Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Frosty.]

This just gives us a flavour of what that improved extended GEFS 12z mean might represent in early May...plus the operational. 

[Methuselah]

The FV3 could have ended a wee bit better? Or a lot worse!

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes guys, I think improvements can be seen on ukmo and the gfs 12z, like I said a shortish unsettled blip is on the way... Should help ease any water fears, because I feel dry weather over the coming months will be a plenty. Don't need to post any charts has Pete and Karl have already covered it... Short term thundery downpours look a good call followed by a rather wet and showery weekend... Beyond that... Hints of improvement. Enjoy the potential storms folks, and a big respect and thumbs up to the mods for bringing back the laughing icon.. 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The FV3 could have ended a wee bit better? Or a lot worse!

 

 

Yeah I was wondering whether to post that a bit earlier but decided not to..can't think why.

[Cheshire Freeze]

45 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking longer term the GEFS 12z mean is much better isn't it folks.

Depends how one defines 'better'.

Personally I'm sick of seeing the Azores HP constantly nose in from the SW, sending the NAO +ve

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Depends how one defines 'better'.

Personally I'm sick of seeing the Azores HP constantly nose in from the SW, sending the NAO +ve

Doesn't most of our decent warm settled weather start with the azores high nosing in?..I hope we see plenty of the azores high making stronger pushes NE through the uk in the months ahead, it will be a good summer if that happens.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Doesn't most of our decent warm settled weather start with the azores high nosing in?..I hope we see plenty of the azores high making stronger pushes NE through the uk in the months ahead, it will be a good summer if that happens.

Exactly. 

Would be nice to see some actual disturbed weather this summer, rather than endless days of blue sky and sun. Summer is the time of year where we have the most latent energy available to us in order to see some storms. Please let's have some this year...

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Exactly. 

Would be nice to see some actual disturbed weather this summer, rather than endless days of blue sky and sun. Summer is the time of year where we have the most latent energy available to us in order to see some storms. Please let's have some this year...

I love plume events, hope we see some but also plenty of high pressure..anyway, big changes afoot with some welcome rain to put out those moorland fires and give our gardens a good drink.

[Mike Poole]

Not had much time to view the models over the weekend, but if the gist was to suggest a more prolonged unsettled spell, then I think the backtrack from that is underway on the 12z suite.  Yes, an unsettled week ahead with some storms on Wednesday, but I think a trend back to high pressure is the form horse going forward. How that happens is not quite clear, models in a bit of a mess at T192, here ECM, GEM, GFS and FV3:

Odd mix of a push from the Azores and some high latitude blocking, with some low pressure areas sandwiched between, I don't think the models have this right yet, get the thundery breakdown done with mid week and by then the path forward should become clearer.

Edited April 22, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

Even the GEFS 12Z ensemble is coming-out in heat bumps!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 12z..not so much heat bumps but certainly back to earth with an almighty bump springs to mind.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

56 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes guys, I think improvements can be seen on ukmo and the gfs 12z, like I said a shortish unsettled blip is on the way... Should help ease any water fears, because I feel dry weather over the coming months will be a plenty. Don't need to post any charts has Pete and Karl have already covered it... Short term thundery downpours look a good call followed by a rather wet and showery weekend... Beyond that... Hints of improvement. Enjoy the potential storms folks, and a big respect and thumbs up to the mods for bringing back the laughing icon.. 

 

Oh yes , the laughing face icon, for you to use when the pessimistics spot a bit of trough in a lookalike 2018 style pattern. But it does look like some payback weather is on cards and waiting in the wings with the low pressure over the UK before painfully slowly drifting east allowing a northerly blocking episode to open the door to a chilly N'ly.

[Frosty.]

Dare I say hints of an improvement from the south at T+240 hours

Edited April 22, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

In other news, the final warming in the stratosphere is imminent, here zonal winds 60N 10hpa:

Next day or two, welcome to summer!  

And CFS plots of AAM show an orbit through phase 6 of the GWO, likely repeating, which would at this time of year suggest increasing likelihood of high pressure in UK area.

It is looking a lot like last year...taking the model output and background signals together.  One thing to watch for is the Met Office contingency planners forecast, should be out next week, last month had a 45% chance of the hottest quintile, but this month raw GloSea5 output backed off to about 30%, CFS didn't, will be interesting to see what the experts make of this as summer floats a month nearer.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z indicates a window of better weather on sunday into the start of next week and ends with the azores high / ridge poised to deliver a knock out blow to the filling in-situ trough!

Edited April 22, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

So some welcome rain for some to come beyond Wednesday, out to day 7, I'm seeing signs of improvement and a gradual warming, ECM perhaps flagging this up tonight, so another cracker tomorrow and then perhaps the heavens open up for a while, never overly cold though..... Ntly!!!! Forget it.... They've got no bite in winter, let alone may!

I'm sure the rain is gonna cheer a few on here up.... 

