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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Could this be the first proper Arctic Northerly to verify in the last six months?..if it was winter, no chance but in early May i 'm sure this one from the ukmo 12h probably will!!!

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Could this be the first proper Arctic Northerly to verify in the last six months?..if it was winter, no chance but in early May i 'm sure this one from the ukmo 12h probably will!!!

Well, those charts are not too far out.  Would be typical if they did come off now!!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Don said:

Well, those charts are not too far out.  Would be typical if they did come off now!!

Was waiting patiently all winter for a Northerly like the ukmo 12h is showing..and then march..then april..I think our climate has a twisted sense of humour.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
Just now, Frosty. said:

Was waiting patiently all winter for a Northerly like the ukmo 12h is showing..and then march..then april..I think our climate has a twisted sense of humour.

Twisted?!  More like evil!!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Potent..by early May standards!:cold:

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UW144-21.gif

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Leo97t Aficionado

Leo97t

Posted
Posted

Oh dear things have rather taken a turn for the worse. Looking poor isn't it but I expect to see some improvements in the output and downgrades in the potency before we get to the weekend. Maybe thats just wishful thinking. Cold weather past April makes me feel so depressed! Awful

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Nae problem!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Not sure what the worry issue is with the northerly blast, these things happen in mid Spring.  The models look good for the bank holiday weekend on the 12z suite, here ICON, GFS and GEM at T180:

 

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Lets get this next weekend out of the way before worrying about what happens next....

But.  Couldn't resist.  The GEM at T210 in plume territory:

image.thumb.jpg.fa6532200e00ceacc6bcdd3b60212ff7.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
35 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not sure what the worry issue is with the northerly blast, these things happen in mid Spring.  The models look good for the bank holiday weekend on the 12z suite, here ICON, GFS and GEM at T180:

Lets get this next weekend out of the way before worrying about what happens next....

But.  Couldn't resist.  The GEM at T210 in plume territory:

image.thumb.jpg.fa6532200e00ceacc6bcdd3b60212ff7.jpg

My sentiments exactly Mike, there is a blink and you will miss it Nthly, and some seem to think winter is returning!!! Like you have stated well in your post, things to me are looking good for the bank holiday and temps should be going in the right direction in time.... Nthly...... Tut, tut, tut

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

 

 

Just now, Mattwolves said:

there is a blink and you will miss it Nthly, 

Nothing new there and I'm sure it will be the same in 9 months time.......

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Phew, not a scorcher! image.thumb.png.380bb2e96760948bdb6f96779f9937dc.pngimage.thumb.png.f1aaa9a272d62b523c3d12daa73a4215.png

Gordon Bennett!         image.thumb.png.125b7ca62c4c86f41bdff3bed719b9fb.pngimage.thumb.png.0969987b03c41f7bad441744488d3aa4.png:shok:

All is forgiven!             image.thumb.png.9171881aa4dd4b20ad386a3fcd0afed9.pngimage.thumb.png.068eb6ffd7c772753bf17d1ee28eb950.png:yahoo:

Edited by Ed Stone
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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Phew, not a scorcher! image.thumb.png.380bb2e96760948bdb6f96779f9937dc.pngimage.thumb.png.f1aaa9a272d62b523c3d12daa73a4215.png

Gordon Bennett!         image.thumb.png.125b7ca62c4c86f41bdff3bed719b9fb.pngimage.thumb.png.0969987b03c41f7bad441744488d3aa4.png:shok:

All is forgiven!             image.thumb.png.9171881aa4dd4b20ad386a3fcd0afed9.pngimage.thumb.png.068eb6ffd7c772753bf17d1ee28eb950.png:yahoo:

Changeable conditions nowadays?  Incredible!  Something there for every preference, I'd have thought.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The GEFS 12z mean is really bullish about the arctic shot..if this was winter I would be quite excited but not so much in early May!..still it would bring some snow to the hills in scotland / northern england and widespread night frosts for a time..beyond that we get a few days of higher pressure and then a showery trough arrives...longer term there are signs of improvement.

GFSAVGEU12_126_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_246_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Reach for the willy warmer!image.thumb.png.090b75e87b7dbc920c35832e10aa82a6.pngimage.thumb.png.b2975ac3e3e5dffb6165d3ca8db3a639.png

Saved by the ensemble: image.thumb.png.b2ff54c2a413f81664a5bd7eb8b28a92.png That was close!

