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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
21 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I can see the next two months being unbelievably warm and dry and sunny. Loads to look foward to 

Way too early to say there's loads to look forward to..it's encouraging but it's too early to celebrate!

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good Evening!  It never ceases to amaze me the British weather Summer last weekend , Winter this weekend!   The upcoming week looses the strong winds but cold uppers and a slack area of pressure. Means one thing Convective  skies , slow moving Thunderstorms,  and cold clear nights leading to some frosts  The Bank holiday weekend is still very uncertain....

h850t850eu-7.png

ecmt850.096.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
7 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening!  It never ceases to amaze me the British weather Summer last weekend , Winter this weekend!   The upcoming week looses the strong winds but cold uppers and a slack area of pressure. Means one thing Convective  skies , slow moving Thunderstorms,  and cold clear nights leading to some frosts  The Bank holiday weekend is still very uncertain....

h850t850eu-7.png

ecmt850.096.png

I would say there is a fair chance the bank holiday weather is uncertain, and a  fair chance it will be fair! I reckon icon has the right idea though! 

icon-1-180.png

icon-0-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Hints of the Nino pattern of plume-favourable ridges coming and going, uncertain how quickly and strongly it will establish. A gradual increase in % time under HP over the next few weeks makes a lot of sense. So GFS 12z not a bad guide overall. ECM possibly a little too vigorous with the Atlantic trough (as usual these days).

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Indications from Ensembles that central core heights of ridge development through early May will be perhaps just a tad too far to the west to allow a surge of continental air, hence always at risk of atlantic disturbances invading or making a passing blow to northern parts - a good place to be all the same, but not a pattern conducive to any notable heat for the time being at least.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Love Norwich. Love weather. Love this forum. Looking forward to an eventful summer:  bring on the storms.:oldsmile:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The upcoming pattern change is essentially about high pressure developing over the Arctic leaving the subtropical high struggling to amplify in the vicinity of the UK, trapped between the large trough that has developed in the west/central Atlantic and the one over Scandinavia, associated with the vortex lobe. Put simplistically, will the ridge over the UK resist the energy from the west and keep Atlantic systems at bay?. The answer is probably partially

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6409600.thumb.png.a5cc2e97cc35b8ffd58364bd700b8470.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6841600.thumb.png.e6771448ac1820b8570d7af7570e012f.png

The Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the Camborne sounding

PPVA89.thumb.gif.5e3c575aa77fe389e880ad99e2a8c2c9.gif2019042800.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.3b2ca7da3933f51c46e81dcf5eebfb53.gif

At the moment there is still some rain  around in the south east from the occlusion but that should clear quite quickly, but bits and pieces may linger in the far south east, and it will remain quite cloudy for a while in central and eastern regions but when the cloud does start to dissipate it will be quite warm in places. But thicker cloud from the upper warm front was evident in the west at the beginning of the night and this will be reinforced during the day as the surface front struggles east and patchy rain/drizzle will effect western Scotland, N. Ireland, west Wales and the south west by 1800

PPVE89.thumb.gif.15c0add7cddca4c1c2c916f751bdf572.gif439347604_maxs.thumb.png.5483c0c5f679b1404403499b1330a501.pngp15.thumb.png.1d2b0f80ca1bc6b2491923f29d82357e.png

The patchy rain/drizzle will continue overnight as the front stalls but there may be the odd fog patch in eastern regions under clearer skies

PPVG89.thumb.gif.8d0683b16a731035ffd63ca3223aa03c.gif

Although the warm front is weakening the cloud and patchy rain/drizzle will persist through Monday in Wales, the south west, and possible N. Ireland  whilst the rest of the country will be dry and relatively sunny.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.3a94235ee1d40fd6fb506d48eb5bf7fd.gif76570235_maxm.thumb.png.25bdf47b37fa85a37b1a8a73cac21fa6.pngp14.thumb.png.fb20e3dd23851e2d0930d7dce9eae27e.png

Patchy drizzle in the west eventually clears leaving a generally sunny and quite warm day on Tuesday but a cold front does track across Ireland bringing some more light rain to western parts by late afternoon

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.512d45647e0ca5a719c3cfa530cf305d.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.80073c8f151263723aa9b2e60c052371.gif

1985648282_raintues.thumb.png.7b01f0d1f69379463a8d3d1e8c00f774.png678314517_maxtues.thumb.png.c10b581afba627a95ff9c45a295e37ae.png

The front will continue to move east across the country on Wednesday bringing rain to most areas and a marked west/east temp variation.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.731122af5477d5673ae5dfc7d26c4dad.gif1506411924_rainwed.thumb.png.4e23dd5923d7e1b2f4eaeaa64011b90d.png1937313270_maxwed.thumb.png.ecc62ca9763f15dd698e06d81c98420f.png

And Thursday is really the tale of a N/S split with the latter staying dry and quite warm whilst in the north a shallow wave, that has formed on the fronts trailing west around the ridge, has brought rain and quite a breeze to the north as well as much cooler temps.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.233d3c50dd5dda3a215828bfc4f9c87a.gif1388205292_rainthurs.thumb.png.5ffd71ffb8a1fab70662ab5bc55d99b1.png651065400_maxthurs.thumb.png.dbda2cd754dbaafc692369a33376ffb1.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

