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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not making this up, the longer term GEFS 12z is a crud fest, plenty of very cool and unsettled charts towards mid may.

These outputs are in a right mess aren’t they lol. Literally opposites being forecasted in some

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not making this up, the longer term GEFS 12z is a crud fest, plenty of very cool and unsettled charts towards mid may.

Here's the sorry looking mean.

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Fag end of the FV3 isn't great, either:image.thumb.png.8071a6f99ad8b990f0f12e78a7d90bd5.png                                                                                                             image.thumb.png.62450a472049bf9ea4b93a60a8241926.png

The GEFS 12Z ensemble looks a little better than I had feared:image.thumb.png.de8aceee542b039d12f46c5a43c3b239.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs / Gefs keep threatening arctic outbreaks this spring but always in low res, they never survive into high res..since it's nearly may, I hope that form continues!!!

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Thar she blows..   Storm Hannah I mean!:shok:

Temperatures also look very depressed on saturday.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I think the medium term evolution is now starting to take shape and it isn't going to be prolonged heights over Greenland.  ECM 12z last four frames:

image.thumb.jpg.08233512494b4780e1b1f00fc494f0af.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a2d0ada9fe397898aa3c2692cf58dee8.jpg

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Which puts us in a much better position for jet stream north of UK allowing the build of high pressure in UK vicinity going forward.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm going to be careful what I say about the Ecm 12z operational after last evening but I will say this..it ends well...for southern / southeastern uk!!:oldgood:

216_mslp500.png

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The EPS at the same time frame as an earlier post from the gfs output is quite similar

t144an.thumb.png.946ae6e06393876ad585ecfd5c90c2a3.pngt144.thumb.png.d53a0f88e8c2bcc3d4d2f9a12424d795.png

And as we move forward and the Greenland block starts to weaken and the displaced vortex lobe starts to dominate the western Atlantic the subtropical high is freer to ridge north in the vicinity of the UK. Aided and abetted by the vortex and trough Franz Joseph/Scandinavia. So after a rather indeterminate period high pressure may become more influential.( I started to use different terminology there but I gave myself a slap and said, 'get a bloody grip knocker)

5-10.thumb.png.96804196264a938b26eb7f84e0009971.png

Looking into the later period the words 'beginning to dominate  the western Atlantic' may have been prophetic

index.thumb.png.a23e8149134a0ccfe98a41ca3bfc979b.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks generally benign once Storm Hannah has blown through, pressure rises but not enough to stop the risk of showers continuing although there would be plenty of fine weather around..there is then a suggestion of a very blink or miss it Northerly followed by an increasingly decent day 9 / 10 at least across southern uk..some chilly nights too where skies clear but feeling pleasant in the strong late spring sunshine.

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM mean looking really great for the high pressure warm scenario, more so than last night, here T216, T240, notice how the (average) heights over Greenland are cut off between these two charts:

image.thumb.jpg.ecb2abcae0841a17b8b6f60bccdd8932.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b2d18752109aa7943e8505a150e82a3b.jpg

AAM charts from CFS continue to look promising, here:

image.thumb.jpg.1ac09ce0ed225c0072b58ec85b785d54.jpg

Suggests to me another warm spell about the bank holiday weekend then a resurgence of low pressures for a while before rinse and repeat.   @Tamara put it so much better in her earlier post, me, I kind of like to try to boil things down to the gist, this is what I think it is....warm and settled bank holiday weekend, trending unsettled after, then warm and settled....we will see. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

So how does this continue to pan out. Little change on Weds

496418605_euw.thumb.png.7a483cdf91c16968610edc5e2e10553c.png

But develops are taking place upstream on Thursday with the latest ejection from the vortex/trough over N. America is gaining a lot of traction in the western Atlantic and downstream more general showery rain over the UK

22996963_nhth.thumb.png.21558340dd5980a30905c78b894d9afa.png1747755832_euthurs.thumb.png.dbdd69bf9bc85e2bfc7752bafa1197ce.png

By Friday the development upstream continues which facilitates the amplification of the subtropical high just to the west of the UK

