Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

If this materialises, many peeps could see more thunder-days, in a five-day period, than in the whole of last summer? Though, having said that, ONE is hardly a tough total to beat!

image.thumb.png.af65b20946544157e4753111192c0a74.pngimage.thumb.png.eb126e6763a10a9f77b486e8b4f9f269.png  

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 6z operational tried to become wintry across the north, well, as wintry as it's possible to get in early may..fighting a losing battle.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

GFS continues to look rather unsettled and right out to the end of the run from mid week with a deep upper trough arriving from western UK, SE and London should cling on to some warmth and dryness but all areas should become under the influence of the trough by weekend. Need to make the most of the next 2 days.       

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

An 'interesting' end to the FV3: :oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.17672737fdfd48323fbfd93341196fc1.pngimage.thumb.png.fa4f9bceae5fff31771d1aae776d245a.png 

And, as for the Ensemble? For a moment there, I thought I was looking at post-Brexit growth-predictions!:oops:

image.thumb.png.5921fb225ccb82558a555b96c8fc0643.png 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Not bad:oldgood:

5_372_850tmp.png

5_372_2mtmpmax.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the extended GEFS 6z mean there are hints of improvement near the end, running through the perturbations there is some support for high pressure but before that it currently looks like a prolonged changeable / unsettled and compared to the current heat, much cooler outlook probably dominated by sunshine and heavy showers with occasionally more persistent rain and breezy / windy periods.

21_378_500mb.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Yes Karl things more unsettled for perhaps 10 days, before  I think pressure rises and things become warmer and more settled. So perhaps rather than some saying... Make the most of the next 2 days, it should be, make the most of the next 10 day's rainfall, because we are staring down the barrel of a long dry spring and even drier long summer!! Another 4+ months of many fine and very warm spells me thinks

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So perhaps rather than some saying... Make the most of the next 2 days, it should be, make the most of the next 10 day's rainfall, because we are staring down the barrel of a long dry spring and even drier long summer!! Another 4+ months of many fine and very warm spells me thinks

Exactly, the current weather seems to be a carbon copy of this time last year.  In fact, the CFS v2 summer forecast almost looks a carbon copy of last year, too!  May and June in particular look very warm/hot and dry with July potentially pretty good, also.  August perhaps not so good, but that’s a long way off anyway.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The high res sat image at midday and the upper and medium cloud showing up on the Camborne sounding And potentially unstable from 3000-10,000 ft?

modis.thumb.JPG.550f6cabc86bd479dd78ded984e2e7d1.JPG2019042212.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.b9648444c93689f4a4492428b2b65b2a.gif

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, Don said:

Exactly, the current weather seems to be a carbon copy of this time last year.  In fact, the CFS v2 summer forecast almost looks a carbon copy of last year, too!  May and June in particular look very warm/hot and dry with July potentially pretty good, also.  August perhaps not so good, but that’s a long way off anyway.

Point well made Don, I think Mike Poole is seeing a similar scenario. Would be completely amazing if this summer was a repeat of last year! Statistically its unlikely, but like you will be aware, these are not normal times.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Now into high Res so Net-wx take on tomorrow's Cape. Will likely change and the good old radar will be the one to watch as usual..

721481655_viewimage-2019-04-22T164531_948.thumb.png.4fc36b2b39713c2dced152b3ce8d689f.png718549402_viewimage-2019-04-22T164548_517.thumb.png.fb20bb369bd99fc4bba321afc290958b.png530654283_viewimage-2019-04-22T164726_827.thumb.png.6bd26a5a1bc43f344a2fafafb1940765.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nowt much new, with the GFS...Thursday still looks unsettled with average temps:

 image.thumb.png.0eb9f831182321517093a88b832f48fe.png image.thumb.png.26d7d7e08e2db690ac29918157555912.png 

Just how haywire will the longer-term outlook go, though?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ukmo 12h shows improvement in the weather by T+144 hours, especially further s / se.

UW144-21.gif

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The ukmo 12h shows improvement in the weather by T+144 hours, especially further s / se.

UW144-21.gif

GFS 12Z is trending in the same direction, Karl -- it could 'waft' after all?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.3f97e535c575bb1c7df43e1eec9dbdec.pngimage.thumb.png.ff489d34bc0ded30af1037937ff9ac1e.png 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational this could turn into an interesting week with bands of heavy thundery rain pushing north at times and turning chilly enough for snow on higher hills in the north..it's welcome rain which will put out all those moor fires that were probably started deliberately!

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GFS 12Z is trending in the same direction, Karl -- it could 'waft' after all?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.3f97e535c575bb1c7df43e1eec9dbdec.pngimage.thumb.png.ff489d34bc0ded30af1037937ff9ac1e.png 

bods, I see the laughing smiley is back? who had the giggles? essex snowman I think

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm glad to see the threat of prolonged cold dreichness reduce; a much more benign run (so far!) -- once the thunderstorms are out of the way!:oldgood:

 image.thumb.png.cef9846650c40743d6aa2de1c6b69660.png image.thumb.png.52d248f1ac4b1dfe8505df3e1dd11d99.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Arctic Northerly from the 6z gone, surprise surprise and replaced with a warmer southerly into the early days of may on the 12z.

12_264_mslp850.png

12_264_uk2mtmp.png

12_264_ukthickness850.png

12_276_ukthickness850.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The goodness for that...The 12Z ends on a much more positive note than the 06Z did!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.2b664fd6a526da371136c197ed194435.pngimage.thumb.png.528e84faea8f6548d63733c7950841c4.png 

Let's just hope that the FV3 does likewise?

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 12z para also indicates some weak ridging for the south at the weekend, especially on sunday but probably no more than a suckers gap in the generally unsettled disturbed pattern which cranks up again into the following week but I would suggest the south has the best chance of drier, brighter and warmer interludes during the upcoming unsettled and much cooler phase.

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm thinking that Tuesday and Wednesday nights'll both be warm...CET could even go above 9C?

image.thumb.png.329ef721fa7d90fde6430249ba7fcebb.pngimage.thumb.png.a8d5592e6aaf89a3489f59aff4c63d3e.png :oldgood:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Sunday's 'suckers' gap' to be followed by convection heaven??️:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.f91d46c798016f13afda7174b8d49799.pngimage.thumb.png.b2a5a975171de64998ddeedcf69cd76f.png 

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking longer term the GEFS 12z mean is much better isn't it folks.

GFSAVGEU12_312_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_336_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_348_1.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...