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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

May starts very cool, cyclonic and showery according to the 6z operational 

06_192_mslp500.png

But not likely to produce record-breaking cold and snow, however:

image.thumb.png.612042e3015b9d759299693db99a103d.pngimage.thumb.png.c00a3439bbecb7fea0bbf609a806d2ac.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the 6z operational i don't think lack of water will be an issue

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The FV3 is hardly shaping-up in the way many might like, either...?:shok:

image.thumb.png.11ac726299f2866c4119ff8645d57042.pngimage.thumb.png.2ceafeeeec27908bd4f07efdce67f65c.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Whoa I would like some of what the 6z para is drinking!!:drunk:

GFSPARAEU06_348_1.png

GFSPARAEU06_348_2.png

GFSPARAEU06_372_1.png

GFSPARAEU06_372_2.png

GFSPARAEU06_372_17.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the longer term GEFS 6z I found this beauty..trying to stay positive and all..the parallel also had a happy ending as I showed above.

9_372_850tmp.png

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9_372_2mtmpmax.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not a bad finish. But, is it real or is it a flash-in-the-pan? Whatever it is, I'm yet to be convinced of the importance of the ENSO long-wave pattern thingie...Only time will tell?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.9b010fac99721fbf1b4fc85fb013b162.pngimage.thumb.png.41fa74a54f5859b79fde76afcff53163.png

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I don't think things have changed much overnight, plenty of rain and showers and wind over the coming days, but I still think pressure will build beyond the 1st week of May and become warmer.... Could it even be cold enough for wintry showers over Northern hills this weekend, early next week!!! I've got a feeling in me water though that once again come next bank holiday, we will be in a similar scenario to the one we have just encountered!! Long way off but its feasible. Until then get your cameras ready for some potential thundery activity.

original.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the 6z operational there's certainly a chance of thunderstorms at times for the rest of this week and even some snow for northern hills and mountains from time to time.

ukstormrisk.png

ukcapeli.png

ukcapeli (1).png

ukstormrisk (1).png

uksnowrisk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the 6z FV3 there's an even greater risk of snow on saturday!:shok:❄️

uksnowrisk.png

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ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
38 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I don't think things have changed much overnight, plenty of rain and showers and wind over the coming days, but I still think pressure will build beyond the 1st week of May and become warmer.... Could it even be cold enough for wintry showers over Northern hills this weekend, early next week!!! I've got a feeling in me water though that once again come next bank holiday, we will be in a similar scenario to the one we have just encountered!! Long way off but its feasible. Until then get your cameras ready for some potential thundery activity.

original.gif

Agreed with this again. Is the met office contingency planner down for you? They could be adding the 3 month outlook today https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the longer term GEFS 6z I found this beauty..trying to stay positive and all..the parallel also had a happy ending as I showed above.

9_372_850tmp.png

9_378_500mb.png

9_372_2mtmpmax.png

As I predicted, as we head towards mid May the weather looks to be getting towards permanent summer mode

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, SunnyDazee said:

As I predicted, as we head towards mid May the weather looks to be getting towards permanent summer mode

It currently has very little support on the GEFS but like a little acorn i hope it grows into a mighty oak.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
28 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It currently has very little support on the GEFS but like a little acorn i hope it grows into a mighty oak.

Signs that 2nd and 3rd week of May are looking warmer and dryer than average are slightly starting to occur. Data is scarce but there’s warmer temperatures on the North Sea and in France. I think we’ll probably get some warmer weather come mid May just like last year. This weather has been rather like last year so far, almost a carbon copy. We might not have had the beast from the east as such but there were a few consecutive days in January and February where temps didn’t rise above 0 degrees and it was snowing, which was essentially the same conditions as beast from the east here in the west.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
57 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It currently has very little support on the GEFS but like a little acorn i hope it grows into a mighty oak.

Tbh Karl I don't think some of the main senior forecasters take to much notice of the 6z and 18z runs, apperantly they have the least amount of data input, and also worth noting that the Americans pay more attention to the ECM than the GFS! In all honesty I think the CFS will sniff out a pattern change better than the GFS. I think it just goes from one extreme to the other! Has for the FV3 the less said, the better. Not sure if you agree, but that's my take on it.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

After a fine morning Cs and Ac have now encroached as the trough and cold front creep closer from the south west (midday sat and sounding)

modis.thumb.JPG.0bc3dc27fbfde2fe98897d009adf449f.JPG2019042312.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.87c193c06d1bd9e706934c53882271a2.gif

PPVA89.thumb.gif.72ba439337d0dffd2b2d58a9e3d20624.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.2006f4ecee9ae3835fd45e10f471001a.gif

The showery rain will arrive in the far south west by early evening and move slowly north east, and with increasing intensity, overnight and through tomorrow morning.

r19.thumb.png.65496866129977e10febef2830cc2cc3.pngr00.thumb.png.f3b13134cc890b29fada6238241388b9.pngr07.thumb.png.fa374f369ca6cce9c68714713bb736a8.pngr12.thumb.png.f04aed8a557f3b69dc038d8fb27b1e51.png

Not without interest watching the temp progression tomorrow morning as the fronts track north east and the wind backs over the North Sea

w06.thumb.png.fa8c8dc9899e36c953a3d0606f229678.pngw09.thumb.png.b480224c9541d42acf07e4b2da67c924.pngw12.thumb.png.152f8e4c20cb0fb1749c5bc3ef27a8f4.png

t06.thumb.png.4a2dc6de9725bad460e5a8c2262885a0.pngt09.thumb.png.d4d5f75c90f99ccba2fd11daf0c01154.pngt12.thumb.png.4a7ea767ecc9a12ef8c79d779413a771.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What a stinker! image.thumb.png.4f23e6f0a8c32e0026546960f6a60f04.png image.thumb.png.67dcc69652d05a540d1b983072a01d70.png:oldgrin:

It's a stonker for ducks though

We are still on course for a brief window of better weather on sunday which may possibly last through next monday due to weak height rises from the south pushing across the s / se.

 

 

UW120-21.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Monday's nae looking all that bad, now?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.4e6e020b9b22a0ddf35d64b080c7b6ce.pngimage.thumb.png.7651dd1f43ccf4017a767742e43b86f5.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Some very welcome rain tomoz and a few flashes and bangs around too..

ukstormrisk.png

ukstormrisk (1).png

ukcapeli.png

ukprec.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Some very welcome rain tomoz and a few flashes and bangs around too..

ukstormrisk.png

ukstormrisk (1).png

ukcapeli.png

ukprec.png

Looks like there could be plenty more too, come next Thursday...maybe even some very localised Killer Cape!?️:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.452c67e193d1751f0b035be40ca5f0e6.pngimage.thumb.png.8fe4731444f1fa4a20f31746947e15c6.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Not an ideal position for the jetstream in early may..☔

hgt300.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

But the end shows some promise, of better things to come? If one squints hard enough!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.f4cdb240c0951279f96ed2ab7bc97b07.pngimage.thumb.png.7343482abc32ca7a046bbe70a6a06417.png 

Ensemble's stuck on 00Z!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But the end shows some promise, of better things to come? If one squints hard enough!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.f4cdb240c0951279f96ed2ab7bc97b07.pngimage.thumb.png.7343482abc32ca7a046bbe70a6a06417.png 

Ensemble's stuck on 00Z!

If you look at those charts upside down it looks even better

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 12z para is firing on all cylinders with its outrageously cold bias again..:cold:

GFSPARAEU12_360_2.png

GFSPARAEU12_372_17.png

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