Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Frosty.]

Not a bad 6z at all post storm hannah, plenty of fine pleasantly warm weather but still a risk of showers in places although a stronger fine and anticyclonic spell later next week which continues throughout the weekend into early the following week. This is followed by an unsettled blip before high pressure ridges in again.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

35 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And very likely will be...Knowing our luck!

We can't complain really can we Pete! Look at the fine warm weather we have already had since Feb! Perhaps the luck is with us again this coming summer. Fingers crossed for May 6th guys.

[Frosty.]

Looking at various timeframes from the GEFS 6z mean indicates a predominantly pleasant outlook beyond tomorrow, sure a few bumps in the road along the way but decent enough for the time of year.

[Methuselah]

To compare the end of the FV3 with 'dog's breakfast' would be unfair to breakfasts everywhere:

 

Frost 'opportunities' on the GEFS ensemble:  

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

 Frost 'opportunities' on the GEFS ensemble:  

Oh good i love frost..probably why I'm called Frosty

Edited April 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think there is plenty of ridging going on towards mid May, where high pressure sits will be paramount to the temperatures, cool nights are still on the cards. But its good to see that azores high poking its nose in again towards the latter stages.... Nosey sod ain't it!! Oh Jon hammonds look at the month ahead on weather trending is well worth a read has well.

[Frosty.]

The latest CFS indicates some anticyclonic weather in July..caution should be used when viewing this model in that range.

[knocker]

Hannah is expected to track a tad further north so just the latest wind updates for this evening and tonight

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

53 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The latest CFS indicates some anticyclonic weather in July..caution should be used when viewing this model in that range.

Interesting for you if you've not already seen this. Updated every 2 days

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1080&mode=0&carte=0&run=2

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Now if this is the pattern for this fourth coming summer, I will happily take it... 

Edited April 26, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12h indicates further cool showery trough activity next week so a chance of thunderstorms too...followed by a colder and still showery northerly air stream so a risk of night frosts too.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Not liking the look of that naffness, up NNE at all:

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational indicates a battle between high pressure / ridging and green snot next week with the high perhaps winning by a nose..at least across the south later next week.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z operational indicates a battle between high pressure / ridging and green snot next week with the high perhaps winning by a nose..at least across the south later next week.

Saved by the bell?  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

37 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The ukmo 12h indicates further cool showery trough activity next week so a chance of thunderstorms too...followed by a colder and still showery northerly air stream so a risk of night frosts too

Wasn't it the ukmo that was showing significant cold just a few weeks back though! Not to concerned about that Ntly, yes it will be cooler but showers will mainly affect Northern and Eastern parts it looks like a cooler blip to me Karl

[Frosty.]

Indeed Ed, forget the nose, the Gfs 12z operational  shows high pressure is in the ascendancy towards the end of next week, early next week looks decent too, a showery middle and then a better end.

 

 

Edited April 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

And here comes Professor Plume:                                                                                                               

[Methuselah]

The 12Z ends on a high: 

[Frosty.]

Not a bad end to the Gfs 12z operational further south...some nice warm and fine weather on this run.

Ed beat me to it by 1 second

Edited April 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Well it looks, touch MDF, that the warmth is going to win out...FV3 at T+228:

 

[Frosty.]

Not a bad GEFS 12z mean, shown here at various points..there's plenty of ridging and indeed high pressure potential..it's not always settled but it does indicate a decent outlook, especially further south.

 

Edited April 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

The 12Z ends on a high: 

And the FV3 just ends: 

Still frost potential too: 

[Frosty.]

Looking towards mid may there's a lot of cack on the GEFS 12z but also some sweet smelling potential too.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Quite a cold Northerly trying to push south later next week on the Ecm 12z, similar to the ukmo run. Before that, things calm down from sunday and it's a decent start to next week with a ridge in control but then it becomes more unstable / showery from the w / nw and then that arctic air tries to dig south..but fails to reach the south as a building ridge from the southwest / south cuts it off..it then quickly warms up as we scoop up some tropical maritime air ahead of a large atlantic low.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

1800 UTC