From here the upper trough continue to move east across the Atlantic against the quite resilient ridge, with the Scandinavian trough paying quite close attention on Friday, reaching this position by 1800 Monday.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6895600.thumb.png.288c7c706e3a69f467ea6600b7359159.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7165600.thumb.png.8e8a9a96ad0c651c13d1fbeaa5903471.png

On the surface this translates to patchy rain and colder air flooding south on Friday but the trough to the north east moves away resulting in the next three days being dry, albeit with,a complication arriving in the south west on Monday. But this is according to the gfs and not set in stone at this range

1120711382_rainfrid.thumb.png.341df64f259d6789f946d2d752ee261b.png2128295263_rainmon.thumb.png.8569e96ac9b34898b3e4eff874f41c29.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

And just to illustrate the uncertainty next weekend vis the energy distribution. The ecm has much more amplification but with the subtropical high ridging strongly to the west of the UK this brings the trough in the north east > east into play resulting in a cold northerly plunge down the UK over the weekend with temps below average, way below on Saturday. The ridge does nudge east on Monday.

t132.thumb.png.59fabc0fb20461f25707cb514953243d.pngt162.thumb.png.b6d33f8e0f60297178bb05f45dc1162d.pngt186.thumb.png.62da630d318673043bc77b1233869fb9.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The uncertainty over the upcoming weekend from gfs and ecm is quite frankly astonishing.

h850t850eu-8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So, expectations (GFS expectations!) for the upcoming BH have taken a bit of a dive...?

FV3: image.thumb.png.c86672e8ebba45555ee758ad55ae65d4.png image.thumb.png.4da180e7f1a5166a12b4f0c6b2d2027b.png

GFS:image.thumb.png.fd13afa0873f358b505b5ee3cdfdae30.pngimage.thumb.png.7964fe26fa7de97de5c3fa3caeba30a0.png

Not only has the initial threat of a nasty-feeling Arctic blast increased, so has that of LP from the SW; so the fine 'spell' may be somewhat truncated?

GEFS ensembles are nowt special: image.thumb.png.348a0f36fb879c6e9aa95aa514f4746e.png

No rain to speak of, where it's most needed, either: image.thumb.png.0b87bf52f2576ef6b2c3280c57291659.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The temporary amplification of the ecm appears to be linked to  lot of movement in the North Pacific and the consolidation of high pressure over the Arctic before settling down again That is not to say it is correct

t150.thumb.png.6b3d5ebe4c514ea209f79b18356e2ba1.png6-11.thumb.png.00c0e35f08f56767613ae066790dff97.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A very decent Ecm 00z ensemble mean both early and especially later.

EDM1-48.GIF

EDM1-168.GIF

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Weekend not starting too well:image.thumb.png.3d0d9e75e7fe9297e947db9001173678.png                                                                              image.thumb.png.d2cb78fda1310c75f96b2cab1cb93c0a.png

Monday: where have all the yellows gone?  image.thumb.png.0fb7deb38c469fde4d658338368f2502.png                                                                              image.thumb.png.cc2da5644130df7f1cbf92d700b25233.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well not a lot to say about the 6z operational except the end is the best bit.

06_372_mslp500.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A big swing towards a colder bank holiday weekend at the end of the coming week looks like a total contrast to easter when the UK was seeing temps into the 20s

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.881c7a61703c357aa155138abb67b635.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 6z next weekend could still be pleasantly warm and anticyclonic.

GFSP03EU06_156_1.png

GFSP13EU06_156_1.png

GFSP13EU06_180_1.png

GFSP19EU06_180_1.png

GFSP20EU06_180_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The 06Z GEFS ensembles are something to behold. Or not!

Av temp:image.thumb.png.8f82e6e743e18da0ba3314e42225be19.png PPN: image.thumb.png.56a28524f42aa04629787ec552501291.png

Don't venture outside, on May 11!:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Don't venture outside, on May 11!:shok:

I think I'll risk it Ed..nae problem

GFSP19EU06_324_2.png

GFSP19EU06_324_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think I'll risk it Ed..nae problem

GFSP19EU06_324_2.png

GFSP19EU06_324_1.png

Risk it for a Swisket?:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Cfs setting us up for a promising weekend with settled and warmish conditions, pretty much ties in with other senior forecasters predictions. I will take that any day.... Tbh May in general is looking pretty positive especially the mid and final 3rd parts! 

cfs-0-144.png

cfs-0-168.png

cfs-0-192.png

cfs-2-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The clusters certainly have the trough to the NE taking closer order at t144 and less so over the next two days  It's very much a knife edge scenario with the precise position of the amplification of the ridge paramount

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019042800_144.thumb.png.7675070fdf9fb20fa98d6439c46787f2.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019042800_168.thumb.png.510bcf9ecb5aefb0fd4f3f45f71d28c9.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019042800_192.thumb.png.6cb12a40434dea413512ba420bea715d.png

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