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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Better outputs today but the caveat being the trend for high lat blocking remains a strong signal.

GFS still suggesting blocking over Greenland longer term with a scandy trough.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS still suggesting blocking over Greenland longer term with a scandy trough.

Hmmmm I only want that in winter thanks but we never seem to get it.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well, I'm pleasantly pleased by the 12z output so far, from a perspective of potential for warm settled weather taking hold again.  A few snapshots of the output, first T144 with UKMO and GFS:

image.thumb.jpg.8f987a248ed1246eff3665173cb4a1bf.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.712db3ab5b90a91914382382e84d9883.jpg

Both look settled in the main, quite different to the output a couple of days ago.  T180, here's ICON, GFS, GEM, FV3:

image.thumb.jpg.fdf9296aaad597cefb6ce64efe2238e8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.563b743eadc9750783698b87dee59fb4.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.8329834140ed07d885a784e59584f69f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.40aba4feb998dbba3f4959f8d8830aca.jpg

The issue at this timeframe is not so much pressure over the UK, but the draining of heights from Greenland, FV3 shows this, the others less so. 

Moving on to T240, GEM, GFS, FV3:

image.thumb.jpg.0a2184cbb5eff29b850216492cb67a37.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d8db786b0c72dafd7362c6f7831698e5.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.5f50ec5630d9648501abda58ba8bf360.jpg

GFS on it's own here with the heights into Greenland.  Not surprising that the GEFS mean at T240 hedges it's bets:

image.thumb.jpg.c3ca9f6bff401452ce5d7142617d0f3b.jpg

AAM increasing into phase 6 on CFS plot, which should increase likelihood of high pressure in the vicinity of the UK, later orbiting back round:

image.thumb.jpg.f0d77a658153ba513eeb9188da4095a2.jpg

My view is that this unsettled spell will give way to a warmer settled spell in next 10 days, probably iterating between settled and unsettled into May with the unsettled spells getting weaker and weaker into summer...we will see.

 

 

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean there's a big improvement beyond this unsettled blip and even as we head further into May,  things may work out just fine!

GFSAVGEU12_126_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_198_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_264_1.png

GFSP05EU12_360_1.png

GFSP08EU12_360_1.png

GFSP12EU12_360_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Trevithick Day at Camborne on Saturday. I hope the low and the heavy rain and gales nips though quickly and perhaps and improvement in the afternoon. A better day all round on Sunday before the next front associated with the large trough to the north west arrives overnight. And continuing changeable through the first half of the week

t60.thumb.png.bca6033925f3b5a63484faa814edb91a.pngt114.thumb.png.12d93a06677220689b42ff6e7845366f.pngt180.thumb.png.ae55151cd611108a5e332de061bba7e8.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Even the 12z parallel (FV3) joins in the anticyclonic fun!..what a change compared to yesterday's staring down the barrel at a trough fest!!

GFSPARAEU12_102_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_147_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_174_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_198_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_222_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_252_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_300_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
Just now, Frosty. said:

Even the 12z parallel (FV3) joins in the anticyclonic fun!..what a change compared to yesterday's staring down the barrel at a trough fest!!

GFSPARAEU12_102_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_147_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_174_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_198_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_222_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_252_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_300_1.png

I told you Sunday is looking better

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Even the 12z parallel (FV3) joins in the anticyclonic fun!..what a change compared to yesterday's staring down the barrel at a trough fest!!

 

GFSPARAEU12_174_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_198_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_222_1.png

 

 

Oh look, there's the Azores HP butting in again. Bore off you convection killer!

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, SunnyDazee said:

I told you Sunday is looking better

Indeed, and not just sunday

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
Just now, Frosty. said:

Indeed, and not just sunday

Are a lot of the models showing the weather is improving Sunday onwards now? I’ve seen a couple suggesting so, especially May Day weekend. This unsettled spell supposedly lasting 2-3 weeks could last 2-3 days now lol

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh look, there's the Azores HP butting in again. Bore off you convection killer!

I noticed a similar comment from you in the storms thread.  But I don't get it.  To get decent storms you need to stoke the heat, don't you?  So if your preference is storms you would want cycles of heat followed by incursions of low pressure, rinse and repeat  That looks the form horse during May to me.  Other horses are available. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, SunnyDazee said:

Are a lot of the models showing the weather is improving Sunday onwards now? I’ve seen a couple suggesting so, especially May Day weekend. This unsettled spell supposedly lasting 2-3 weeks could last 2-3 days now lol

Soon there will be talk of a drought again lordy lordy...still, it's nice to see this improvement in the mid and longer range..hope I haven't jinxed it now!:crazy:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Soon there will be talk of a drought again lordy lordy...still, it's nice to see this improvement in the mid and longer range..hope I haven't jinxed it now!:crazy:

Get ready for our hosepipe bans next week . I hope you haven’t too however as I’ve said earlier, the long range predictions tend to be much cooler and wetter than when it gets closer. The thunderstorms predicted in Wigan today were more like heavy showers. It was a joke honestly 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM 12z follows the more settled route, here T144, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.2c9eba6e93836b76b5068f26078d69e8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.eb663a5ac728797afbaac60d2ae9ddfd.jpg

The ridge towards the UK strengthening while the Greenland heights slide away with the jet left SW to NE.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z follows the more settled route, here T144, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.2c9eba6e93836b76b5068f26078d69e8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.eb663a5ac728797afbaac60d2ae9ddfd.jpg

The ridge towards the UK strengthening while the Greenland heights slide away with the jet left SW to NE.

I would not call that settled at t198

t198.thumb.png.4be892a65d1007c9c39162a516639a42.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Now that's what I call a happy ending

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
3 minutes ago, knocker said:

I would not call that settled at t198

t198.thumb.png.4be892a65d1007c9c39162a516639a42.png

That doesn’t look settled I agree, the models do look like they’re becoming less unsettled though in general, we’re bound to have some models showing the weather that was originally predicted I think, the trend does suggest more settled though. May Day bank holiday just a couple of days ago was showing temperatures of 12 degrees and low pressure, now suggesting high pressure and 16/17 degrees. It’s one of those we’ll only find out the closer we get

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I would say the Ecm 12z becomes predominantly settled with higher pressure post this unsettled blip, still a few changeable intrusions but then a stellar finish!

ECM0-240.GIF

 

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

The 'carbon copy' of last years weather continues to be simulated in gfs 12 run for next week as the cut off low moves into SE Europe, heights build in from the Azores and 'blocks' the next Atlantic low, so bringing another warm and dry episode for early May, an echo of the Early May 2018 pattern.. ECM 00 ensembles was showing a similar trend.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
8 minutes ago, knocker said:

I would not call that settled at t198

t198.thumb.png.4be892a65d1007c9c39162a516639a42.png

Yes, but it's hardly massively cyclonic, and looks part of a transition, mid way between the charts I posted.  here's the Meteociel T192 for comparison with my earlier post:

image.thumb.jpg.9bfc72894db8bc91d678be569c1c8a7d.jpg

Sorry, I don't have access to a T198 chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, but it's hardly massively cyclonic, and looks part of a transition, mid way between the charts I posted.  here's the Meteociel T192 for comparison with my earlier post:

image.thumb.jpg.9bfc72894db8bc91d678be569c1c8a7d.jpg

Sorry, I don't have access to a T198 chart.

And here's the t192 chart in more detail and I have not mentioned anything about massively cyclonic. Virtually the whole of the ecm run can accurately be described as changeable/unsettled as the pm and tm airmasses phase. It is only the last couple of days when the Azores high becomes more established

t192.thumb.png.abfbb61698660b522e9a07440157ebd5.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Well now this is something to behold. The tropical CCKW is looking to start propagating east even faster and more strongly than the most optimistic model - GFS - was predicting.

This drives +AAM which shifts the N Atlantic - Europe pattern away from the initially more Nina-like pattern of lows sliding NW-SE across the UK on the NE flank of HP staying to our SW and toward a Nino-like one of broad N Atlantic troughs and Euro-Scandinavian ridges that often extend across the UK.

We can’t be sure that the models haven’t over-adjusted like they briefly did with respect to this Wed-Sat, mind. That was at a day’s longer range though so there’s hope to be had!

 

If this Nino-style rebound is successful, then the major HLB pattern should mean the Atlantic trough has a very hard time making progress east into the UK or NW Europe. To set up that pattern at the time when the summer ‘base state’ tends to be set would be... very eyebrow-raising. Last time we did that well was way back in 2003.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There has been a big shift away from prolonged cool cyclonic on the models today..pressure looks higher later this weekend onwards but the finer details will have to wait until nearer the time..good trend today..

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

And here's the t192 chart in more detail and I have not mentioned anything about massively cyclonic. Virtually the whole of the ecm run can be accurately be described as changeable/unsettled as the pm and tm airmasses phase. It is only the last couple of days when the Azores high becomes more established

t192.thumb.png.abfbb61698660b522e9a07440157ebd5.png

I'm not disagreeing with you here either, my original post re the ECM was of a transition to settled and that can be linked back to T144 in my opinion,  and the UKMO might have followed a similar path if we could see it further.  But the detail of one run matters less (to me anyway) as we get to T192 and beyond, and the similarities or dissimilarities with other models become more important, my post re the ECM was a follow on from a more comprehensive round up of the 12z suite I posted earlier, and the direction of travel towards day 10 seems to me still a two way split between the Azores high ridge option as per ECM T240 or the lingering Greenland heights option from GFS at same time, and I know what my money is on.

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