Edited by Ed Stone
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

ECM flagging up the Ntly well, but like I said it's quickly toppled with heights hopefully building in for the long weekend..... Long term Ntly...... Nahhh.... Here's to a long fine weekend folks... 

ECM1-120.gif

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ECM0-120.gif

ECM1-168.gif

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Very good cross model agreement on an Arctic plunge between thurs / sat..could be some wintry surprises.

Edited by Frosty.
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is also very bullish about an arctic blast, maybe that's not what it actually is in early May but certainly cold for the time of year and some damaging frosts for gardeners and growers to be concerned about, also a risk of snow on higher ground in the north and some heavy showers with hail and thunder quite widely and some strong late spring sunshine..it then settles down, especially further south with temperatures recovering although it looks more changeable longer term. The next two / three days look warm and largely fine with sunny spells...just seen latest tv forecast on BBC and no suggestion of anything unusually cold on the way, temps still into the mid teens celsius on Friday even.

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Edited by Frosty.
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SunnyDazee Contributor

SunnyDazee

Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
Posted
7 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

gfs is still keen on a cold northerly BH weekend following on with an Atlantic onslaught of low pressure that comes and sits over UK for days on end.

Massive shift in the models in the last few days I agree. Still a few producing nice weather, but it’s southern plume vs northernly in the majority of them. I’m not gonna predict the weather anymore, because I’m starting to feel like we’ve got every chance of it being cool. I still don’t think it will be a cool May, I think it’ll be above average but the weather models are turning in that direction. Early to Mid May at least looking very changeable

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

Taking three snapshots of the NH 500mb profile over the short range illustrates very well the change of pattern and the developing headache of the detail over next weekend. Essentially pressure builds over the Arctic as it migrates from the NE Pacific and NW Europe and simultaneously the major troughs in Scandinavia and the western Atlantic develop, squeezing the subtropical high as it ridges adjacent to the UK. The battle of the energy flows in this area will settle the details.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6496000.thumb.png.d9dd4abb66b8fb6c16f668945b264bf2.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6712000.thumb.png.e63679547bd443ee511dc9c297d22501.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6928000.thumb.png.c60041b535fdc94a0bbe559767d9f94b.png

Meanwhile back at the ranch the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UTC UK chart

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Through the morning the mist and patchy fog that can be seen in many areas will clear leaving a mainly sunny and quite warm day. But the patchy rain over south west regions associated with two weakening warm fronts will linger as they edge slowly west.

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The rain will clear during the evening apart from over N. Ireland where it will pep up for a time. Dry everywhere with mist and fog patches forming again by morning. But note the wave forming on the cold front to the west and the latter will bring some showery rain into N. Ireland by dawn

PPVG89.thumb.gif.cda7c68635041df917d543a36d6571fe.gifp23.thumb.png.b28a16dc7116bebf38b1cdb03425f603.pngp06.thumb.png.e72fae9a5a8ce2366b37d9101a5670c7.png

The cold front doesn't move very far east on Tuesday as the wave develops but the showery rain will spread into western Scotland and to a lesser extent NW England and Wales. Elsewhere a sunny and very warm day.

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Overnight and through Weds the front and showery rain will track east across the country albeit still very warm in the south east. but at this stage it is worth noting the trough over N. Scandinavia

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Thursday is a very unsettled and cooler day with showery rain and a cold front associated with the developing trough to the north east is tracking south introducing much colder air

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The cold front clears the south coast during Friday resulting in a day of sunshine and showers with temps below average

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Edited by knocker
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

According to the gfs over the holiday three days the northerly wind will slowly back as the ridge becomes more influential resulting in a period of dry and pretty sunny weather although there may well be some showers in the north and east and perhaps more general rain in the north on Monday. Temps a little below average on Saturday but around average later. But....the detail is still to be decided

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Edited by knocker
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

The ecm not dissimilar to the gfs for the holiday weekend with the trough moving away to the east as the ridge builds from the south west. Essentially dry with sunny intervals with temps a fair bit below average on Saturday but trending up to be near average by Monday

t132.thumb.png.ffe52479bf44750c3a4501e5cfd44c17.pngt156.thumb.png.69687de67b066c7fabd10237e84f4952.pngt180.thumb.png.95996906ae97cfd91a802a8ac92dfb34.png

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