1355312225_nhfr.thumb.png.bf32037953765b313cd424fc96532b84.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm has a shallow low crossing the country during the latter half of next week which phases with the major trough to the north east thus the wind veers and a sunny intervals and showery regime ensues And this would introduce much colder with temps below average Just to reiterate - the detail for next week is far from a done deal

wed.thumb.png.9c5c79f23a7588262e2b09588896f70b.pngth.thumb.png.cabcd76862e0207e3849f95e23b003fd.pngfr.thumb.png.c23d0e0f2aa6b1954eab89ea4d1dcf9b.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The latest (00Z) temperature ensemble shows a warm-up come early May; but, the op shifting to the warm end of the pack exaggerates the visual effect:

image.thumb.png.3ca23af77f14f4491db4b65b0477059c.pngimage.thumb.png.a497c3a4effaed7cdb2c823c510b3d51.png   

And the improving temps coincide nicely with an anticipated rise in SLP, for the SE.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

The latest (00Z) temperature ensemble shows a warm-up come early May; but, the op shifting to the warm end of the pack exaggerates the visual effect:

image.thumb.png.3ca23af77f14f4491db4b65b0477059c.pngimage.thumb.png.a497c3a4effaed7cdb2c823c510b3d51.png   

And the improving temps coincide nicely with an anticipated rise in SLP, for the SE.

 

The orange line on the sea level pressure ensemble though. Let’s not be hoping for that I’ve put my winter coat away now

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good morning! If you want a return to warmth then look away now, even though there is a high level of Shannon entropy from the models a trend is a continuation of the rather chilly ,convective weather to go on into early May, another note is frost could turn up anywhere given any lengthy clear spells overnight  so gardeners beware! 

h850t850eu-6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Some signs of improvement beyond day 10 with high pressure largely in control and temps recovering. I'm not having this Ntly lark now, they rarely trouble us or cause to many probs in winter let alone May! And tbh they tend to blow themselves out after a couple of days anyway.. Cloudy cool and miserable here for the last 2 days now..... Ive already had enough of it.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Some signs of improvement beyond day 10 with high pressure largely in control and temps recovering. I'm not having this Ntly lark now, they rarely trouble us or cause to many probs in winter let alone May! And tbh they tend to blow themselves out after a couple of days anyway.. Cloudy cool and miserable here for the last 2 days now..... Ive already had enough of it.... 

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Indeed Matt. It looks as if things will improve early next week. Nowt spectacular, but better than tomorrow's dross!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.4e6158a4d6fc0e6a480a10e56acfd652.pngimage.thumb.png.ac95b8d09d622eceac60edce9e5dfd5b.png 

Though we really could do with some rain!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed Matt. It looks as if things will improve early next week. Nowt spectacular, but better than tomorrow's dross!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.4e6158a4d6fc0e6a480a10e56acfd652.pngimage.thumb.png.ac95b8d09d622eceac60edce9e5dfd5b.png 

Though we really could do with some rain!

Hammered it down here the last couple of days Pete, sun has barely come out, and me tan is on the wane there is a chance of winds from the North later next week with wintry showers to Scotland, but I would hope a fair amount of dry conditions further South... Beyond that, perhaps warming up, I seem to have forgot, its still late April!

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hammered it down here the last couple of days Pete, sun has barely come out, and me tan is on the wane there is a chance of winds from the North later next week with wintry showers to Scotland, but I would hope a fair amount of dry conditions further South... Beyond that, perhaps warming up, I seem to have forgot, its still late April!

Also can confirm it hammered it down here too. Sick of the rain already I can just about put up with it in December and January but not now. I think in Wigan we’ll have a close to average month for rainfall. Hammered it down at the start and ends of the month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Next weekend looking okay -- so long as that HP stays put:

image.thumb.png.73bbaae6cfd66f724743320f879cf39b.pngimage.thumb.png.900c8a595c2bde2d2c2e82cde1fc6a2b.png 

PS: We had just enough rain to wet the pavements, yesterday...

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

6z warms up next week, plenty of ridging, still some showers breaking out but a lot of fine pleasant weather and high pressure stronger later next week..could be worse!

06_129_uk2mtmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

6z warms up next week, plenty of ridging, still some showers breaking out but a lot of fine pleasant weather and high pressure stronger later next week..could be worse!

06_129_uk2mtmp.png

And very likely will be...Knowing our luck!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And the end simply screams potential!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.4a6c6057dd00968331ae651297aa4ffd.pngimage.thumb.png.c064b8eb28692a4743ef7edfd3962512.png :yahoo:

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