[SunnyDazee]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So some welcome rain for some to come beyond Wednesday, out to day 7, I'm seeing signs of improvement and a gradual warming, ECM perhaps flagging this up tonight, so another cracker tomorrow and then perhaps the heavens open up for a while, never overly cold though..... Ntly!!!! Forget it.... They've got no bite in winter, let alone may!

I'm sure the rain is gonna cheer a few on here up.... 

I agree with everything you’ve said. The early signs for summer is May will be warm, June boiling hot, July warm-hot and it’ll be quite similar to last year. The next 2-3 weeks will probably (touch wood) be the final wet and cool extended spells for a good few months. With August September and October looking warmer than average, albeit August slightly wetter, it certainly follows the blueprint of many good summers, like last year and 1995. Not sure how hot July will be yet so not quite 1976 levels, but doesn’t at this stage look 2007 or 2012 like

[Mike Poole]

I normally post northern hemisphere plots in the winter, but it is of interest to see what the ECM mean makes of things at T192 to compare with the op charts I posted at same time earlier, mean, spread:

Other than what we know about next week I can't see much coming off the Atlantic from that.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, SunnyDazee said:

I agree with everything you’ve said. The early signs for summer is May will be warm, June boiling hot, July warm-hot and it’ll be quite similar to last year. The next 2-3 weeks will probably (touch wood) be the final wet and cool extended spells for a good few months. With August September and October looking warmer than average, albeit August slightly wetter, it certainly follows the blueprint of many good summers, like last year and 1995. Not sure how hot July will be yet so not quite 1976 levels, but doesn’t at this stage look 2007 or 2012 like

First time I've seen you post... But I like you already some good points made and tbh I was sceptical of this summer originally, but now I'm feeling more confident of something quite special again. The coming weeks rain could soon become a distant blip... Not everyones cup of tea I no, but perhaps its something we are gonna have to get used to over the coming years.

[Frosty.]

Is troughy even a word?..anyway that's what the Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows at T+240 hours but at least showing signs of filling by then!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Is troughy even a word?..anyway that's what the Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows at T+240 hours but at least showing signs of filling by then!

I thought the same Karl... It looks a less intense low to earlier frames and it's filling quicker than a skip at a dodgy car boot sale.

[SunnyDazee]

17 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

First time I've seen you post... But I like you already some good points made and tbh I was sceptical of this summer originally, but now I'm feeling more confident of something quite special again. The coming weeks rain could soon become a distant blip... Not everyones cup of tea I no, but perhaps its something we are gonna have to get used to over the coming years.

Thanks a lot! I’m new, only joined 2 or so weeks ago as I wanted to learn more about the weather as it’s something I’ve always lived with day by day not really caring about it, however this changed at the end of 2018 and I’ve been making myself familiar with all the terms used and being on this site with great people always helps. To add to my point, the latest met office contingency planner, long range sea temperatures, the French met office, the Icelandic met office, CFS (which is slated but of recently has been highly accurate) all indicate above average temperatures for the coming months. The next Met Office contingency is due in the next couple of days, bare in mind the last had the weather being in the top category at 45%, last year it was at 40%. So if it drops down slightly to 35% or 40%, it could look less likely on the surface, but be more accurate as it’s been shown over the last several months indicating consistency. 5% chance it being in the coldest category (similarly to 2007 and 2012 level coolness) you can essentially take as 0, since they can never place it as 0% as there’s always a chance. However it’s also saying that drier weather is more likely than wetter weather too. All in all positive signs (so far, again touch wood) for us who are Solarphiles rather than Solarphobes

Edited April 22, 2019 by SunnyDazee

[ANYWEATHER]

looking at the model output , chilly, very unsettled conditions ahead, but before that some Violent Thunderstorms in the next few days...Flash flooding for some

Edited April 22, 2019 by Mapantz

[Mapantz]

16 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

looking at the model output , chilly, very unsettled conditions ahead, but before that some Violent Thunderstorms in the next few days...Flash flooding for some

Could you elaborate?

I see nothing pointing towards 'violent' 

CAPE values look extreme in some parts, but one convective factor doesn't paint the full picture.

[knocker]

There is quite a lot going on as the strat bows out and this evenings EPS mean anomalies are sticking to the  evolution discussed in previous posts.

By the time of the medium period the block to the north east of the UK has migrated west to form a high cell over Greenland joining  an amplified North Pacific/N America with a trough associated with the Canadian vortex running south of the cell into the NW Atlantic. Thus the quite strong westerly upper flow is forced south of this complex and consequently has little impact on the UK which is under the auspices of a weak trough with little gradient, Difficult to asses the weather but probably portending changeable but fairly benign with temps around average.This evenings NOAA is in the same ball park

The later period is less amplified upstream and with the vortex lobe over northern Russia , and associated trough Scandinavia, playing a bigger role, there is a much stronger westerly flow over the UK facilitated by the subtropical high trying to push north.  This would perhaps indicate unsettled but  trending  towards a N/S split with temps varying around the average. NOAA not particularly keen on any subtropical high influence

Edited April 22, 2019 by knocker