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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

We may have to wait a wee while, for the return of El Scorchio!

image.thumb.png.29b8bf959c407d92dbf18790dac990e7.pngimage.thumb.png.2485e889d19cd869f221cf6478264b9a.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It wasn't easy, in fact it was very difficult but I managed to find a good one from the GEFS 6z

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12_300_850tmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

FV3's showing some promise: image.thumb.png.87e7f4caba59a7aacdeea4758e5c2e1c.png                                                                           image.thumb.png.9b5d20797569f450f1b28887fd1d7165.png

The ensemble, not so much:    image.thumb.png.30909228cd2e45a96c9979c8579d2bae.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
8 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Autumnal?..more like normal spring compared to the current summery spell.

I know its spring but its going to feel like Autumn, especially with Sub 528DAM modelled by Mr and Mrs GFS over much of the UK as we go into May.
Daytime maxes around 10C at midday across uk with widespread frost over night. It would give a feel of mid-November.  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=33&run=0&time=300&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Mr and Mrs ECM paint a similar picture too:: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&time=240&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24

 

Wish you could remember its only Spring ...  As for your latest post I wouldn't get too excited about the GEFS 6z, as both Mr GFS and Mr ECM hint at northern blocking taking hold in May, Although this time more to the north west of the UK tending to keep us cooler and showery.            

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Nick L
Unnecessary inflammatory remarks removed
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

FV3's showing some promise: image.thumb.png.87e7f4caba59a7aacdeea4758e5c2e1c.png                                                                           image.thumb.png.9b5d20797569f450f1b28887fd1d7165.png

The ensemble, not so much:    image.thumb.png.30909228cd2e45a96c9979c8579d2bae.png

I dont think the gfs has got a handle on this Pete, definitely some unsettled conditions by midweek and perhaps widely unsettled by next weekend... But beyond that warmer and settled Conditions look like returning by early May! Another good update from exeter also... Make the most of the rain next week folks, Summer will be back.... I'm gonna do an @ANYWEATHER but the other way round and say we could be looking at one of the warmest and driest May's on record!!! Remember where you heard it first folks!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
18 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I dont think the gfs has got a handle on this Pete, definitely some unsettled conditions by midweek and perhaps widely unsettled by next weekend... But beyond that warmer and settled Conditions look like returning by early May! Another good update from exeter also... Make the most of the rain next week folks, Summer will be back.... I'm gonna do an @ANYWEATHER but the other way round and say we could be looking at one of the warmest and driest May's on record!!! Remember where you heard it first folks!!

I agree, Matt...the the weather is up in the air!:oops:

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Keep petty arguments out of this thread please. Let's all grow up.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I know the FV3 doesn't get very good ratings it would seem, but I does deliver the next warm/hot spell just in time for the next Bank Holiday. This is chalk and cheese with the GFS itself that continues the general theme of rather cool and unsettled, perhaps even on the cold side if more northerly winds get in. Should the FV3 be closer to the mark, it'd be uncanny how similar the progression would be to last year which had a warm weekend this weekend, a cold and wet one to end April, then a corker of a May Day Bank Holiday. Just shows how topsy turvy this time of year can be - not settled for long at all.

In the meantime, I've got my eyes on convective potential from late Tuesday onwards!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Thundery trough runs northward, but the air immediately behind it still looks to be slightly warm:

image.thumb.png.6279c26587330ba0cfcbada74ea168dd.pngimage.thumb.png.d43cefcb6c522ae6b6c970d517cd67aa.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Scope for something convective tomorrow.

1903270077_viewimage(90).thumb.png.d283f7489088fa832760fc1dd135480e.png1337335243_viewimage(91).thumb.png.e134c3bb9b977942f1c82cb1ccf7c9ae.png

But Tuesday looks more interesting out West.

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the ukmo 12h towards T+144 the main focus for the unsettled weather transfers to northern uk with signs of improvement further south..in the meantime we still have a few more days of this incredibly warm (for the time of year) and sunny spell to enjoy..or endure if you don't like it.

UW144-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the complete ukmo 12h we can see that tomorrow and tuesday it's more of the same gorgeous very warm weather but then midweek we see a breakdown to heavy showers and thunderstorms moving north on what still looks a warm day, not as warm but probably feeling warmer due to increased humidity and there will still be plenty of sunshine around but thereafter it turns much more unsettled, cooler and breezy, even windy in places with bouts of rain interspersed with sunshine and heavy showers.

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UW72-21.gif

UW96-7.gif

UW96-21.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And the mighty GFS predicts a short, sharp burst of welcome warmth, come tomorrow week.:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.9aeaab9133dbdb1a0e78d636f5829d73.pngimage.thumb.png.01fed9b3c6370d5be4519fcca3d0d5a9.pngimage.thumb.png.fc7fc055d5f60831f14ebc828bb3fd71.png

Note: The NW editor thingie keeps shuffling my images!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And the mighty GFS predicts a short, sharp burst of welcome warmth, come tomorrow week.:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.9aeaab9133dbdb1a0e78d636f5829d73.pngimage.thumb.png.01fed9b3c6370d5be4519fcca3d0d5a9.pngimage.thumb.png.fc7fc055d5f60831f14ebc828bb3fd71.png

Note: The NW editor thingie keeps shuffling my images!

And then it snows..for some further north into the start of May:crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Repeated pushes of tropical maritime will do me just fine!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.5a6c39dbed4255636ff71b1cc90ae626.pngimage.thumb.png.2daee4706a263391814f2a9567a7489e.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Ed Stone said:

Repeated pushes of tropical maritime will do me just fine!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.5a6c39dbed4255636ff71b1cc90ae626.pngimage.thumb.png.2daee4706a263391814f2a9567a7489e.png 

That's the spirit Ed!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Encouraging to see the azores high flexing it's muscles towards the end of the Gfs 12z operational 

12_360_mslp500.png

12_360_uk2mtmp.png

12_384_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

That's the spirit Ed!!!!!!

Even this coming (according to the FV3) Thursday looks like seeing temps well up to average, and maybe a touch above...Some beefy showers around too:

 

image.thumb.png.69b331d56cefd15200fd69e069f085a8.pngimage.thumb.png.8ce491d11b116a87c2c850a13eaab221.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And a wee waft of TM ought to make for a warm, close Saturday night, for the SE at least?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.b3031468310d99d7547f236f352a6a66.pngimage.thumb.png.9f890c6921a5341d3b6c7dd4cfb3a4b2.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Almost a plume..this could be the year of the plums..I mean plumes!!

GFSPARAEU12_300_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Almost a plume..this could be the year of the plums..I mean plumes!!

GFSPARAEU12_300_2.png

And, just after that, we're stuck under a slack blob of low pressure...yet more convective potential?

image.thumb.png.6a9e909a0d030186f48113b6f321c456.pngimage.thumb.png.3e5092ab87105ce499e8486537483557.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Encouraging GEFS 12z mean longer term with signs that the azores high could be ridging our way and even the chance of a fully developed anticyclone either anchored over or very close to the uk in early May.

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