Ja

[Mike Poole]

UKMO 12z at T120:

And at T144:

850s not out yet but the model is definitely going down the warm  route! 

Edit: 850s now out, here T144:

Edited April 7, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Indeed mike, ukmo 12h towards T+144 hours becoming less cool with more of a southerly element further west gradually mixing out the cool easterly feed.

Edited April 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[SMU]

No warmth from the UKMO ( with maybe Ireland as an exception ) 

Lucky to get North of 8c over England & 4-6c in the ESE

ICON sees another pulse of deep cold hitting Northern Scandi at day 8 - about 6c colder than the last wave... (-20c isotherm)

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No warmth from the UKMO ( with maybe Ireland as an exception ) 

Lucky to get North of 8c over England & 4-6c in the ESE

ICON sees another pulse of deep cold hitting Northern Scandi at day 8 - about 6c colder than the last wave... (-20c isotherm)

Yup steve no warmth as far as i can see on the ukmo!!the scandi high looks even stronger at 144 hours than it did this morning aswell on the 00z run!!scandi high looks further west on gfs 12z so far!!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON sees another pulse of deep cold hitting Northern Scandi at day 8 - about 6c colder than the last wave... (-20c isotherm)

Usually that would mean naff all as far as the uk is concerned..should this occasion be any different?..it's been fools gold for the last 5 months and now I'm hoping for some sustained spring warmth.