Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[knocker]

Still attempting to pin down where we are going with all of this and the EPS this morning does appear to be more strongly indicating the pattern change it hinted at three days ago.

That is the vortex in the Franz Joseph area with associated trough Scandinavia and a trough in the western Atlantic with the subtropical high ridging north/north west via the UK. This would portend a quiet spell of weather with temps perhaps a tad above average.

Edited April 24, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

The best change, the one that the models agree upon, is the introduction of clean Atlantic air and bright blue skies. Like ANYWEATHER, I will welcome the ousting of the current filthy dust-laden continental air.

[Azazel]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The best change, the one that the models agree upon, is the introduction of clean Atlantic air and bright blue skies. Like ANYWEATHER, I will welcome the ousting of the current filthy dust-laden continental air.

I'll be sad to see it go:(

I see what you mean about dust though, I was driving home last night when it started to rain. I put my wipers on and it smeared dust all over my windshield and for a second or two I couldn't see anything.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

51 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I'll be sad to see it go:(

I see what you mean about dust though, I was driving home last night when it started to rain. I put my wipers on and it smeared dust all over my windshield and for a second or two I couldn't see anything.

 Can't beat a bit of dust in the mix.. Gives that desert feel. I for one will be glad to see the back of the Atlantic conditions, because if weather keeps coming from that direction, it wouldn't be much of a summer! Some signs of improvement beyond mid next week from gfs. 

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Craig84]

Looking for signs of our next bout of settled weather, I’m encouraged by the 0z ECM.

Comparing the 168hrs chart below you can see northern blocking suppressing the jet and associated trough into our area.

The next chart is the 240hrs. You can see by then the northern blocking has evaporated and been replaced by low pressure in the southern Greenland area. The trough has pulled back, getting the jet on a favourable SW-NE axis and allowing the Azores high to ridge in.

 

Backed up by the 240 mean  

 

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by Craig84

[Methuselah]

After holding-up quite well through tomorrow and Friday, temps look like taking a bit of a tumble, come Saturday; the rain will be welcome, however:

 

[Methuselah]

Early next week now looks like being quite good. Would the HP building over Scandinavia be what we should expect to see, were the ENSO long-wave state starting to exert its influence? Over to those that know much more than I do about such matters:

 

[Methuselah]

The end of this morning's 06Z Op suggests good reason for optimism, IMO; in particular, a chance of some lovely long-fetch TM air...Heat and deep-blue skies:

 

[SunnyDazee]

33 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The end of this morning's 06Z Op suggests good reason for optimism, IMO; in particular, a chance of some lovely long-fetch TM air...Heat and deep-blue skies:

 

These models so far this year always seem to become milder and milder when predicting a massive rainfall or storms will occur, is it just me who has noticed this? They backtrack quite often

[Methuselah]

And, just as Those Who Cannot Be Named warn us of an impending hot summer, the FV3 starts to produce some truly wonderful synoptics - at Day 10! Don't mention the winter. I did it once but I think I got away with it!

 

[Frosty.]

I've been keeping an eye..well both eyes actually on the longer term Ecm ensemble mean despite being told i should only go as far as T+120!!..anyway, things are looking up longer term and perhaps mid term!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, SunnyDazee said:

These models so far this year always seem to become milder and milder when predicting a massive rainfall or storms will occur, is it just me who has noticed this? They backtrack quite often

In all honesty I don't think we are gonna be indulging the widespread and big rainfall amounts the recent models have been predicting, for Instance this thundery rain spreading up from the South today, won't be affecting everyone! The East looks pretty good to me. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

49 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The end of this morning's 06Z Op suggests good reason for optimism, IMO; in particular, a chance of some lovely long-fetch TM air...Heat and deep-blue skies:

 

Oh my god Pete, what a chart, stop it your making me dribble! 

[SunnyDazee]

12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

In all honesty I don't think we are gonna be indulging the widespread and big rainfall amounts the recent models have been predicting, for Instance this thundery rain spreading up from the South today, won't be affecting everyone! The East looks pretty good to me. 

Even yesterday, near Manchester it was supposed to be hammering it down right now. Currently it’s sunny and 19 degrees. I wonder if our models are often quite conservative in thinking that there has to be a lot of rain just because we’ve had low rain levels, when actually we only get moderate rainfall and not the massive torrential downpours. 

[Methuselah]

The end is okay, too -- it's a bit reminiscent of some previous gooduns:

 

Not so sure about the 00Z ensemble though: 

PS: COME ON YOU WOLVES!

Edited April 24, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

Much better GEFS 6z mean than the last time I looked yesterday both next week and longer term!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, SunnyDazee said:

Even yesterday, near Manchester it was supposed to be hammering it down right now. Currently it’s sunny and 19 degrees. I wonder if our models are often quite conservative in thinking that there has to be a lot of rain just because we’ve had low rain levels, when actually we only get moderate rainfall and not the massive torrential downpours. 

Yes good point, I recall in the summer of 95 a breakdown being forecast with a fair bit of rain due to low pressure being in charge.... And basically temps got a bit more suppressed and it remained largely cloudy and dry... I remember the forecaster Charlie Neil at the time saying, things aren't to bad at all considering we have low pressure in control! I still think this so called unsettled spell is gonna be very brief, certainly not long enough to keep the rain brigade happy. 

And just has I posted that I  noticed a batch of heavy rain knocking at door here!! Typical!!!!

Edited April 24, 2019 by Mattwolves

[SunnyDazee]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes good point, I recall in the summer of 95 a breakdown being forecast with a fair bit of rain due to low pressure being in charge.... And basically temps got a bit more suppressed and it remained largely cloudy and dry... I remember the forecaster Charlie Neil at the time saying, things aren't to bad at all considering we have low pressure in control! I still think this so called unsettled spell is gonna be very brief, certainly not long enough to keep the rain brigade happy. 

Absolutely, I agree there. I’ve looked at my forecast for the next 10 days, all of them were rainy just a couple of days ago, now Sunday is supposed to be warming up, that’s 3/4 days rain and not the downpours that were earlier anticipated. Similarly to how our winter was predicted to be freezing due to the long warm summer and Indian summer we experienced last year, when in reality apart from a week or two it was reasonably mild. I still think we’ll get a good amount of rain, but I’m doubtful of thunderstorms and I’m doubtful about how long it will last. This weekend we’ll be able to tell although next week looks better for me, temps possibly up to 18-19 degrees again

[Frosty.]

There's a lot more support for high pressure and warmth in the mid / longer term than there was yesterday. If anything like this verifies there's plenty more summery weather to look forward to well before we even reach summer!!!!!!

[Methuselah]

Tomorrow looks very good for convection, I must say!

 

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12h shows this unsettled weather being a blip..improving picture.

[Methuselah]

Indeed Karl. The GFS looks much more settled, early next week, than have many previous runs:

 

[Methuselah]

Next Thursday, and things are still looking good (IMO, 'good' means anything that offers sunshine, warmth and/or thunderstorms):

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

31 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The ukmo 12h shows this unsettled weather being a blip..improving picture.

Looks like the UKMO is falling more in line with the GFS building High Pressure over Scandinavia early next week and stopping that Low Pressure breaking through further East! 

Certainly though some further convective opportunities to look forward to beforehand, with storms and showers partying over the UK! ⛈

Edited April 24, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[Frosty.]

What's the word I'm looking for..erm..ah yes..PLEASANT!!